OE article: Oil price uncertainty looms over industry


Hey Fraqrat!!! Hope all is well at HOS. Looking at the stock prices I have heard rumors from some of the guys, there is another round of pay cuts coming. Are YOU still going to tell me that selling the tug/barge division to Genesis for 230 million reasons was good idea? That would have been the “crutch” to hold up a crippling stock price of $3.84. Why in the hek did they sell those boats and barges??? I’m sure the stock would be hovering around at least $20 or better if they kept that equipment. Things that make you go mmmmmmmmm.


Your rumors are unfounded and probably heard from disgruntled ex employees. We had a new hire class of around 30 last month. I believe we will be having another group of just as many this month or next. No paycuts I’ve heard about on the horizon unless something catastrophic happens industry wide. Times are definitely challenging down here for all companies.

Maybe the towing division would be helping out he bottom line. Maybe it would be making just enough money to support itself and not much else.


From Splash 24/7 today: http://splash247.com/hornbeck-offshore-services-stack-majority-osvs/


Farstad Shipping is looking at teaming up with,or selling out to, Siem and Elliot, an American Hedge Found: http://www.smp.no/naeringsliv/2016/11/10/Farstad-Shipping-kjøper-seg-mer-tid-13770216.ece?cx_front_click=baseline_test&cx_front_click_place=2&cx_front_click_articles=3

The same two partners has design on more of the Norwegian Offshore Shipping companies: http://www.smp.no/ntb/innenriks/2016/06/01/Siem-vil-restrukturere-norsk-offshoreskipsbransje-12818082.ece

It is not clear what is behind this interest from a Wall Street player in these companies.
Anybody on the forum with any information, or inside knowledge of Elliot: http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=4483619


An optimistic view on the AHTS market future: http://www.marinelink.com/news/handling-anchor-supply418182
This article appears to mix AHTS with Subsea vessels, but the market for specialized subsea vessels have not suffered near as much as the general AHTS market.

The market for modern high powered (>15000 BHP) AHTS and large PSVs, which can also perform other duties, such as ROV support, simple subsea work, field support, wind farm tender etc. will likely improve, but the market for small and old AHTS and PSVs is a different case. Scrapping would be a solution, but there is a reluctance to go that route, since the scrap value of small vessels are very low.

The GoM market tend to be separated from the general world market due to the requirement for US flag, at least for simple OSVs. Most of the high end market is covered by foreign flag vessels and thus part of the world market.


According to the latest edition of the World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency’s flagship publication, there is a hope that the oil price will recover in the beginning of the 2020’s. But over the next decades, renewables and natural gas are the big winners in the race to meet energy demand growth until 2040: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/november/world-energy-outlook-2016.html


Consolidation in the Offshore Service Vessel market is inevitable. The alternative is bankruptcy, even for some of the big players: http://www.osjonline.com/news/view,stage-set-for-the-industrialists-to-begin-their-work_45331.htm
On the Norwegian scene, two personalities has already started their work, but where is the “salvors” in the US market? Seacore/Seabulk maybe?


Volatility still expected in 2017: http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/oil-and-gas-sector-to-still-face-volatile-oil-prices/


Are the North American Drilling Equipment Manufacturers getting ready for the upswing??: https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/dnv-gl-sets-up-committee-for-offshore-equipment-manufacturers/


Rig market outlook for 2017: http://splash247.com/offshore-rig-market-2017/


Some good news for the GoM production: http://splash247.com/energy-information-administration-forecasts-gulf-mexico-boon-us-crude-output/
But how will it affect the OSV market?


No effect these are projects coming online that were commenced and completed during the good times. We are still fucked…


What “could happen” when Trump gets in the oval office is anybody’s guess.
Here is one of them: http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/print/volume-77/issue-1/departments/beyond-the-horizon/how-trump-could-make-the-offshore-industry-great-again.html


As mentioned several times by several posters, the US frackers are killing the oil price: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-output-russia-idUSKBN16K1MB
Russia agreed to limit their export to back up the OPEC cut, but it doesn’t work if other major exporters and producers just go ahead and increase their output by an equal amount (or even increase total supply)


ANADARKO 4Q Earnings per share 37C, EST. 82C. Huge miss.


[QUOTE=ombugge;196231]As mentioned several times by several posters, the US frackers are killing the oil price: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-output-russia-idUSKBN16K1MB
Russia agreed to limit their export to back up the OPEC cut, but it doesn’t work if other major exporters and producers just go ahead and increase their output by an equal amount (or even increase total supply)[/QUOTE]

I rest my case: http://gcaptain.com/oil-drops-as-u-s-drilling-growth-threatens-to-counter-opec-cuts/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Gcaptain+(gCaptain.com)


Fellow Norwegian and Sunnmoring, Paal Kibsgaard, CEO of Schlumberger has held a major speech at the Scotia Howard Weil 2017 Energy Conference in New Orleans: http://www.slb.com/news/presentations/2017/2017_0327_pkibsgaard_scotia_howard_weil.aspx
He has some very valid point on the way ahead for the US and International Oil & Gas Industry, as well as the present situation.

At the same time Schlumberger has been buying up shares in the new Borr Drilling: http://petro.no/schlumberger-kjoper-riggaksjer/47019
An indication that the future for Offshore Drilling is looking brighter??

EDIT: Splash 24/7 article about Borr Drilling takeover in English: http://splash247.com/schlumberger-takes-sizeable-stake-borr-drilling/


The oil price may be rising and falling, but somebody appears to believe there are opportunities in the oil industry yet: http://sysla.no/offshore/gar-inn-med-opp-til-500-dollar-nystartede-edge-petroleum/

It appears that American hedge funds are actively seeking opportunities in foreign lands, both in the oil industry, offshore marine and renewable energy fields. They don’t do that out of their good heart, they must be seeing something that will bring profit down the line.


The worst may be over, or so say Statoil, after issuing the best results for several years: https://sysla.no/offshore/statoil-tredobler-resultatet/


This is the usual propaganda desperately uttered at the first hint of good news - just before the bad news comes in waves. I suspect short selling by the heralds.