just in time for hurricane season…if we get a cat 4,kiss new orleans bye bye
the poor animals…not fair…this oil reminds me of that movie,“the blob”…we have to win this war with the oil.
[QUOTE=alcor;37626]…He’s talking about in the worst case scenario where the company goes bust. This won’t be good for the US economy and it will be very bad for the UK economy.
So what’s our position?
Shall we let BP go ‘under’?
The problem is that so much of the economic framework of our society is built in to the success of the major Oil Companies. When they cough, we get severe flu, possibly even pneumonia!!
Meantime, let’s get back to work.
My personal opinion is that BP won’t go down the tubes as long as they kill this well within the next 5 weeks. And, the whole world’s offshore community will learn from the Macondo disaster. Everything has changed, but we can still get back to work, and be monitored while performing the work. Obama, needs to let the oil industry get back to work.[/QUOTE]
I think Lehman, Bear, Merrill Lynch and AIG all assumed that they were indispensable to the economy too. BP’s assets, that is, producing wells/fields, can get rearranged; in fact, that is already happening. A good argument can be made that BP [B][I]needs[/I][/B] to go the way of Enron–even though the human toll of that consequence, that course is considerable.
I have known about the environmental consequences of our oil addiction ever since I used to have the former General Counsel of an independent oil company working for me (she was between GC jobs in the industry, and parked herself in my corner of the world for a while).
No one (that I have seen) is saying it, but I think a big part of the (actual) rationale for the moratorium is that 90 days (or so) is the bare minimum time needed to get the replacement agencies for the MMS up and running, and to assess what new regs are needed, get APRM’s (Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking) published in the Federal Register, and then follow the other procedures of the APA (Administrative Procedures Act). The administration already got their heads handed to them on a platter for ignoring APA procedures. Not that any of that is going to make any of y’all feel better; just sayin’.
http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605
This is the source of my video feeds that show the position of the top hat & all the ROV feeds. I know for a fact that I saw four 60’ pieces of riser leave out of Smith Services yard in Broussard this morning on permitted trucks, blocking Hwy. 90. I watched one of the ROVs early this morning checking the riser & they are evidently washing out due to sand & gas production. That means that they will have to pull the riser to change out the lower joints. The riser should be on location in the morning. This means the Dicovery Ship will have to pull & either rack back or lay down its riser to replace the bottom joints. This means they will not be catching 25,000 BPD. This means they should be paying $4300/ Bbl. in fines on oil they won’t be paying for. If BP can’t stop this thing then they should certainly pay the fines on what they allow to get away. If they continue to report full recoveries, even increased recoveries, this means they are lying & the federal government is lying right along with them. Why would the government lie? DIdn’t the president promise they would be recovering 90% of the oil by the end of this month? That might be why the government is lying to us right along with BP.
[QUOTE=company man 1;37586] Is it possible that BP is sending us loop video sometimes instead of live feed? [/QUOTE] It’s obviously possible, but I really doubt it. I’d ask BSC and the folks over at LATOC (http://www.doomers.us/forum2/), since they seem to be recording and reviewing a LOT of this. If they could find the same footage twice, labeled with different times then that would destroy the credibility of the entire ROV footage show.
[QUOTE=bnhpr;37550]
Everyone here thinks there an expert on BOP’s and who here has ever worked on one? Seen one? Seen a p&id of one? an actual photo of one?
Speak up with real experience. Otherwise stop speculating about a device you know nothing about.
[/QUOTE]
[ATTACH=CONFIG]997[/ATTACH]
Here’s a pic I took mid last year on the rig I was working. The BOP is similar to the one on DWH.
No that isn’t me in the pic, but it should give other people an appreciation of it’s size etc.
[QUOTE=GC Resident;37604] I would like to know is there any possibility the US officials would remove BP from this and turn it over to another company, with BP footing the bill of course [/QUOTE] Frankly, no. I don’t think the other companies with deepwater expertise have any better idea how to fix BP’s problem than BP do, and they would have to be insane to take on the challenge. If another company took it over it would become their nightmare.
If they had a way to stop it, surely it would have happened by now.
Exactly right. Take a step back. If it could be stopped, it would have been stopped. It is costing BP maybe a billion dollars a week to let this well flow. They have plenty of incentive to cap it. They can’t do it. You don’t need a conspiracy theory to explain this – they would cap it in the blink of an eye if they could.
[QUOTE=Alf;37640][ATTACH=CONFIG]997[/ATTACH]
Here’s a pic I took mid last year on the rig I was working. The BOP is similar to the one on DWH.
No that isn’t me in the pic, but it should give other people an appreciation of it’s size etc.[/QUOTE]
Now I have to ask a question. What are the two metallic gray lines that are arcing to the front and to the back of the BOP used for?
[QUOTE=alvis;37642]Now I have to ask a question. What are the two metallic gray lines that are arcing to the front and to the back of the BOP used for?[/QUOTE]
Top 2x are Coflex hoses connecting choke and kill lines between riser and BOP.
