NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

-no El Nino

-warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures

-reduced vertical wind shear,

-weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds,

-an enhanced west African monsoon

“Madden-Julian Oscillation. It basically describes a large pulse of thunderstorm activity that moves west to east around the equatorial belt.”

Here is the NOAA press release.

Mentions ACE

I found these graphs and stats about ACE:

Meaty presentation of the data in the context of global weather, and the last 40 years. To my eye it seems that this year has greater frequency of less energetic storms, but sort of a wash for total world-wide ACE.

Energy is energy, so why have tons of littler cells rather than few large ones? Does a big, well-ordered cell deplete the energy available and make littler ones less likely? Do lots of littler ones starve the system of the energy needed to organise a monster? If energy available to ACE were to increase, wouldn’t we hope for many smaller events instead of few large ones?

What happens if the energy available to ACE were to go unused? Does it get banked? How? Stored heat in seawater? Is banking the mechanism behind the periodicity observed between seasons?

I don’t know how much heat gets transferred in TCs compared to the general circulation. Wikipedia says:

The power of the Hadley system, considered as a heat engine, is estimated at 200 terawatts.[3]


The Ferrel system acts as a heat pump with a coefficient of performance of 12.1, consuming kinetic energy from the Hadley and polar systems at an approximate rate of 275 terawatts