The Heavy Tail Safety Ceiling

Interesting article and concept. About autonomous cars, but has wider applicability.

Implicit in the discussion is recognition of a shortcoming of all automated systems compared to a human: they can’t improvise.

Cheers,

Earl

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I didn’t plow through the whole article, but I suspect an experience I had on a commuter flight may illustrate. It was a short-hop flight from Houston to Corpus Christi on a commuter aircraft. There was some delay in departing the gate, and the Captain came on the speaker to apologize. He explained that the computers generally do a good job of arranging luggage and cargo stowage, but it had it wrong this time, and rearranging of the load was being done. I didn’t think more about it until I got to baggage pick-up, where I saw dozens of small bowling ball bags . It turns out the International bowling championships were in Corpus Christi and every contestant had one or more personal bowling balls. I guess bad things happen if they’re all stowed aft.

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Great example. The article was a bit dense and could have used an illustration or two, but I find the concept of surprises (having encountered more than a few in my day) compelling, as is the notion that surprises can arrive at a rate, and with a diversity, that overwhelms your development team’s ability to respond with updates.

I think zero-day exploits against Windows software follows this pattern.

Cheers,

Earl

Implicit in the discussion is also a recognition of the shortcomings of us humans. We don’t deal well with boredom and routine. Concentration 24x7 is hard.

I love the humans can think computers cant by F1 Driver Jackie Stewart
He was racing at the Nurburgring, lots of blind corners, he was coming into one and could small cut grass, he mind said a car has gone off, slowed and without doing that would have joined the crash around the corner.

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