Honest opinion, how bad do you think this is going to get?

I made this topic, you and the other guys talking politics are the ones taking it off base. If you want to talk politics, make a politics topic.

But, you’re also talking politics on your self-proclaimed thread about the COVfefe virus.

Can we all agree the virus sucks?



Also, I made one post pointing out the polls are unreliable before I asked if we can just talk industry and not politics. If you guys want to talk politics fine, but could you at least do it on a dedicated politics thread?

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12 posts were merged into an existing topic: American politics

Back to the original post. I personally think things will get much worse from a financial perspective for quite some time. We are at the beginning. CEOs of major corporations are cutting back because they are losing money now and cannot plan for the future. Small businesses which employ about 45% of the people will for the most part not survive. Governments are throwing money at this, some better directed than others. The suspension of the “pass thru” limitation that benefits mostly those with incomes over one million dollars is an example of one misallocation and I am sure there will be billions of dollars wasted to follow as at present there is precious little real oversight.
All businesses are now interdependent worldwide and all businesses depend on 1. Average people having money to spend. 2. These same people have enough confidence in the future to spend the money. [Rich people do not an economy make.]
So this is going to be a long hard slog how long largely depends on the actions of governments financially in supporting the citizens, small businesses and the healthcare system. As things begin to get better it would be an ideal time for a country to build a better resilience thru increased research and development at home, improving infrastructure and the like. Personally I did not believe this corona thing would be this bad at first but got cautious relatively early and converted quite a bit of equity to cash. The equity remaining looks like it’s drunk and on the edge of a cliff. I don’t look to invest any of that cash for some time to come. Things may look bad now but they’ll look worse by July. Of course, those in the transportation industry won’t start seeing any light until the world starts to recover. Oil companies and especially those that contract with them are screwed, a lot will simply disappear.That is my best educated WAG.

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Honestly as long as things can open back up in 30-45 days I dont think it’s going to be as bad as expected, at least from what I see. I was filling in for a small company when wood prices where down and got cut over the slowdown but oh well :joy: right now believe it or not the orders for wood on a global level are coming back, 2wks ago I wouldn’t have believed it, I’m back filling containers again with ash / oak. The price of pulpwood is up there, 1k bucks a load I will do that every day. Oil prices are what they are, as a small business owner I’ve NEVER made the margin on gas / diesel like I have, again less people we have to lay off. Just looking at the big picture. If someone told me 6 months ago i would be selling N95 masks i would have shaken my head… fuck it.
Like him or not he is our president, alot of us had to deal with the last idiot for 8yrs, stand by for 4 more yrs… :+1::joy:


Good thing you’re not under the scope of the Monday morning quarterbacks… Otherwise you’d be getting killed for your lack of crystal ball perfection.

Kudos to you for admitting your miscalculations of the severity of this crisis. You are not the only one. I noticed that many people quickly forget what they thought in the past & only think in the present. It’s very hard to speculate about the future if you can only remember the present IMO.

I guess we are opposite of each other on predicting the future. On Feb 24 on the “Coronavirus at Sea” thread you told me you thought this was only a hiccup while I was double lining my tin foil hat & stocking up on ninja swords & beef jerky. Now I think things are going to get better really fast while you think we are in it for the long haul. It’s a crazy world. One thing that I always monitor is the world PMI index which is the projection of purchasing managers throughout the world. Historically it has been a reliable resource for guessing the future. But it matched your incorrect projection back in February & matches your current gloomy projection being well below 50. Only time will tell. But I think people are going to want to spend money & live life to the fullest once they see the light at the end of the tunnel. The black plague gave us the Renaissance & the Spanish Flu gave us the Roaring 20’s. I expect history to repeat itself with this global shut down. I think it’s going to be a hell of a ride. People will be braver once this is over IMO.

Comments 43, 45 & 48.

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Daaaaaammnnnnn…a pick 6 for a Monday morning quarterback… But in fairness, at least he was willing to make a call. Most of the haters don’t say shit… Don’t have shit to say about what SHOULD be done… Only wait to see what happens so they can complain afterwards… But don’t go speaking the truth, it might be triggering to the echo chamber crowd… Standing by for the reply-ly-lyl-y

In my not so informed opinion, @tengineer1 is one of the dudes on this forum who knows what he is talking about when it comes to finances. When he is venting with the anti-Trump choir I skip it but I’m always interested when he posts about investing & the status of the maritime industry. I like to hear it from all angles & from as many sources as possible. I think we are in for an economic come back but I’ve been wrong about a great many things in the past. We just have to wait & see & hedge our bets the best we can.

I sincerely hope you are right and I am wrong. There’s an interesting theory about EM bouncing back first from JP Morgan’s Kolanovic due to the people in those countries getting the BCG vaccine routinely. People in the US don’t get BCG or at least most didn’t as it wasn’t considered needed. Kolanovic is right sometimes but is always an interesting read.

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I am buying, everything is still on sale. Although a bit higher than last week or two, you still have to pay your light bill.

Agree… And if he were willing to admit he was wrong in the initial diagnosis of the severity of this pandemic (as were most people), I’d be impressed and would consider removing him from the ilk of the TDS gSquad… Let’s just see

What the heck? You still have cash? You are definitely more patient than me. But as soon as a dividend comes in I have it reinvested by the end of the day. Of my 3 big accounts (2 rollover IRA’s & one 401k) 2 are already above their historical highs. I think the bottom was mid March.

Yes, still have a small bit of swag to work with, always kept a 10% cash position or more. I don’t buy the crazy shit anymore, just what they call “The old guy shit”. Works for me. My younger brother is into some other stuff and has done well, but being older am trying to protect my holdings and get a quarterly paycheck. AMD has been good to him. SFL has been good to me. And yes, everyone has taken a nasty hit the last month or two, but you don’t lose until you sell. I have stuck with utilities and phone/internet type stocks for the last few years. Pick your poison.

I pander to no one.

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??? lost me there

Was replying to H’pipe as he wrote below. Usually don’t bother to respond to sensitive souls but accusing me of desperately pandering to some group caused a moment of weakness. I forgive him. He probably just ran out of avocado toast.

“You’re right, democrats (small d) should tie voting rights to IQ test results. Let’s see how that would mesh with the same groups you so desperately pander to.”