Press conference here: http://dvidshub.net/?script=video/video_live_webcasts.php&which=1231
Chief, have you ever gotten that sack of quickrete & didn’t happen to pour it before the rain came & hardened it up? Need I say more? the sea bed is soft mud. It doesn’t make rocks the size of small boulders & that didn’t blow out of the riser or you’d see just one huge gaping hole. So through process of elimination & realizing how long it took some of those rocks to fall, I’d say it was one hell of a pressure release.[QUOTE=alvis;34092]Could this be mud? The description and a comment in the youtube video indicate that it is mud.[/QUOTE]
Doug Suttle’s extended BP Team joined the bridge did you?
[QUOTE=rlanasa;34087]I sent you the dial in numbers so you could register and ask your well thought out questions.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=company man 1;34090]I would love for rlanasa to be right on the head. The problem is he/she is full of BS & the people on here who have any knowledge or field experience know it. You notice that Rlanasa hws never revealed what they do inside or outside of the industry. I’m going to guess… Subway sandwich artist.[/QUOTE]
I don’t know squat about this field but I know about respect, honor and professionalism. The eleven soul lost to this tragedy deserve our respect, our honor and our professionalism as answers and remedies are sought. Anyone seeking a bit of glory for themselves or taking an ego trip by being a fake expert (or an expert leaker of bad information) needs to be mindful of the human loss and grieving families, friends and co-workers. Think about that before you act solely to boost your own sense of self worth.
Not pointing fingers - just stating my prospective.
That’s what I’m doing. Just sitting here seeking glory for myself. If you think I take any joy on reporting the facts as I see them when the role of BP has a direct effect on my job & the jobs of meny of my friends & their homes & property, then you have been reading too many of rlanasa’s talking points. I am wathcing Doug Settles on TV right now trying to tell me to throw all my years of pumping, testing, well control, & supervisory experience in the trash can & believe every lying ass work that comes out o f his mouth. I quite wish he & his group of mery men who have been evasive at best & lied there kesters off about gros neglegence at worst would have such repsect for the whole 126 psople who were on board the DWH on 4/20/10 bnecause we wouldn’t be having this discussion right now. [QUOTE=RDD;34096]I don’t know squat about this field but I know about respect, honor and professionalism. The eleven soul lost to this tragedy deserve our respect, our honor and our professionalism as answers and remedies are sought. Anyone seeking a bit of glory for themselves or taking an ego trip by being a fake expert (or an expert leaker of bad information) needs to be mindful of the human loss and grieving families, friends and co-workers. Think about that before you act solely to boost your own sense of self worth.
Not pointing fingers - just stating my prospective.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=TroubledByThis;34085]I have a BS in Marketing, a Business Degree 1980. I got a good education in many ways. BP Execs have constantly said, [I]“Everything is going according to plan.”[/I]
I’m sure that they are NOT lying, based upon my courses in proper business management. We were trained much like soldiers or boat captains … when you make a plan, part of that plan entails “[U]CONTINGENCY PLANS[/U]” for each step in case of failure. So when one properly follows a good plan and then encounters failure or subperformance, [B]a “contingency plan” is adopted once a “Decision Making Tree” is switched to a new method/tactic/strategy or course of action.[/B] So a business man or sailor or soldier could theoretically encounter failure after failure and still stay on the plan … although each successive failure has carried the leader into vastly different action phases like branching from the original course. The rig’s initial failure was clearly lacking in “Contingency Plans” … Now they’ve gone back to business management school to tell you the “truth” as we are being intentionally mislead. [B]They wiil indeed be on the “plan” right up until they announce failure. The plan is to break it to us slowly. [/B]
[I]“A poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, until he is heard no more. Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”[/I] ~ Shakespeare’s Macbeth
(This is my opinion and commentary on the mumbo-jumbo we are hearing)[/QUOTE]
wow…for an real life example of this…watch the news conference…
Didn’t mean to direct this to you Capn. I’ve learned a bit reading your posts.
