El Faro - An Overview

The first time I looked up the term “information” on Wikipedia it said something along the lines was that it was what was required to change the “state” … seems like they were saying to flip something from “1” to “0” If a message doesn’t change the state, then it’s not information. (?)

In a computer it take 1.2 volts to flip from 0 to 1. For human it is much more, it might take 440 volts and 30 amps (that’ll learn ya)and depends on many things. For one who the message is coming from etc.

So the captain of El Faro has a mental model of what’s happening. To change his mental model he needs information. But he is going to reject a message that doesn’t conform to his prior beliefs.

The captain actively wants to reject a message that doesn’t conform to his belief.

Overall it’s a mistake to focus too much on one particular event, the whole picture is important but…

Having said that, take the 2/m message to the captain at 0120, why does he reject that message? I have to guess but:

#1 reason - doesn’t fit what I "know’ for sure.

  • 2/m has never been to Alaska, doesn’t know real bad weather
  • 2/m doesn’t know what the ship can take
    -2/m easily rattled by a something she heard on the XM radio

At this point, that captain needs more than a message, he needs information.

For example, from the 2/m to the capt: _According to your night orders (there actually were none) you expect max 50 kt winds on the stbd beam, but I am right now getting 70 kts wind on the port beam and it not backing as you expect, it’s veering and getting worse, barometer is dropping like a stone. According to my plot, carried out as per your instructions, we are heading for the eye wall, dangerous side. _

And I’m not guessing about wind. It’s a 10 minute average reading from a digital marine grade anemometer and a split second before I took the reading it had been calibrated by top members of the state AND federal Department of Weights and Measures… to be dead on balls accurate! *

*My Cousin Vinny.

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