The face of irrational exhuberance in the GoM

[QUOTE=c.captain;161297]whatever the FUCK that is supposed to mean…[/QUOTE]

You think it’s GREAT and everybody else knows it’s USELESS, Scooter.

[QUOTE=AHTS Master;161310]You think it’s GREAT and everybody else knows it’s USELESS, Scooter.[/QUOTE]

Yeah sure…whatever you say.

[QUOTE=c.captain;161311]Yeah sure…whatever you say.[/QUOTE]

Thank you for agreeing with me, Scooter.

[QUOTE=AHTS Master;161312]Thank you for agreeing with me, Scooter.[/QUOTE]

I am happy you feel better…you know that preserving your feelings are very important to me

let me just say that the paid for/not paid for issue is not material with more new boats coming. Obviously boats already paid for are more profitable than new boats which still have to be amortized so if any company is increasing their fleet without work for all their boats, money is being left on the table. The big question to ask is how many more boats are on order by all the GoM companies combined and now many are laid up in total? That overcapacity is the cost to the GoM operators for believing that oil prices were going to stay over $100/bbl forever and there would not be the downturn in price today. I do not doubt that HOS can afford the over capacity as ECO and maybe even HGIM but anyone with a high debt to income ratio is going to hurt and those smaller companies with more boats coming might be in trouble. It is all up to debt load at a company versus their cash flow but no matter what, profits are going to be reduced and when profits are reduced, the companies are going to cut costs to preserve cash. The easiest place to cut costs is what these companies pay for their people and the benefits they provide. This is what we are now seeing so each of you GoM mariners is the loser for Joe’s unwarranted exuberance. Thanks Joe!

.

[QUOTE=Fraqrat;161224]It’s just older 240’s and 250’s and the old Seamar stretch boats. Everything is paid for and not costing a dime. They are all padlocked but bridled and saddled and ready to go. A crew could show up and have any one of them underway in an hour or so. Sorry Mr Doom and Gloom it sucks but the company isn’t going out of business just yet.[/QUOTE]

Actually, it is costing HOS to have these vessels cold stacked. I can assure you HOS was counting on these vessels higher profit margins (if they’re truly paid for) to cover the debt load for operations and the cost of new builds. Having zero cash flow from these vessels is a loss. They may not have to write a check every month to cover these vessels expenses but it indeed costs them.

Yeah but scooter was making it sound like brand new boats being stacked. Yeah you’re right it’s costing something I’m sure. I have faith the CFO and his people know what they are doing though. Scooter likes to shit on anything oilfield related just letting him know that warm is the blood that courses through our veins.

The other thing he’s not taking into account is, at least with the ECO new builds, they don’t get built until they have a long term contract that pays the boat off. Now granted, there were a couple crewboats that wasn’t the case with (which picked up jobs anyway). But generally, if you see new Orange, it’s paid for. I’d be very surprised if HOS, Seacor, and Tidewater don’t do the same too.

ECO built a number of vessels on spec during the upturn. HOS as a business model avoids long term contracts in order to target the high day rates of the spot market.

[QUOTE=c.captain;161315]let me just say that the paid for/not paid for issue is not material with more new boats coming. Obviously boats already paid for are more profitable than new boats which still have to be amortized so if any company is increasing their fleet without work for all their boats, money is being left on the table. The big question to ask is how many more boats are on order by all the GoM companies combined and now many are laid up in total? That overcapacity is the cost to the GoM operators for believing that oil prices were going to stay over $100/bbl forever and there would not be the downturn in price today. I do not doubt that HOS can afford the over capacity as ECO and maybe even HGIM but anyone with a high debt to income ratio is going to hurt and those smaller companies with more boats coming might be in trouble. It is all up to debt load at a company versus their cash flow but no matter what, profits are going to be reduced and when profits are reduced, the companies are going to cut costs to preserve cash. The easiest place to cut costs is what these companies pay for their people and the benefits they provide. This is what we are now seeing so each of you GoM mariners is the loser for Joe’s unwarranted exuberance. Thanks Joe!

.[/QUOTE]

You’re right, no other industry cuts expenses when things get slow. They just keep spending until they run out of money.

This slowdown effected lots of business owners and some of it was definitely self inflicted. But, there seemed to be a shortage of mariners that drove the employees day rates up to unheard of
Levels. It could not be sustained, it had no choice but to come back down. Honestly, I think HOS and HGIM were trying to keep up with ECO or at least not give up any more market share leading to their big newbuild programs. It may prove to be a costly mistake as it seems that HGIM was hit harder than HOS. There was an article a while back where Dino Chouest said that ECO had usually grown at a rate of 10% per year but I think 2013 or 2014 was close to 20%. That’s pretty good growth year in and out. HOS and HGIM’s growth was substantially higher than that and probably put them in a lessor position for the short term.

[QUOTE=Traitor Yankee;161325]ECO built a number of vessels on spec during the upturn. HOS as a business model avoids long term contracts in order to target the high day rates of the spot market.[/QUOTE]

HAH!..

Boyyyy gCaptain did a great job getting people worked up over this article! None of our new builds are stacked and most of them are on charter. Hate to break yalls heart!

Ha ha but the typical business plan USUALLY is that the old shit boats aren’t owed a dime and their revenue can easily be used to help pay for new tonnage.

In today’s oilfield the laws of business maybe a little different though with such high day rates where one new boat on a good charter can pay for itself, where in other trades maybe you need that new boat working plus 2 old ones to make it work.

Your quarterly report posted by HOS four days ago begs to differ:
"
The Company has now stacked a total of 18 new generation OSVs, up from 12 since last reported"
http://ir.hornbeckoffshore.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=132245&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2041924

The stacked boats might be called new generation, but they have a median age of at least 10-12 years.

Yup you need to try again. None of the brand new Hosmax vessels are stacked.

Looks like someone didn’t do well at reading comprehension…

The way I see it, building a boat is a big expensive proposition with a lot of advanced planning required. I imagine there would be a cost to them stopping the builds at some level too. And, given the time it may take to bring one into service, it may not be prudent so you aren’t left flatfooted and behind when things “do” come back.

[QUOTE=Fraqrat;161224]It’s just older 240’s and 250’s and the old Seamar stretch boats. Everything is paid for and not costing a dime. They are all padlocked but bridled and saddled and ready to go. [B]A crew could show up and have any one of them underway in an hour or so.[/B][/QUOTE]

That I refuse to believe in, a vessel that is not in daily use, and do not have a skeleton crew to keep it ship shape would need more than just an hour to get ready for work.

Who said there isn’t a crew taking care of all those boats? Who said they aren’t maintained to leave in short order? Why would you stick top shelf equipment in the weeds and forget about it? This isn’t Turdwater those vessels will be taken care of and not abandoned.