400 PM AKST MON DEC 31 2012
Tonight: SE wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain.
Tue: SE wind 50 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 33 ft subsiding to 26 ft. Rain.
Tue Night: S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 26 ft subsiding to 18 ft.
Wed: SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Wed Night: SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
Thu: S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
Fri: S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Sat: S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Well something has changed within the past hour. AIVIQ is headed east right now at 2.4kts and ALERT is headed west at 1.5kts with a mile between them. Wind is from the east getting up to 35kts so I suspect AIVIQ is either disconnected or holding with no strain on it’s wire?
If ALERT is grappled to the bridle, then it would have the better hold on the KULLUK and running downwind should ease the strain in the gear so perhaps the plan is to now let them just stay in front of the rig and steer it towards the SW using AIVIQ if only necessary?
This is very odd to be trying to figure out what is happening based on what we’re seeing on Marinetraffic.com.
55 kts of wind and 33 ft seas.
That means their will be a 40+ ft from time to time.
I don’t tow but it seems to me the risk would be less to duck out of that sea somewhere.
K.C.
I was thinking the same thing, something doesn’t seem right.
released a short time ago by the USCG
[B]Coast Guard crews continue battling fierce storm to assist Kulluk near Kodiak, Alaska[/B]
JUNEAU, Alaska — Coast Guard crews continue to battle the elements to provide assistance to the crews of the Kulluk and its four support vessels, Aiviq, Nanuq, Guardsman and Alert, Monday. Coast Guard crews in conjunction with Royal Dutch Shell are working together to ensure the safety of life at sea and prevent the Kulluk from running aground despite the weather.
The crew of the Coast Guard Cutter Alex Haley returned to the Kulluk’s location Sunday evening, after repairing their fouled port propeller in Kodiak, and relieved the crew of the Coast Guard Cutter SPAR as on scene commander. The crews of the response vessels Alert and Aiviq re-established the tow of the Kulluk Monday morning and plan on towing the Kulluk to Port Hobron on the southeast side of Kodiak Island to seek shelter from the harsh storm that has been impacting the tow for the past several days.
A Unified Command consisting of the Coast Guard, Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, and other federal, state, local and tribal partners was established on Friday and is working with Royal Dutch Shell and Edison Chouest Offshore to respond to this incident.
The Unified Command is in direct contact with the crews of the response vessels and is receiving routine reports about conditions on scene. This information, along with updated weather reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is being used to develop future course of action and plan for various contingencies that may occur.
“The communication between the different stakeholders involved in this response has been exceptional,” said Rear Adm. Thomas Ostebo, commander, Coast Guard 17th District. “The ability to quickly adapt and safely coordinate efforts to maintain control of the Kulluk despite the harsh weather remain the key factors in a successful outcome.”
Coast Guard MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter crews from Air Station Kodiak are preparing to deploy several technicians aboard the Kulluk. The technicians will inspect the current condition of the towlines on the drilling unit.
“We have a brief weather window which provides the opportunity to get experts aboard the Kulluk to inspect the drilling unit and its tow set up,” said Ostebo. “They will provide key onsite information about towing issues or concerns and allow the Unified Command to develop contingency plans accordingly.”
Weather on scene is reported at 32-mph winds and 4-foot seas but is forecast to increase to 63-mph winds and 28-foot seas by Monday evening.
[QUOTE=Kennebec Captain;92451]55 kts of wind and 33 ft seas.
That means their will be a 40+ ft from time to time.
I don’t tow but it seems to me the risk would be less to duck out of that sea somewhere.
K.C.[/QUOTE]
They are TOTALLY on the WRONG side of Kodiak Island for doing that. Where they are is a completely desolate lee shore.
As a Kodiak resident, I appreciate all the industry knowledge that is being provided by the posters on this thread. Please continue to provide input as the situation changes.
Paul VanDyke
Kodiak, Alaska
[QUOTE=c.captain;92454]They are TOTALLY on the WRONG side of Kodiak Island for doing that. Where they are is a completely desolate lee shore.[/QUOTE]
Port Hobron is just around the corner from Old Harbor. Never been there but it looks like it is protected from S and SE wx.
