Deepwater Horizon - Transocean Oil Rig Fire

Offshore
3081

[QUOTE=dell;36846]Alcor,

Re your #2964: alvis was summarizing this: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967 Now, is that rubbish, or not? Is the likely outcome, at this point, what dougr says:

"What is likely to happen now?

"Well…none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact…it’s about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don’t, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

"Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? …it won’t be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov’t must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

“All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit…after that, it goes into the realm of “the worst things you can think of” The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out…as I said…all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more.”

If not, why not? dougr’s piece is very well argued, and seemingly, well substantiated. I would expect a response, if your answer is negative, of equal quality.[/QUOTE]

Don’t expect him to answer. He never answers a direct question that can be debated & he will never back up his points with fruther points. He will instead ask why you have so much time to debate him or else try to throw the matter into another subject like the guilt of the MMS or the company man or TO.

3082

[QUOTE=dougr;36847]I like the discussion and TOD closed the comments to my piece so I reposted it here - http://gcaptain.com/forum/offshore/5236-deepwater-oil-spill-longer-term-problem.html

I am looking forward to reading more of your thoughts.[/QUOTE]
I Haven’t even opened your reference, but if you are the same guy that wrote the piece in the oil drum, I was very impressed with your ability to break down your points. You are missing one fact though. There are unfortunately 3 rupture discs in the well. These have gone form being safety devices to being flow paths for further damage to the well bore.

3083

[QUOTE=dell;36846]Alcor,

Re your #2964: alvis was summarizing this: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967 Now, is that rubbish, or not? Is the likely outcome, at this point, what dougr says:

"What is likely to happen now?

"Well…none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact…it’s about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don’t, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

"Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? …it won’t be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov’t must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

“All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit…after that, it goes into the realm of “the worst things you can think of” The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out…as I said…all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more.”

If not, why not? dougr’s piece is very well argued, and seemingly, well substantiated. I would expect a response, if your answer is negative, of equal quality.[/QUOTE]

Simple fact from day one: TO were responsible for the well control. Whatever the oil company decide in terms of how the well develops is irrelevant!
We are the drilling company. We are responsible for shut in.

3084

[QUOTE=jmccaski;36850]Here’s a good excuse. Wonder why I never thought of it

BP says MMS never enforced blowout preventer law

BP acknowledged in a recent letter that it has routinely failed to comply with a federal regulation requiring drilling companies to certify that their blowout preventers are able to block a runaway well.

But that’s because the Minerals Management Service, the government agency charged with overseeing offshore drilling operations, never asked the company to comply, officials wrote.[/QUOTE]

That is the biggest bullshit cop out I have ever heard. So your not going to make certain the devices that are ther to save your life work because the govenrnment hasn’t required it? Are you crazy?

3085

[QUOTE=Observer;36854]Can this problem be managed by drilling multiple relief wells?

Could a reservoir of this size be killed on a reasonable timescale (~5yr) through deliberate, massive, overproduction?[/QUOTE]
They will eventually kill it. It may take 4,5,8 more wells & time, time. Who the hell knows, but it is very unlikely they will get this thing done with one well. Hopefully two if everything holds out.

3086

[QUOTE=jmccaski;36850]Here’s a good excuse. Wonder why I never thought of it

BP says MMS never enforced blowout preventer law

BP acknowledged in a recent letter that it has routinely failed to comply with a federal regulation requiring drilling companies to certify that their blowout preventers are able to block a runaway well.

But that’s because the Minerals Management Service, the government agency charged with overseeing offshore drilling operations, never asked the company to comply, officials wrote.[/QUOTE]

Everyone is now an expert on BOP’s…Congress, media, public…

Has anyone here ever been on (worked on) a 15K stack? Operated one? Seen one?

3087

[QUOTE=company man 1;36864]They will eventually kill it. It may take 4,5,8 more wells & time, time. Who the hell knows, but it is very unlikely they will get this thing done with one well. Hopefully two if everything holds out.[/QUOTE]

I think if you go back in this thread my predictions have been pretty darn accurate. I only say that because what I’m about to say no one wants to accept but here’s my next prediction… if well goes to SH$&, as dougr says (and I’m only 505 sold on the idea it might happen before the relief wells are drilled) then the navy will blow it up. I’m not talking nukes, just run of the mill conventional explosives… a great big pile of them. They will spud in a double-wide wellhead right next to the BOP, drill-down a few hundred feet, load it up with TNT and BOOM.

Also, the rumor from here inside TOI, suggest that it’s going to take the DD3 a few attempts to find the well and finding it may take weeks. Supposedly they are using some fancy metal detectors to help find the well and the technology is not 100% proven.

