It shouldn’t be too hard to resolve the hypothesis/counter hypothesis about the DNV conclusions. Just build a test rig that duplicates the geometry the DNV asserts is the case, put a hydraulic ram on the end of the pipe and see a) how much pressure it takes to make it bend and b) whether it really does spring back to straight after the pressure is relieved. Sheesh. Places like Sandia Labs do this sort of thing all the time. As far as computer models go, I’m with statistician (and model builder) George Box who once said: “All models are wrong but some are useful.” Useful to suggest what may be tested in a real experiment.
Cheers,
Earl