El Faro - NTSB Issues WX Information Recommendations

Past time. This is from the 2017 Bowditch:

Because of advances in tropical cyclone prediction, the 1-2-3 rule (see Figure 3912a) has become outdated and the Danger Graphic based on that rule depicts excessively large potential tropical cyclone danger areas. In 2012, the National Hurricane Center developed an alternative experimental version of the graphic based on the wind speed probability calculations discussed above. One advantage of this approach is that it allows the depiction of any particular desired level of risk. In addition, the calculation considers the spread of the model guidance and therefore has some situational variability. It also considers uncertainty in the forecasts of tropical cyclone size and intensity as well as the track of the cyclone.

NHC discontinued use of the Mariner’s 1-2-3 rule in 2016. Tropical cyclone danger areas are now depicted to show the areas encompassed by the 5% and 50% 34-knots wind speed probability contours - the 5% contour is meant to highlight areas where-tropical-storm force winds are possible and the 50% contour is meant to highlight areas where those winds are likely. An example of the new Danger Graphic is given in Figure 3912b.

This was discussed on this thread from Sep 2016 Hurricane Avoidance - Joaquin and El Faro

From that thread:

There has been several places where the El Faro and the 1-2-3 avoidance rule has been discussed. Most mariners agree that the El Faro did not have an adequate margin, however the fact that the El Faro’s planned route was inside the so-called “Area to be Avoided” that fact alone does not necessarly mean that it was in violation of normal practice. - KC