3088

I have spent the past 5 hours watching the sub committee question Mr Hayward.
I can assure everyone on this website that there were fundamental flaws with this well. As part of a team of drilling contrators I can assure all of you that my rig will not burn. Why? Because we have systems in place to test our BOPs.
TO didn’t have well control or BOPs in place.
The simple fact is this: it doesn’t matter what is going on below the well head. The drilling contractor must always shut in if volumes or pressure control is lost.

3089

[QUOTE=dell;36857]cm1,

This isn’t an excuse for BP, but, if true, do you [I]begin[/I] to see what I was saying, above, about MMS being not without (secondary) culpability? The MMS you evidently knew and feared isn’t [U]this[/U] poodle.[/QUOTE]

Look Dell. You can call me as big of an MMS apologist as there has been. The facts have become painfully obvious to even me that there are at least a few & maybe many inside the MMS who have been corrupted & have brought scrutiny to the whole department & there is obviously a need for some kind of overhaul. I could only speak from my own experiences but I can not defend the complete gross incompetence they allowed BP to underatke any more. Some one or several need to go to prison along with many from BP for being accomplisses in the worst man made disaster in the history of the United States. I will unequivically state for the record that this does not absolve BP of their responsibility to follow API guide lines, which were not even considered & led directly to this disaster.
Edit: I will state that we must be very concerned about the Atlantis, due to the evident problems on the surface combined with internal emails among the BP drilling department about substandard cement jobs performed on at least one well on Atlantis.

3090

[QUOTE=bnhpr;36865]Everyone is now an expert on BOP’s…Congress, media, public…

Has anyone here ever been on (worked on) a 15K stack? Operated one? Seen one?[/QUOTE]

I have, and I’ve been in conditions where we need it. Our rig’s day rate is more than the DWH, and yet it is 30 years old. People in the GOM don’t understand the new rig technology.
Actually, I’ve been in a couple of hair-raising experiences. Individually, we know what we would do.
It’s not much fun when gas comes through the Poorbuoy.
It may be that the GOM isn’t content with supply.
Some other place can do that.

3091

[QUOTE=alcor;36868]I have spent the past 5 hours watching the sub committee question Mr Hayward.
I can assure everyone on this website that there were fundamental flaws with this well. As part of a team of drilling contrators I can assure all of you that my rig will not burn. Why? Because we have systems in place to test our BOPs.
TO didn’t have well control or BOPs in place.
The simple fact is this: it doesn’t matter what is going on below the well head. The drilling contractor must always shut in if volumes or pressure control is lost.[/QUOTE]

Isn’t that the mistake Jimmy made… relying on his Well Engineer and BOP? I don’t think their test procedures are the problem… the problem is the BOP’s stay underwater for months on end and the subsea engineers are under pressure to get PM’s done in the short period of time they ahve between wells.

Do you drill 6-9 month wells, or do your’s last only a few weeks?

3092

[QUOTE=cmjeff;36867]I think if you go back in this thread my predictions have been pretty darn accurate. I only say that because what I’m about to say no one wants to accept but here’s my next prediction… if well goes to SH$&, as dougr says (and I’m only 505 sold on the idea it might happen before the relief wells are drilled) then the navy will blow it up. I’m not talking nukes, just run of the mill conventional explosives… a great big pile of them. They will spud in a double-wide wellhead right next to the BOP, drill-down a few hundred feet, load it up with TNT and BOOM.

Also, the rumor from here inside TOI, suggest that it’s going to take the DD3 a few attempts to find the well and finding it may take weeks. Supposedly they are using some fancy metal detectors to help find the well and the technology is not 100% proven.[/QUOTE]
This is very disconcerting to me because of the placement of the well in correlation to the canyon wall & other platforms which run up & down the canyon wall & the possible ramifications of that. What if the blowing up of this location causes the canyon to suffer a major mud slide? They need to study these things now, before they are put in an urgent situation.

3093

[QUOTE=company man 1;36870]Look Dell. You can call me as big of an MMS apologist as there has been. The facts have become painfully obvious to even me that there are at least a few & maybe many inside the MMS who have been corrupted & have brought scrutiny to the whole department & there is obviously a need for some kind of overhaul. I could only speak from my own experiences but I can not defend the complete gross incompetence they allowed BP to underatke any more. Some one or several need to go to prison along with many from BP for being accomplisses in the worst man made disaster in the history of the United States. I will unequivically state for the record that this does not absolve BP of their responsibility to follow API guide lines, which were not even considered & led directly to this disaster.
Edit: I will state that we must be very concerned about the Atlantis, due to the evident problems on the surface combined with internal emails among the BP drilling department about substandard cement jobs performed on at least one well on Atlantis.[/QUOTE]

I know you have none. But, tell us truthfully, have you any experience of deepwater wells? Have you ever been on a semi submersible rig?
I’ve looked at many of your previous contributions and I feel you have no technical background at all.
I hope you aren’t in charge of offshore ops!

