I am not sure whose idea it was to apply this pic in this article. Was it the intention of the author or the editor ? I can guess only. The author Smirnov seems to be quoted lately by The Maritime Executive Magazine . I think it is his 2nd or 3rd article with UKC issues and in general navigation in confined waters..
Editors often insert some inadequate pic but then add and frequently do not add a remark, that the pic is for illustrative purposes only.
Since You were so accurate in providing an example of comparable situation of a car on ice , could You pls apply your critical mind to the topic below as it has been noticed your comment is missing and I am pretty certain it will be very valuable.
It will be very much appreciated if You also could comment on this - expectation bias thing.
I am not sure i understand well this somewhat new phrase in this NTSB recent accident report.
Is it a kind of euphemism that justifies or softens/dilutes the fact, that a navigator despite clear old fashioned and tested warnings “ do not make decisions on scanty and unreliable information, do not rely on floating aids to navigation while fixing position , do not rely on single mode of position fixing if others are available “ , is not following this ancient rules of thumb expecting that all should be all right when the results of his actions disprove such optimism.
It is a nautical topic but since You have found parallels in car driving on ice then i am wondering if engineers can come up with similar situations in their field of experitise.