Projected LNG Exports

Taking an average of 12.5 BCM from this article and an average LNG tanker size of 130,000 CM that works out to a pretty rough average 1800+ shipments of gas PER WEEK in the year 2020. How does that sound to the rest of you boys? Sounds pretty good to me…

U.S. To Ship 10-15 Bcm LNG A Year To Europe From 2020 -Wood Mac

[/B]BRUSSELS, Nov 12 (Reuters) – The United States is likely to export 10-15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year to Europe from 2020, although it will ship much more to Asian markets, a report by Wood Mackenzie showed.

The discovery of vast amounts of shale gas has transformed the United States from a gas importer into a potential exporter, with its first shipments of super-cooled gas expected from the middle of this decade.

The lion’s share of the new U.S. exports are likely to go to Asia to take advantage of higher prices, the report said. LNG currently trades above $17 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in Asia, compared with around $10.50 per mmBtu in Europe.

Wood Mackenzie said most European utility gas buyers see their future supply prospects as adequate already due to forecasts for weak demand growth and to the likelihood of additional gas supplies via pipelines.

A number of global companies with a large LNG portfolio and a presence in Europe are nevertheless likely to ship U.S. LNG to European markets to offload spare volumes, Wood Mackenzie said.

“We believe Europe will receive significant volumes of U.S. LNG, over 10 mmtpa post-2020. However, most of this will likely be the result of global LNG dynamics, and flows will be volatile in nature,” said Massimo Di

Odoardo, Wood Mackenzie’s principal analyst for European gas research.

Europe-based companies such as Centrica and GDF Suez have already signed deals to buy U.S. LNG.

Wood Mackenzie expected spare U.S. LNG cargoes to head to more liquid European markets, such as the Netherlands and Britain, when high market prices offer opportunities. (Reporting by Karolin Schaps; editing by Jane Baird)

130,000 m³ is quite small. Even the Russians are looking at 170,000 m³ for the Yamal project, and that has to sail in ice as well. If you’re just crossing the Atlantic or the Pacific ocean, surely you could have a bigger ship?

Let’s make it US flagged cargo preference to deliver this gas and then we are talking. I like to dream too.

Even if the average size was 200,000 CM we’re still talking about 1,200 shipments per week. Right now that would be inconceivable.

150,000 cm is a big ship. Not a vlcc or anything but the real next bump up at the Qmax(266000 cm) is like 1150’x175’. I see that as more of an offshore load thing than a conventional terminal. They hit the dock but we are talking specialized tanker ports.

Maybe the screwed up and are talking in terms of gas, not liquid? Misprint/misswritten perhaps?

Factor in about a 600/1 volume difference between gas/lng assuming 200,000 a ship you’re talking 125 cargos a year. Seems more feasible.

I think they meant gas volume not liquid volume. Which as zdrive states is 600 times less volume as a liquid and 125 loads/yr is not out the question.

I think you are on to something here.

15,000 million m3 per year LNG export is abt 85,000 shiploads per year

Liquid or gas, that’s still a crap-load of LNG we’ll be exporting. Let’s just hope a lot of it is on American bottoms…