Bottom one (going towards btm LH corner) is a circulating line underneath the Upr Annular.
[QUOTE=alvis;37642]Now I have to ask a question. What are the two metallic gray lines that are arcing to the front and to the back of the BOP used for?[/QUOTE]
Aren’t those the Choke and the Kill lines coming down from the LMRP ?
[QUOTE=OneEyedMan;37639]It’s obviously possible, but I really doubt it. I’d ask BSC and the folks over at LATOC (http://www.doomers.us/forum2/), since they seem to be recording and reviewing a LOT of this. If they could find the same footage twice, labeled with different times then that would destroy the credibility of the entire ROV footage show.[/QUOTE]
They may not be looping the video, but they are surely fudging the numbers. Sunday the riser wasn’t even hooked up to the LMRP cap for 12 hours & the Q4000 was disconected for 4 hours & they claimed they recovered over 25,000 barrels. Then Monday morning the first cap blew off the well head & it wan’t even mentioned anywhere but here. Then that was replaced by the second cap. this blew off this morning & right now the riser still isn’t hooked up the last I saw. Now the well head is leaning some 12-15 degrees & before long they won’t be able to keep a cap on it due to the lean. Yet they are claiming their recovery rate is increasing. If you look at the feed they are giving most people it appears as though very little oil is coming out, but if you look at the other side you can see the darn cap is about to fall off & they aren’t catching crap. These people have been way more concerned about hiding their problem than fixing it.
[QUOTE=Alf;37640][ATTACH=CONFIG]997[/ATTACH]
Here’s a pic I took mid last year on the rig I was working. The BOP is similar to the one on DWH.
No that isn’t me in the pic, but it should give other people an appreciation of it’s size etc.[/QUOTE]
Is it feasible/possible to have a back up BOP stack on the rig so the rig can keep one maintained in order to change out in the event of a major repair that can’t be done subsurface?
[QUOTE=dell;37625]I realize, from Kasol’s posts, that the North Sea area has made greater efforts and progress to tie the rig to HQ as a single integrated unit/team. But the U.S. telemetry isn’t so lagging that such indications, such readings wouldn’t [B][I]also[/I][/B] have been seen in Houston, right? .[/QUOTE]
From TO DWH OIM Harrell’s testimony to CG&MMS Joint Hearing May 27, 2010
[LEFT][FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=2]Video streaming realtime to BP onshore question–
16 THE WITNESS:
17 Yeah. We do have CCTV on the rig.
18 BY MR. MATHEWS:
19 Q. Is that transmitted to the beach, as
20 well?[/LEFT]
21 A. No, it’s not.
[/SIZE][/FONT]… and on the real time drilling data going to BP on shore
[LEFT][FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=2]6 Q. Yes, sir. But I’m talking about items
7 or pertinences to the DEEPWATER HORIZON, the
8 Transocean vessel.
9 A. Yes. We have a return flow.
10 Q. And are those electronic?
11 A. Yes.
12 Q. And is the data recorded?
13 A. Yes. It is – well, I mean, it’s
14 recorded, but I – what are you talking about
15 recorded?
16 Q. That was my next question. Where is
17 it recorded?
18 A. They have a trend on the driller.
19 There’s various places throughout the rig you
20 can see that.
21 Q. Is it kept in an electronic data
22 format, like on a computer hard drive?
23 A. Well, yeah, you could – like I say,
24 you could back it up on there. You can back
25 up a trend.[/LEFT]
[LEFT]next page [108]
1 Q. Is it sent real time to the mainland?
2 A. BP gets – they’re able see everything
3 we do out there.
4 Q. In real time?
5 A. Real time. I know Sperry, you know,
6 they have – they have a real time data they
7 sent to town, not Transocean, but Sperry.
8 Q. I understand. But basically, prior to
9 the explosion, any of that data would have
10 been sent shoreside, correct?
11 A. Yeah. It should have been sent to[/LEFT]
12 shore.
http://www.deepwaterinvestigation.com/posted/3043/May_27_PDF.670139.pdf
[/SIZE][/FONT]
[QUOTE=company man 1;37648]Is it feasible/possible to have a back up BOP stack on the rig so the rig can keep one maintained in order to change out in the event of a major repair that can’t be done subsurface?[/QUOTE]
Sure, but don’t they cost like 30 or 40 million? Not to mention weighing 450,000 lbs. Not reasonably feasible for every rig, but I would have a spare if I was in charge of 3 or more rigs…
[QUOTE=company man 1;37648]Is it feasible/possible to have a back up BOP stack on the rig so the rig can keep one maintained in order to change out in the event of a major repair that can’t be done subsurface?[/QUOTE]
I believe most of the larger rigs could accomodate a second BOP. May have to do some moderate modifications to the moonpool area. And there is the stability factor with the added weight while ballasted down. If it were possible to place them on opposite/ diagonal sides of the moon pool it should help with stability. Sure would reduce the down time in the event of a major repair problem.
