I guess that’s the key right there. People who plan to retire within 5-10 years are a pretty substantial voting block in every union that I know of. Not to mention that those senior people are more likely to be in leadership positions. I do disagree on the idea that there’s no way for everyone to win though.
It seems to me like the main thing that we all want is an end to labor organizations undercutting each other to get work. That competition only helps the employers. We don’t necessarily need to jump into a full-blown merger to do that. All we need is a truce.
Start with a public commitment by each union that they won’t take work with any company (or division thereof) that is currently represented by another union. I’m not sure on the legal ramifications, but if it’s allowed, get a written agreement with penalties in place for violating those commitments. If all that works out, move towards establishing joint negotiating teams or minimum industry contract standards. Let any merger happen over time in as natural of a way as possible, and we should retain most of the upside with substantially less disruption to people’s existing livelihoods.
I think existing seniority has to initially be protected because otherwise there’s no way in hell that the unions with the better contracts will vote for a merger.