NHC Atlantic

Eastern Pacific also seeing some weather:


TD 13

TD 14

We’re still offshore heading in hopefully before midnight. Should beat the wind into Fourchon by 6-8 hours based on the current forecast. Coming through Belle Pass jetties in storm force is sketchy at best.

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From NHC

Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time: the primary graphic, which identifies the time window that users at individual locations can safely assume will be free from tropical-storm-force winds. Specifically, this is the time before which there is no more than a 1-in-10 (10 percent) chance of seeing the onset of sustained tropical-storm-force winds – the period during which preparations should ideally be completed for those with a low tolerance for risk.

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Significant change in forecast track.

Little if any significant change in strength is expected due to Laura moving pretty much down the spine of Hispaniola and Cuba
during the the next 36 hours, …

The intensity forecast remains tricky with Marco due to its small
size and marginal environment. There are some models that briefly
relax the shear today, which will likely be enough of a change to
allow Marco to reach hurricane strength.

In Kennebec’s post above, it’s the next one following Rene that is due to come off the coast in a few days that seems to be a problem.

Here are the GFS and ECMWF shots for 17 Sep, from Windy.

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I paid my dearly proud rates on insurance on OBX last month. Almost want one of these things to make landfall. But not really. Giant pain in the ass with flooding.

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