[QUOTE=alcor;51881]I take a flight from A to B. I don’t know who has serviced the plane and have no idea if the ‘competent’ pilot slept well the night before or enjoyed himself out on the town. I don’t know how old the plane is and haven’t checked the weather forecast. I hope they’ve fuelled the plane! I hope the runway is clear of debris. I hope traffic control are awake!
But I get on the plane and fly from A to B. I have taken many risks! Hopefully, the journey goes well. If not, Joe Public will create hell and get to the bottom of the reason for the plane’s failure. But, Planes do crash, even though we use all our resources to prevent such accidents.
The energy supplied to my home comes from many sources. The general public don’t ask too many questions about the source, suffice to say ‘I get mine’! Then, Fukushima disaster occurs, and we discover the engineering and location of the plant have seriously compromised the public health. But, no-one cried before the event. Engineers built the site to withstand an earthquake of a certain tremor value. But the quake exceeded this value with consequential results. Risk was mathematically and scientifically calculated with the odds of such a catastrophic event occurring being practically nil. Risk cannot be nullified in a dynamic world. We think we can manage the risk, but don’t allow for extreme circumstances.
Now, we drill wells all over the world and we know that every single one has a chance of blowing if we don’t manage the risk. To manage the risk we have to understand what’s going on in the well. Once in a blue moon, we get a situation where the well’s barriers are compromised, and those on the vessel, who deal with risk all day long, must take action to remedy the situation and return risk levels to minimum. In the case of the Macondo, the well’s barriers were compromised and no-one knew! Or, they were gambling with risk!
My feeling is that they on the DF conducting the negative test understood the intention of the test, but something happened to cloud their reasoning, and they accepted the test! They did not identify the risk of continuing with the ‘watered down’ test for whatever reason!
I have never suggested that this shouldn’t be investigated, Blisters! I’ve always stuck by the fact that a negative test failure isn’t the end of the world. we still have our other monitoring systems in place to identify the well’s barrier failure, and to re-establish control. This monitoring did not exist, and there wasn’t anyone available to interpret the signs of impending disaster until it was too late. And, recall the emergency in the North Sea, where a well that was proven with a negative test went on to fail in very similar circumstances to the Macondo, during displacement. It was intercepted by a TO observant Driller who understood how to respond to pressure and volume anomalies. The well was managed and the risk to personnel and vessel nullified.
We move on by learning what went wrong, Blisters. We are not in denial. And, I agree with you that this must not happen again and we must ensure we take all required action to do this. But, it won’t stop us drilling and we may just come across this situation again. Remember, this crisis had to get through 2 Company Men, an OIM, A Toolpusher and a Driller. None of them intercepted the signs!!! And, the Logger was dismissed from monitoring, And, the Swaco displacement plan was deficient. It mounts up!!! Risk cannot be completely eradicated.
Meantime, the Gov’t aren’t interested so much in what went wrong as who will pay for it, and the circus of in-fighting is the result. Later, we’ll blame various bodies for their deficiencies, and all the contractors will be answerable then, including the BP Co Men overseeing the negative test. And, even the Gov’t for not ensuring onshore confirmation documentation of the test passing.
Risk, will decrease because of action being taken as a consequence of this disaster, but it will not be eliminated. ‘Totally avoidable risk’, Blisters, does not exist! We work with acceptable levels of risk believing we are managing to withstand an accident or incident.
But, the culture of vengeance which exists in the US means that when something goes wrong we look for a single wealthy party to swallow the Whole Cake, not a slice or two, the whole shebang! When it’s thought to be foreign, we definitely think of the whole cake, and maybe two or three cakes…and if the offending company is wealthy enough, we’ll work on 1000 cakes, a sufficient number to temporarily revive the local economy of…the GOM! We don’t seek understanding, we seek retribution! So, initially we lynch the most obvious candidate, BP, the Operator of the vessel. We’re not that concerned afterwards to discover anyone else had a hand in the disaster…unless it affects our slice of the 1000 cakes! But, it may upset everyone to discover that the media and Gov’t-led persecution of BP may compromise their slice of the cake when they wake up and smell the coffee![/QUOTE]
When you fly from A to B you have no control over how the airline does the job, unlike the level of control a companyman has over drilling operations on a rig hired by his handlers to do the job. One can’t compel a pilot to land an aircraft immediately or divert to another destination as this might amount to hijacking. On the other hand a companyman on a drilling rig can halt drilling or operations, if he knows something’s not right, like a negative test gone wrong or if he knows sufficient centralizers, and cement lab test reports were unavailable.
He can always refuse to carry out the job, rather than chose to play for very high stakes. In the case of the former he will be replaced, might get blacklisted or suffer economic hardship but he’ll sleep well for the rest of his life. Beats being a spineless weak cog in cart wheel that’s surely will give way sooner or later. When I board an airliner I trust the pilot will get me to my destination safely and promptly. This trust is based predominantly on the track record of that airline. I trust the pilot of the airline company I paid my fare to, has sufficient experience and flying hours. Being an airline of supposedly good repute, the thought that the pilot has only flown four single engine flights would never occur to me.
As member of the public I have a choice and have to base a large part of my decision on trust. I could pay top dollar for a seat on a decent airline or one on a cut price shonky airline. However if the wing falls off the cut-price airline in mid flight and I survive, I really need to admit I got what I paid for.The magnitude of the Fukushima disaster like the one on Boxing day was extraordinary. Your Fukushima analogy can’t be applied to Macondo because several deeper wells have been drilled successfully prior to Macondo.
What was extraordinary about Macondo compared to these previously drilled deeper wells ?
What if any were the extreme circumstances that you allude to in your analogy with Fukushima when it comes to BP’s Macondo ?
If risks were managed successfully on previous deeper wells that were P & S for production at a later date, what was different about MC252 ? What did it cost in comparison to previously drilled or similar wells ? Was it level of experience and training of persons in charge that was different ?..or did parties involved reckon they were such experts at drilling deepwater wells that it was Ok to send out company reps with only experience of a few land wells ? Were they mindfull of the potential for “extreme circumstances” .
Do you think cost cutting,shonky well design, sending out inexperienced company reps, mudmen who admit they have not done a well control course ? amounts to – gambling with risks- ? Could have, fatigue and pressure to finish up the job whilst visitors were on board "clouded their reasoning " ?
If risks are man made then they are indeed totally avoidable. Inherent risks such as a mag 7 earthquake emanating directly beneath a rig can’t but still might be manageable if some semblance of an action plan or emergency response is in place.
Economic pressures and Geopressures, like Manmade risks vs Inherent risk, are two very very different things. I hope you are’nt confusing one with the other. If you think manmade risks can’t be avoided then surely at least you must accept that they can be minimized provided we are willing to fork out for the necessary means, costs, equipment and time with which to do the job safely. All blowouts are avoidable – don’t you agree ?
I would also like to know what’s your take on personnel who lose their jobs when they report serious deficiencies at the work place and end up getting ostracized in the process? Do you think this is a main hidden root cause of disasters ?
P/S It is a big mistake to think that the public is dumb. Smacks of a snooty elitist mentality.