OE article: Oil price uncertainty looms over industry


We’re going to need (God forbid) a war or massive instability in the Middle East or a massive uptick in the world economy to get the oil fields back in action.

High oil prices are a double edge sword but right now it’s cutting nearly everyone in the maritime infustry’s throats.


If the shale oil producers would slow down a bit it would help. It doesn’t matter that OPEC and Russia voluntarily reduce production and the price get above $50/Bbl. if they jump in and increase their production until the price falls below their costs.

Maybe USA and other major exporters needs to join in to get the price up to a sustainable $70-90/Bbl., which would spur offshore exploration and production as well.
But, as pointed out by somebody else, as long as gas is cheap US voters are happy and nothing will happen.


Oil will stay at this level and even decline.

Yamal and Prelude coming on line.

Chine swithing to renewables.

Distributrd storage.

All of thwaw are game changers. All coming together is a black swan for oil.


The US is a net oil importer, not a net oil exporter. The US imports what? — 2.5 million barrels a day. Shale and US offshore oil need to grow at least to the point where the US can meet its own energy needs without any oil imports. The US needs energy security. The US needs to stop being held hostage to OPEC oil.

Natural Gas is the big game changer in US energy. It’s here now. The US is on the way to becoming the world’s largest LNG exporter within the next few years.


well, looks like there isn’t much uncertainty concerning crude oil’s price anymore

one thing fer certain is if true then offshore is in some deep shyte


Does anyone know how long the shale oil boom will last?


Shale is in its infancy in the US. There is a tremendous amount of shale oil and gas in North America. No one knows how much.

The US also has a tremendous amount of natural gas.

Undoubtedly, when the need for more supply arises, a lot of shale oil will be found in other parts of the world too.

Solar, wind, hydro, tidal, and geothermal will continue to benefit from innovation and gain energy market share and oil’s importance as an energy source will decline.

Coal went from supplying the majority of electricity in the US to small proportion fairly quickly. Although coal is the cheapest fuel before considering air emission control costs, natural gas is the cheaper overall.

I think offshore oil will have another two or three boom and bust cycles over the next 20 years, but it’s importance as a cost effective energy source is in permanent decline.


Are this a sign that things are looking up in the Drilling sector?: http://petro.no/cosl-drilling-europe-250-riggarbeidere/51301
COSL Europe is a branch of the large offshore service arm of the state owned Chinese oil company CNOOC, which is active all over the world, incl. in the GoM.

There will be even more jobs for drill crews when two new CAT J rigs become active in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea: http://petro.no/ma-vente-maned-ekstra-pa-cat-j-riggene/51290
With 4 full crews per rig (2/4 system) that should give jobs for a lot of idle drilling personnel and some mariners, since even jackups in Norway require marine crew.


Borr Drilling has Atwood Oceanic in their sight??: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-brief-atwood-oceanics-says-borr-drilling-ltd-reports-97-pct-stake-in-co-2017-8?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
They are aggressively building up their fleet of rigs in preparation for the upturn.
But when will it come??


The oracles at DNV-GL is predicting the future Energy transition and the roll of the oil, gas and shipping industries: https://eto.dnvgl.com/2017/#foreword


More predictions on the consolidation to come in the Drilling Industry: http://splash247.com/offshore-drilling-rig-empires-emerging-take-industry/


“Oil supply will flatten out in the period 2020 to 2028 and then fall significantly to be surpassed by gas in 2034”. Better get ready, folks :wink:


This years Oil Industry “bible” , World Energy Outlook, 2017:


Offshore oil service firms dominate North American energy bankruptcies http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-bankruptcy/offshore-oil-service-firms-dominate-north-american-energy-bankruptcies-idUSKBN1DG31E


Not everybody is seeing only doom and gloom ahead:


With OPEC and Russia cutting output to maintain price of crude oil high, US export of light sweet crude to Asia is booming and is expected to increase further, thus keeping the pressure on prices high.

With the price of Brent crude presently above USD 60/bbl. (WTI at USD <60) shale oil producers are ramping up production to ride the wave and milk it for all it is worth.

I presume that this is a dilemma for many here, since they would like to see the oil price go up to bring back jobs in the oil industry while, like most Americans, they are very happy with low price of gasoline at the pump.

One point that is not mentioned very much is that with light crude swamping the Asian market, the production of gasoline goes up, while HFO becomes more scarce, which MAY result in the price for bunker fuel to raise.


The innovative Drillship Island Navigator have now officially been terminated:

A burden lifted from the shoulders of both the Owner and the Shipyard according to Haavard Ulstein.


That looks kinda small to be a Drillship.


I’d be more than happy to find a happy home for the model in the ECO lobby, if it’s not being built and 3rd floor doesn’t want it anymore. :grin::grin:


How much?