Financially, is a whole different story. I don’t know what the cost of a BOP is but it’s probably better than $1 million for a 15K stack. And you might have to add a couple Subsea hands to keep both of them ready to go. Both ideas are doable. Money is a big barrier to both.
Wasn’t money the reason we are here now. Day 65, post blowout, at a million dollars a day for the rig and crew. $65,000,000. Hmmm
Originally Posted by company man 1
Is it feasible/possible to have a back up BOP stack on the rig so the rig can keep one maintained in order to change out in the event of a major repair that can’t be done subsurface?
[QUOTE=lfgd521rc;37651]I believe most of the larger rigs could accomodate a second BOP. May have to do some moderate modifications to the moonpool area. And there is the stability factor with the added weight while ballasted down. If it were possible to place them on opposite/ diagonal sides of the moon pool it should help with stability. Sure would reduce the down time in the event of a major repair problem.
Financially, is a whole different story. I don’t know what the cost of a BOP is but it’s probably better than $1 million for a 15K stack. And you might have to add a couple Subsea hands to keep both of them ready to go. Both ideas are doable. Money is a big barrier to both.
Wasn’t money the reason we are here now. Day 65, post blowout, at a million dollars a day for the rig and crew. $65,000,000. Hmmm[/QUOTE]
Agree, deckloading, stability? and space would be the real issues. If I remember right, this BOP weighed in at around 600klbs. As for cost… don’t know… around 1million?
All are do-able though.
First let me qualify myself and say that I’m an ex-Reservoir Engineer, not a drilling engineer, so I defer to the more knowledgeable on this forum.
But I’ve been trying to think how drilling practises can be tightened up to enable business to carry on, so I’m just a sofa engineer thinking out loud (Res Eng’s are good at that).
There will be loads of new requirements for BOP’s, but many people suspect that the BOP wasn’t the real problem.
The cement job needed have a 100% probability of success on this well and it had a lot less probability than this. Because of the high pressures and the geology it really needed a 100% annular seal all the way from inside the last casing shoe to full depth. That, to my inexperienced eye, is what was needed - for me that is the simple criteria that needed to be applied. I’m thinking of ways you could get this.
Liner and Tieback is possibly better, I don’t know. Given you have a long string, wouldn’t a 2 stage cement job also do the job? Any other methods?
[QUOTE=Alf;37653]Agree, deckloading, stability? and space would be the real issues. If I remember right, this BOP weighed in at around 600klbs. As for cost… don’t know… around 1million?
All are do-able though.[/QUOTE]
What’s the typical annual downtime for BOP maintenance? If a spare would save a rig a few days each year sitting idle due to a recalcitrant BOP, then might not a spare pay for itself? You might want to design the rig to accommodate the second one from the get-go, as the design phase seems like a good time to structurally address the potential space/stability side effects of a spare…although it might also add to the cost equation.
If a leased rig is idle for BOP maintenance, who usually pays?
And as you’ve already inferred, no I don’t I have any relevant experience here, but I do find it a fascinating industry that marries geology, maritime matters, economics, engineering, and politics – all of which I often find quite interesting on their own.
[QUOTE=OneEyedMan;37639]It’s obviously possible, but I really doubt it. I’d ask BSC and the folks over at LATOC (http://www.doomers.us/forum2/), since they seem to be recording and reviewing a LOT of this. If they could find the same footage twice, labeled with different times then that would destroy the credibility of the entire ROV footage show.[/QUOTE]
It’s been over a week, but I was watching some top hat operation and all of a sudden the ROV put up a totally different video of all blue sea with a few white whatevers flicking through it. The time was now earlier and the clock didn’t advance or change, but the video was definitely a loop. At the time, I was on the Oil Drum and others were watching different feeds, but I made a comment there that whatever was going on, BP had evidently decided we’d seen enough and had changed the video to what I described above.
I’ll see if I can find that part of the 150,000 messages posted over there.[grin]
Lately there have been some rumors swirling about rain in the oil, ahem, I mean oil in the rain. I think the rumors mostly started from the following ‘sensational’ video.
Now as that’s the main bit of evidence for the rumor (which apparently made it onto huffington post), I don’t find it particularly credible. First, because if there really was oil-containing-rain falling on Louisiana creating dramatic oil slicks, local news would eat that up. Ignoring this video for a moment, http://www.care2.com/causes/environment/blog/is-it-raining-oil-in-louisiana/ contains a decent abbreviated overview of whether or not oil could end up in rain. Basically, it is technically possible. It’s also suggested that the dispersants could end up in rain water.
Since I’ve neither seen any new stories on the subject nor reports of oily rain here, I think this rumor is almost definitely false. That mess in the video looks more like there’s a leaking underground tank (incredibly common). That or someone poured out some oil. The video is too abbreviated and shows too little to be considered reliable evidence. Especially as it is apparently the only evidence.