K.C.
As a Kodiak resident, I appreciate all the industry input that I see on this thread. Keep it up!
Our prayers of safety are with all involved,
Paul VanDyke
Kodiak, Alaska
I’d guess their only (unconventional) option is to keep just enough strain on it to steer it west or east, not for me to debate where or how as I don’t know the area and haven’t towed anything shaped like that. Ya know like the wind is the main force moving it but your towline force is enough to coax it more NE or NW.
Goddamn china buckles. Was thinking about that if it was a shackle that let go there ‘should’ be intact chain bridle and surge pendant. Eventually you’d be worried the Orville hook/chain hawk/connections would chafe at some point in that kind of Wx.
[QUOTE=Kennebec Captain;92456]Port Hobron is just around the corner from Old Harbor. Never been there but it looks like it is protected from S and SE wx.
K.C.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, but they can’t get in there until it lays down outside. Lots of refuges but no windward shore to run behind. Gotta stay well offshore until you have the window open long enough to go through it.
Really confused as to why they didn’t tuck in west behind the island. They would have been there by now. They are really too close to shore for 55 knots and 33 foot seas.
If it is going ashore Ocean Bay is probably the best place for it to happen considering the rocks everywhere else. Any local knowledge of that coastline out there?
http://www.charts.noaa.gov/OnLineViewer/16592.shtml
[ATTACH]2750[/ATTACH]
ALERT is in position 57-02 N / 152-53 W and headed 303 at 1.4knots That’s about 7 miles off the lee shore of Sitkalidak Island.
AIVIQ is in position 57-00 N / 152-47 W and headed 136 at 2.6 knots
So I would say if anyone has a line on KULLUK, its ALERT.
I don’t see how they can round Cape Barnabas (which is about 8 miles to the NxE from the present position while there is so much wind out of the east) in order to get behind Sitkalidak Island and to Port Hebron (a fishing camp).
I think their better bet now is to run SW and try to round Black Point on the west end of Sitkalidak Island and work their way up into Old Harbor.
Given the current 1.1 knot speed to the west — in the midst of an easterly gale — I think ALERT is probably losing ground and just trying to slow KULLUK’s drift toward the lee shore.
[QUOTE=c.captain;92460]Yeah, but they can’t get in there until it lays down outside. Lots of refuges but no windward shore to run behind. Gotta stay well offshore until you have the window open long enough to go through it.[/QUOTE]
Yes, hard to say from here in my living room, I’d need a chart of the area some local knowledge and about 20 times more towing experience then I’ve got. I don’t know that area,
I wonder if the Aiviq is running into the swell to recover some broken tow gear?
K.C.
[QUOTE=tugsailor;92466]Given the current 1.1 knot speed to the west — in the midst of an easterly gale — I think ALERT is probably losing ground and just trying to slow KULLUK’s drift toward the lee shore.[/QUOTE]
Didn’t think of that I hope you’re wrong.
K.C
[QUOTE=Kennebec Captain;92467] I’d need a chart of the area
K.C.[/QUOTE]
http://www.charts.noaa.gov/OnLineViewer/16592.shtml
[QUOTE=tugsailor;92466]Given the current 1.1 knot speed to the west — in the midst of an easterly gale — I think ALERT is probably losing ground and just trying to slow KULLUK’s drift toward the lee shore.[/QUOTE]
I fear you are right on that one. I don’t like the picture that is forming this evening. So much for going out to party with those hookers tonight…I wonder if they’ll refund my deposit?
[QUOTE=tugsailor;92465]A
I think their better bet now is to run SW and try to round Black Point on the west end of Sitkalidak Island and work their way up into Old Harbor.[/QUOTE]
I agree, just don’t know why they didn’t do that earlier. Maybe the CG wouldn’t allow it? It was like they were bound for Kodiak the minute they picked back up the tow.
