Developing El Niño in 2026 Will there be a Super El Nino?

Maritime News Marine Weather
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The Pacific is entering a transition phase in 2026, and while ENSO-neutral conditions are currently in place, the latest guidance from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center points toward a likely shift to El Niño this summer. But as always with spring forecasts, the details—especially strength—remain uncertain.

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Things are looking up, like sea surface temp. Your monthly map shows ENSO3.4 getting quite red - even more so in this daily…

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And compare 2026 rate of rise to 2023…

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P.S. I really miss the FNMOC site!

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Maybe more rain for Texas, can always use it.

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In the ENSO 3.4 area the SST anomaly has been steadily increasing from below normal into the normal range with a notable jump upward in the past week.

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Saw this a few days ago…
How confident should we be in a prediction of El Niño? | ECMWF

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I agree “Models indicate that a moderate El Niño is likely, and many allow for the possibility of a strong event, but it is too early to assign high confidence to those outcomes”.

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"The Mercator Ocean International ocean monitoring bulletin is now available, analysing why April 2026 is on track to be the second-warmest April on record. "