Crap.
Take a bit of info…
and
s41467-019-12808-z.pdf (3.7 MB)
I believe that both papers use the RCP8.5 scenario for their calculations. The RCP8.5, if true, would indeed result in severe flooding. RCP8.5, in my opinion, is a worse case scenario and not the most likely path. Sea level trends since 1996 have remained at or below the “Intermediate” NOAA projections for sea level rise so I suspect that RCP8.5 is not the best scenario to use here.
Once the ice over Greenland melts, the sea will rush in and melt the rest.
As Greenland is well below sea level, how far will the global sea level drop to fill that area?
This is what I hear when ever I go to an emergency management conference if there is a guest speaker from NOAA. Generally it isn’t the 1’ that will get you, it is the increasing intensity of storm events, and worse tide and coastal flooding events. Even with only .5’ rise in average levels, when combined with a decent tropical storm with a good storm surge or heavy rainfall, or well timed high tide it can cause widespread disaster. We will see these disasters with increasing frequency and intensity. It also becomes an economic question of how to plan for and recover from these disasters. Sure you can rebuild, but at some point it doesn’t make financial sense to if it is a huge drain on the economy.
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Sea level rose about 20 cm (8 inches) during the 20th century so it stands to reason the 21st century will likely exceed this. My best estimate is 50 cm (1.65 feet).
Melting ice from Greenland has been estimated to contribute between 0.6 to 0.8 mm/yr to the overall sea level rise rate. At this rate the meltwater would add about 2 inches to the sea level by 2100. If the melt rate for Greenland ice doubled between now and 2100 then we would expect a total contribution of just over 3 inches.
WRONG!!
When land based ice melts sealevel will increase around the world.
WHY!!!
Since that ice is mostly above sealevel melting creates much more volume than the amount require to fill void left below sealevel.
PS>Greenland and Antarctica will both show up to be several island, not the world’s largest island and a continent, respectively
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WHY ( 2 )
To say it plain: Melting of pack ( ocean water ) is quite irrelevant in sea level terms, melting of land glaciers instead will add all its volumes to the sea.
Anyway the shrinking of pack exposes inland ice, so more trouble - it happens in Antarctica -
Just another comment: all of these topics are real but the public perception is controversial.
Clue is the timescale, short for the environment yet too long for humans for an overall appreciation.
Another one, to raise the spirit: Less ice cover ( anywhere ) means less sunlight reflection and then more heating… and so on.
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I’ve dug out data and you’r right.
fredwxTop Contributer
I believe that both papers use the RCP8.5 scenario for their calculations.
Anyway as an engineer I’m accustomed to work on worst case scenery, if you prevent it anything less would be OK.
Sorry being late to answer but i had to chew it at all…
From smp.no today: (Google Translation)
Warns of storm surge in northwestern Norway
Water can penetrate into houses, for example in the center of Ålesund.
This is something that people in the Northwest are quite used to. On the night of 11 February 2020, the sea rose to 300 cm above chart zero in Ålesund. Water entered several houses, including in the center of Ålesund , during the extreme weather «Elsa».
Storm surge in Ålesund February 2020. PHOTO: STAALE WATTØ
Only a month before, 15 January, the sea level was up to 291 cm in Ålesund , the Mapping Authority’s search service See sea level shows .
This time it can be almost as bad. On Friday 4 February at 1 pm, 288 cm have been reported.
It is very rare that the sea level in Ålesund has exceeded 300 cm above chart zero. The last time was during the extreme weather «Dagmar» Christmas 2011. Then the sea level reached 304 cm. The highest observed water level in Ålesund is 309 cm. It was January 12, 1993.
Just a taste of what could be the norm in the not too far future??
Is “chart zero” the same as mean sea level?
Fred Pickhardt
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From smp.no today: (Google Translation)
Warns of storm surge in northwestern Norway
Water can penetrate into houses, for example in the center of Ålesund.
This is something that people in the Northwest are quite used to. On the night of 11 February 2020, the sea rose to 300 cm above chart zero in Ålesund. Water entered several houses, including in the center of Ålesund , during the extreme weather «Elsa».
Storm surge in Ålesund February 2020. PHOTO: STAALE WATTØ
Only a month before, 15 January, the sea level was up to 291 cm in Ålesund , the Mapping Authority’s search service See sea level shows .
This time it can be almost as bad. On Friday 4 February at 1 pm, 288 cm have been reported.
It is very rare that the sea level in Ålesund has exceeded 300 cm above chart zero. The last time was during the extreme weather «Dagmar» Christmas 2011. Then the sea level reached 304 cm. The highest observed water level in Ålesund is 309 cm. It was January 12, 1993.
Just a taste of what could be the norm in the not too far future??
Wrong
please read my post…
frozen fresh water takes up more space than liquid so when the ice over the land that is underwater the sea level will go down.
Sure ice not floating and above sea level will raise the level
Whats the ratio?
Very little data on the land level of Greenland
is that all air pressure related?
Chart Zero = Chart Datum, which is the term used as refr. for depths shown on nautical charts and tide tables.
PS> The article was Google Translated from Norwegian.
Google translator operate verbatim, (word for word) not caring much about whether a sentence make sense or not.
You’ve touched some interesting points
We can start with Wiki:
And also take a look at:
Sorry but Wikipedia is as usual the fastest way for info.
The Greenland Ice Cap is >3000 m, thick, mostly above sealevel, thus only a small amount of the meltwater will go to fill the void left behind.
All you want (and need) to know about the Greenland Ice Cap:
PS> The Antarctic Ice Cap is even larger in volume to contribute to sea level rise:
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Chart Datum is an arbitrary point chosen below the lowest astronomical tide so that the lowest tide still remains a positive number. This simplifies things for us simple mariners as we can use the tide tables to calculate the height of tide for any particular time and add it to the charted depth to obtain the actual depth.
Call me simple but if ice that has been frozen for thousands of years appears to be thawing now, how does that not contribute to sea level rise? Why is this ice thawing at a faster rate than the last few hundred years?
Melting ice from Greenland has been estimated to contribute between 0.6 to 0.8 mm/yr to the overall sea level rise rate. At this rate, the meltwater will add about 2 inches to the sea level by 2100. If the melt rate for Greenland ice doubled between now and 2100 then we would expect a total contribution of just over 3 inches.
How about sea level rise and fall from techtonic plate movement, that is on going.
Underwater volcano’s etc
I dont understand why people think the world should be static?
Plenty of places to flood to drop sea level if needed
Very hard to find any data on the land under Greenlands ice, looks like its not been surveyed?