[QUOTE=Kennebec Captain;92467]
I wonder if the Aiviq is running into the swell to recover some broken tow gear?
K.C.[/QUOTE]
That sounds like a logical assumption to me. It would be good to put some strain on the wire while they wind it in.
CG Cutter Haley is sitting 3 miles offshore right now. That is not a good sign.
[QUOTE=Knots;92464]
If it is going ashore Ocean Bay is probably the best place for it to happen considering the rocks everywhere else.[/QUOTE]
Not been in close anywhere on the south side of Kodiak but you’re right that if the KULLUK is gotta ground then Ocean Bay is the place to do it.
If the Alert is still towing, they are headed straight for Ocean Bay.
Looking at the track now, it looks like they ran into trouble about five or six hours ago when they made that sudden dog leg to the west.
Its almost low water at Kodiak, so the tidal current setting to the SW has probably been overtaken by the wind induced current cause by all this easterly wind. I don’t imagine the normal flood current to the NE will have very much effect in this weather.
Looks like Nanuq is running to intercept Alert.
Aiviq is leaving SW at 8+ kts? Trouble on board?
Looks like that’s the case. Get the torch ready. Almost appears as it’s headed to ocean bay rather than the full on rocks. Despite all the effort it’s not looking good.
Alert is now making 2.9 knots on course 297.
ALASKA DAILY NEWS UPDATE
Update, 4:40 p.m.
Royal Dutch Shell and a team that includes the Coast Guard have decided the Kulluk drilling rig and the ships holding it in place with tow lines should wait out another winter storm coming Monday night in the Gulf of Alaska, said Coast Guard Petty Officer David Mosley. The vessels will seek safe harbor, likely in Port Hobron on Kodiak Island, when the weather clears, the Coast Guard says. Meanwhile, technicians were being flown to the Kulluk to inspect the towlines already attached.
The Kulluk and accompanying ships are trying to maintain position offshore about 10 to 20 miles south of Kodiak Island, according to Shell. The weather cleared temporarily Monday morning when 4-foot seas and 32-mph winds were reported, a break that allowed crews to secure towlines between the Kulluk, the Alert – a Crowley Marine tug normally under contract to Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. to use for spill prevention in Prince Willian Sound – and a Shell-contracted vessel, the Aiviq.
A new storm is expected to move in Monday night, with winds topping 60 mph and 28-foot seas, according to forecasts.
Read more here: http://www.adn.com/2012/12/30/2738222/shell-drill-rig-adrift-again-in.html#storylink=cpy
at 2011PST the ALERT is 5.4 miles from the north promontory between Ocean Bay and Partition Cove and making straight for it at about 2kts.
I am desperately trying to think if there is a single goddamned thing to be done now if the tug just doesn’t have enough hp to steer the KULLUK? Is he behind it or in front of it?
I think ALERT is pulling as hard as they dare to the NE.
[QUOTE=tugsailor;92486]I think ALERT is pulling as hard as they dare to the NE.[/QUOTE]
???
Seems like they should be trying to ease around Black point, maybe too late now. About 4 hrs off the beach.
Those wind barbs may be wrong. It might be more S’ly then the E shown. Buoy 46001 (175 mi SE) is showing SSE at 27 kts.
K.C.
If you click on the “more” you can enter a “predicted course” I put in 240 minutes and the vector ends on the beach.
What could possibly go wrong ~
Good Night ~
[QUOTE=tugsailor;92486]I think ALERT is pulling as hard as they dare to the NE.[/QUOTE]
but what on earth can be gained by pulling that way against wind and seas? Why not pull towards the SW if he is able to stay in front of the rig? If he is behind it and can’t get in front of it and the rig is towing the ALERT then this game is over already I am afraid!
What could possibly gone wrong ~
[QUOTE=Sweat-n-Grease;92493]What could possibly gone wrong ~[/QUOTE]
Does everyone realize how much this is like watching a bloody battle from a camera on a drone far up in the sky? All we need are the infrared images of men on the back decks of these tugs to make it totally Hollywood!
[QUOTE=c.captain;92490]but what on earth can be gained by pulling that way against wind and seas? Why not pull towards the SW if he is able to stay in front of the rig? If he is behind it and can’t get in front of it then this game is over already I am afraid![/QUOTE]
My guess is that the wind and/or swell is SE and Alert is pulling SE like tugsailor said earlier. Maybe they don’ t trust the tow gear to put any more into it. Might be hoping for a break and pull around Black Point?
K.C.
The rate of drift toward the beach has slowed a little. It looks like either conditions are improving or they are applying more power. I think he is trying hard to hold KULLUK until the wind comes more southerly so that they have a chance to pull easterly and try to work NE to get around Cape Barnaby.
As a fall back, he may be trying to get KULLUK far enough north so that it will make land fall on the beach instead of further south on that bold shore.
The closer they get to shore the more likely that they will pick some flood current to the NE. Also, if the wind is coming Southerly, with those mountains on shore the wind may be much stronger and may tend to follow the shore.
But given the huge easterly sea that must by running, they are going to have a hell of a time making the necessary easting to round either Cape Barnabas or Black Point…
Its probably far too late to try to run SW for Black Point now.
There sure are a lot more members to the Unified Command now than when this incident began. I must suck to watch a movie with you people, lets just let this whole thing play out and see what these professional mariners do. It looks like they are doing pretty good with the conditions and adversities they have and are facing.
There appears to be MANY more members from this thread added to the Unified Command Structure now than when this incident began. It must really suck to watch a movie with all of you always putting your two cents in. Lets let the professional Mariners who are on scene call the shots and do what they are being paid to do. They have done a phenomenal job to this point considering the weather conditions and all the adversities they have over come. Just let it play out and don’t get so emotional.