Colorado State University’s Hurricane Outlook updated April 7th suggests an active 2010 hurricane season in the North Atlantic with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. For the State of Florida for 2010 the risk of at least 1 hurricane impact is forecast to be 68% and the risk for a major hurricane impact is about 31%.
The current moderate El Niño conditions are forecast to transition to neutral conditions by the start of the hurricane season. The weakening El Nino plus very warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures were cited as the primary reasons for the increase in activity.
The report stated that there were five hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics similar to the conditions observed in February and March 2010. The best analog years that we could find for the 2010 hurricane season were 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005 (famous for Katrina).