3094

[QUOTE=jmccaski;36843]Here’s what I saw… but I am not vouching for anything :slight_smile: I see that even the numbers he reports are not consistent.

http://markimoore.com/relief-well-status-as-of-june-16-2010/

Relief well status as of June 16, 2010

The primary relief well is currently at a depth of more than 15,000 feet. The relief well is beginning to angle at 23 degrees to intercept the MC252 well shaft. The well is being drilled by The Development Driller III and is approximately 11 days ahead of schedule.

The secondary or backup relief well , being drilled by The Development Driller II, has drilled the second relief well to a depth of 9,774 feet.

BP Oil Response Quick Reference Data

Relief Well Depth (DDIII) - 15,000+’ (16June10) primary well

Relief Well Depth (DDII) - 9,022’ (16June10) secondary well

Daily Oil collected - 18,600 barrels (16June10)

Total Oil collected - 180,737 barrels (4June10-16June10)

Daily Gas Flared - 40 mil. standard ft3 (16June10)[/QUOTE]

@jmccask - thanks for noticing the error on my website. I have since corrected the relief well status update data. Feel free to comment on any of the BP oil articles at http://markimoore.com

3095

Company Man , and Alcor, You guys are soooooo smart, and are helping us , who work outside the Oil Field Industry, understand, and get to the Truth of this matter, because, I personally rely on several sources, and not just the CNN, New York TImes… SO will you both, remember, you are giving us “outsiders” a great service. …AND get drunk or something together at pat o’brian’s and have a few Hurricanes for me,OR else I’m going to have Tony Hayward come give you, a big Kiss…NOW stop insulting one another.

3096

[QUOTE=markimoore;36876]@jmccask - thanks for noticing the error on my website. I have since corrected the relief well status update data. Feel free to comment on any of the BP oil articles at http://markimoore.com[/QUOTE]

It means nothing to anyone if you show your skill at prediction.
If TO had done there job we’d still habe DWH.
The whole well may have been screwed but TO had the ability to avert this dissater.

3097

[QUOTE=New Orleans Lady;36877]Company Man , and Alcor, You guys are soooooo smart, and are helping us , who work outside the Oil Field Industry, understand, and get to the Truth of this matter, because, I personally rely on several sources, and not just the CNN, New York TImes… SO will you both, remember, you are giving us “outsiders” a great service. …AND get drunk or something together at pat o’brian’s and have a few Hurricanes for me,OR else I’m going to have Tony Hayward come give you, a big Kiss…NOW stop insulting one another.[/QUOTE]

I don’t know if Co Man 1 is a good kissser…
but, if he can blame someone else there may be a result.

3098

[QUOTE=Cynthia;36805]I don’t know anything about o&g industry, but this is a dog and pony show, or more like a modern version of the colliseum games in the Roman Empire. All this political grandstanding and absurd questioning. Sheesh. I’m starting to feel defensive for BP, and for Tony Hayward. How about the other majors throwing BP under the bus in the hearing yesterday… now how convenient was that for them? It’s hardball.[/QUOTE]

Don’t be fooled. Tony feigned remorse throughout questioning to appear the underdog. He is good at this. Bear the memory of men who died on that rig, the pain and suffering their families and the rest of people living on the gulf coast are experiencing, the innocent helpless wildlife suffering and you will protect yourself from hypnotic effects Tony tries with that tone of voice he uses. Never lose sight that the damage as is, is irreparable. A whole ecosystem and culture poisoned and destroyed. Anyone who says they can make these whole again is kidding themselves and kidding you. Gulf coast folks can tell future generations stories of how it was but they won’t experience what grandpa is talking about. Spend a bit of time and check out this long winded drivel he is feeding young minds, at this youtube site. He cashes in on a situation where he had to face the mother of a worker who died on one of his wells to massage his ego in front of students. The rest of it is jammed packed with various delusional self serving statements. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwQM00clxgM&feature=related It is amazing that no one questioned him about when this investigation BP is conducting will be completed. It might go on forever until resolve for justice ebbs away or they might come up with inconclusive findings stating stuff like the BOP and other evidence was irretrievable. This guy and his company deserves no sympathy ! Don’t be duped into believe anything they say until they deny it.

3099

I think Cynthia, is such a gentle soul, she can’t imagine, people can be so trickey, and decieving

3100

[QUOTE=company man 1;36874]This is very disconcerting to me because of the placement of the well in correlation to the canyon wall & other platforms which run up & down the canyon wall & the possible ramifications of that. What if the blowing up of this location causes the canyon to suffer a major mud slide? They need to study these things now, before they are put in an urgent situation.[/QUOTE]

They will shut-in everything nearby or that runs through the canyon and fill all pipes with seawater. After the explosion they test everything and the stuff that leaks will need to be rebuilt around the “mud slide”. If it can’t be rerun economically then the effected rigs will be shutdown.