What would our Forum expert panel of meteorologists and weather connoisseurs comment on " batterfly effect " , tropical wave and tropical wave disturbance in relation to midlatitude cyclonic weather systems and compact tropical cyclonic systems. ?
I assume this is sarcasm but looking up terms in a glossary is not the same as a discussion about chaotic, non-linear weather systems.
I think most experienced mariners understand at least implicitly the role of chaos theory in weather forecasts. It has to do the degree of predictability.
Large-scale mid-latitude systems are going to be more predictable than tropical cyclones (TC).
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Why?
I think, the reason is:
The path and strength of the North Atlantic hurricanes depend on the mid-latitude large weather systems over the USA and the North Atlantic.
If the forecast of the mid-latitude systems is better now, it is still not perfect. Hence, all these now smaller probabilities enter as greater one into the forecast of hurricanes.
A good example for this was the hurricane Joaquin (the El Faro one). It started as mid latitude depression in the Bermudas region, when no forecast wrote about a future hurricane.
However, the large systems over the USA did not behave as forecasted.
Hence, the extra tropical Joaquin went southwards and became the deadly hurricane Joaquin in the Bahamas.
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I’d say mainly because TCs have a lot of energy concentrated in a small area. Beyond that I’d say read up on the subject yourself.
OK.
This is your thesis/opinion/thinking which I accept . Then I must assume ,having such, You either must have well funded/researched knowledge and understanding of both systems or you have read about it from reliable source.
So if You do not want to elaborate yourself then may be You can indicate a source so I can read it without wasting time for lenghty web search.
I tought for example that small compact well organised systems without front lines located in tropical climatic soup are easier to simulate then vast /huge midlatitude systems traversing through both land and ocean environments -hence influenced by more unpredictable variables. But I can be wrong of course.
Is chaos theory part of maritime academy curriculum in USA? If so then I am impressed. I had only 3 years of metheorology plus practical experience in using forecasts done by experts who should know such theory .
Having done negligible number of forecasts myself in the absence of professional advise.
Have relieved abt 50 masters of different nationalities including Anglo-Saxons and been relieved by same number. 100 is not much but none has elaborated on chaos theory while discussing next voyage weather.
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Yes, I don’t know for sure, You could be right. Of course if it was understood implicitly one would not expect a discussion. More likely an understanding that there is uncertainty and forecasts often change.
I suspect that the concept of the 'butterfly effect" is widely known.
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An example of a small unpredictable system is whatever struck the yacht Bayesian.
Examples of large systems which are more predicable are the trade winds. The El Nino phenomena can be predicted out months, Large mid-latitude systems are thought, in theory. to be predictable out to 14 days so they fall in-between
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