[QUOTE=lm1883;168046]All the more reason for the FED to not rise interest rates. Cheap $$$ will keep shale going.[/QUOTE]
Who wants the shale to keep going? You cannot get there by boat.
[QUOTE=lm1883;168046]All the more reason for the FED to not rise interest rates. Cheap $$$ will keep shale going.[/QUOTE]
If you think not raising interest rates benefits anyone but the banks that get the money for near zero while loaning it to you at usurious interest rates and loaning it to junkbond rated shale companies is good you need to learn at least a little about economics. US corporations and their bankster buddies are borrowing money for free, buying back stock to artificially jack up the value of their stock so they can pocket a bonus for increasing “value”. It is a shell game. Shale players are second only to the frackers in the oil con game. Shale and fracking are not long term sustainable.
Low oil prices will correct themselves in time. The overall problem is lack of growth which reduces demand for oil. Lower oil prices puts more money in the hands of the consumer who spend, thereby increasing growth. Be patient.
one hell of a difference a week makes and a single report but unless production is cut, there will be no stability
[QUOTE=c.captain;168055]one hell of a difference a week makes and a single report but unless production is cut, there will be no stability[/QUOTE]
Ah, c.captain. You are old and wise. You should know with oil there is no stability, how many times have we seen this happen? Too many greedy bastards for any stability. The world is just along for the ride. Diamonds are one of the few commodities with stability because the market is controlled by a very few greedy bastards. Oil has too many wild cards from the shale and fracker guys to the Saudis.
If the Fed would raise the interest rate it would flush a lot of crap out of the system but that same crap runs the Fed. So not likely to happen.
Keep some cash in your mattress and be patient.
if all the debt is running with zero interest rate it never gets paid back
Interesting analysis here:
Saudis might realise it’ too late to buckle the US shale production.
[QUOTE=The Lash;166831]Well I hate to rain on c.captain’s doom and gloom “He Hate Me” premature schadenfreude parade, but everyone knew that oil had another leg downward this year, it’s just the way market psychology works. Over the long term this second leg downward will be the impetus that rebalances the producers. Once that process is completed I think the offshore industry as a whole will weather this storm and come out stronger, just perhaps not as strong as people were expecting a couple of years ago. A few things have to happen first.
- 60% depletion rate mathematics are inevitable but take time to take hold. Less drilling is occurring in the shale plays, therefore production will progressively diminish as time goes on.
- Interest rates are set to increase. Low cost long term financing for shale players will be a thing of the past. They will no longer be able to churn their paper, and many will go out of business, reducing overall shale drilling activity.
- Long term hedging of shale oil has about run its course. With prices headed downward, it will be a further impetus to break down the economics of many shale companies at the margins, resulting in more bankruptcies and less drilling.
- With many small players forced to throw in the towel rather than drill based on hope, there will be consolidation in the industry. Bigger players go slower and hedge their bets, leading to less overall drilling activity.
- Lower cost oil is ultimately stimulative to consumption, though the horizons for this are probably still out there a ways.
The global economy won’t cease, oil will recuperate, and things may begin to stabilize and even improve in 2016 for the offshore oil and gas industry. In the meanwhile there will be a continued focus on reducing costs that may take salaries lower, though that will be a slow process that could be interrupted by a recovery in oil demand. Plus, the new STCW requirements will serve as a bottleneck for those that have left the industry to rejoin it, making those who have remained more valuable over the long term.
I’m not unworried, but I’m not that worried.[/QUOTE]
As predicted…
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/07/oil-going-to-60-companies-to-start-spending-again-oil-ceos.html
Once drilling starts it will take a year or more for service companies to get back into the black. That’s a year or more before even time comes back. That’s two or more years before any type of pay increase will happen.
Back to even time with a pay raise, things are looking up.
[QUOTE=Fraqrat;185535]Once drilling starts it will take a year or more for service companies to get back into the black. That’s a year or more before even time comes back. That’s two or more years before any type of pay increase will happen.[/QUOTE]
Oil will take of in the spring of '17. Oil companies won’t wait until the last minute to get contracts else they will be paying boom prices. As more oil boats are locked in there will be a shortage of mariners. I see mariner pay going up, boat day rates and drill ship day rates will remain muted as their are way to many of them. 28/14 will be forced to compensate for the shortage of skilled mariners to populate OSV 'S. It will be interesting times for sure. As all those folks that were de-hired and went to tugs will come back home to da bayou. Joe boss is probably advertising for kitchen workers as we speak. Somebody got to make dem shit samiches.
From your mouth to God’s ear brother…
From your lips to Joe Boss’ ears.
Might be a few DPO’s that dont have enough seatime to renew…
[QUOTE=Ea$y Money;185594]Oil will take of in the spring of '17. Oil companies won’t wait until the last minute to get contracts else they will be paying boom prices. As more oil boats are locked in there will be a shortage of mariners. I see mariner pay going up, boat day rates and drill ship day rates will remain muted as their are way to many of them. 28/14 will be forced to compensate for the shortage of skilled mariners to populate OSV 'S. It will be interesting times for sure. As all those folks that were de-hired and went to tugs will come back home to da bayou. Joe boss is probably advertising for kitchen workers as we speak. Somebody got to make dem shit samiches.[/QUOTE]
I know one engineer that went back to tugs and will tell Mista Gar-ee to shove his money up a$$! 
Maybe the kills will start to sound less like Fourchon soon…I keep having flashbacks
When oil is in the doldrums LNG is all the rage. (Actually also in a bit of decline right now)
Could this create some jobs for US mariners if and when it becomes reality??: http://fairplay.ihs.com/commerce/article/4270061/kdb-provides-usd1-5-billion-financing-to-delfin-flng-project?utm_source=email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=dailynewswire&mgs1=bbcdncTkTw
If nothing else there will be need for some heavy duty AHTs and CSVs to position these FLNG vessels when they arrive.
Supply vessels to serve them and tugs to assist in berthing the export LNG carriers will be needed while in operation.
Being in a hurricane prone area they will probably be disconnectedable, thus able to steam away in case of an approaching hurricane, which will require a marine crew at all times.
Any comments??
PS> I assume that these will be placed outside US territorial water (12 n.miles) be foreign flagged and with mostly foreign crews, at least initially.
[QUOTE=ombugge;185798]When oil is in the doldrums LNG is all the rage. (Actually also in a bit of decline right now)
Could this create some jobs for US mariners if and when it becomes reality??: http://fairplay.ihs.com/commerce/article/4270061/kdb-provides-usd1-5-billion-financing-to-delfin-flng-project?utm_source=email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=dailynewswire&mgs1=bbcdncTkTw
If nothing else there will be need for some heavy duty AHTs and CSVs to position these FLNG vessels when they arrive.
Supply vessels to serve them and tugs to assist in berthing the export LNG carriers will be needed while in operation.
Being in a hurricane prone area they will probably be disconnectedable, thus able to steam away in case of an approaching hurricane, which will require a marine crew at all times.
Any comments??
PS> I assume that these will be placed outside US territorial water (12 n.miles) be foreign flagged and with mostly foreign crews, at least initially.[/QUOTE]
Like every LNG project being planned in North America, I bet this one doesn’t get off the ground, or if it does it will most likely be reduced in scope. A LNG project with four FLNGV’s seems really ambitious.
This project will also most likely have some diving work and pipelay work associated with it, as well as some lifting/platform installation (will have four pipelines attached to 4 mooring platforms tying into existing trunkline). They are repurposing the HIOS pipeline which has pissed off some operators in the GoM since they won’t be able to ship gas via the line once the project is operational.