[QUOTE=company man 1;34097]That’s what I’m doing. Just sitting here seeking glory for myself. If you think I take any joy on reporting the facts as I see them when the role of BP has a direct effect on my job & the jobs of meny of my friends & their homes & property, then you have been reading too many of rlanasa’s talking points. I am wathcing Doug Settles on TV right now trying to tell me to throw all my years of pumping, testing, well control, & supervisory experience in the trash can & believe every lying ass work that comes out o f his mouth. I quite wish he & his group of mery men who have been evasive at best & lied there kesters off about gros neglegence at worst would have such repsect for the whole 126 psople who were on board the DWH on 4/20/10 bnecause we wouldn’t be having this discussion right now.[/QUOTE]
I found a gent with a blog that has many screen shots and video captures of this mornings “eruption” at around 8:10 AM Central time.
There are some alternate descriptions there. When I had the pleasure of talking with CompanyMan1, and he asked what I saw, I said: “It was like Hercules threw a giant handful of #57 limestone through the water.” Some of the pix in the above link, fit that description pretty well.
I hope we can all keep working with each other to figure things out. It seems none (except perhaps one or two) are not on the inside. We respect those that are inside, but can’t talk openly. We understand and appreciate what you can share. To those on the inside spreading disinformation here, frankly, may you rot in hades… and stay clear of ad hominem attacks.
In the press briefing recommended by rlanasa the “beloved” BP spokesman won’t say a darn factual thing, even whether they are pumping right now… this is not the transparency that will get BP any benefit of the doubt. I just wish I could be a juror when the claims come against BP… lack of transparency is something I would punish harshly.
Wow audio went to heck in a handbasket in the press briefing, but I caught that Development Driller II suspended operations. I couldn’t make out why. Anyone catch it?
[QUOTE=bigmoose;34100]I found a gent with a blog that has many screen shots and video captures of this mornings “eruption” at around 8:10 AM Central time.
There are some alternate descriptions there. When I had the pleasure of talking with CompanyMan1, and he asked what I saw, I said: “It was like Hercules threw a giant handful of #57 limestone through the water.” Some of the pix in the above link, fit that description pretty well.
I hope we can all keep working with each other to figure things out. It seems none (except perhaps one or two) are not on the inside. We respect those that are inside, but can’t talk openly. We understand and appreciate what you can share. To those on the inside spreading disinformation here, frankly, may you rot in hades… and stay clear of ad hominem attacks.
In the press briefing recommended by rlanasa the “beloved” BP spokesman won’t say a darn factual thing, even whether they are pumping right now… this is not the transparency that will get BP any benefit of the doubt. I just wish I could be a juror when the claims come against BP… lack of transparency is something I would punish harshly.
Wow audio went to heck in a handbasket in the press briefing, but I caught that Development Driller II suspended operations. I couldn’t make out why. Anyone catch it?[/QUOTE]
Yes, the DDII suspended drilling before the top kill effort to prepare to replace the current BOP with a new BOP should that be required if top kill fails (my opinion is it has), and subsequently the LMRP cap fails. They are prepping the LMRP cap right now (and that is now according to bp).
Watching this press release.
There is no point in asking this bp representative any substantive question, he won’t answer them. When asked what pressure they are pumping, his answer is “we don’t want to distract the operators by asking this”. In other words, none of your freaking business. When asked what volume of mud they have pumped, his answer is “we have pumped a large volume, but don’t worry, we have as much as we need and can replenish at any time”. In other words, don’t worry your pretty little head about that i.e. none of your freaking business.
CM1, you would have wasted your time calling…
The bottom line is Doug Settles is saying pay no attention to the plume right? then why has the freaking camera been focused on the damn plume for like 4 days now? There was a LOT of cement that came from somewehe this morning. Is it possible that it came from a boat dropping huge chunks in the water? I doubt it ? Then where did it come from? There has been another huge plume erupting with outrageous force since then & the color we’re not supposed to pay attention to since then has changed back to mostly oil. Due to the total lack of honesty by these people I have had to stay on this sight & report to many people who have emailed me privately letting me know I have been very helpful to their understandin of what’s actually going on as best as I can relay it. I might imagine their are attrorneys for family memebers & possibly family memebers of the very same people you say we are disrespecting who would like getting to the bottom of this totally avoidable disaster. I will say again for the record, either this will break BP finanfcially or they will just walk away at some point realizing that FINANCIALLY it isn’t worth it for them to keep this marage up. Then you will hear whailing & teeth nashing like never before in the history of this country.[QUOTE=RDD;34099]Didn’t mean to direct this to you Capn. I’ve learned a bit reading your posts.[/QUOTE]
Furthermore, with the announcement of the pulling of one of the rigs I predict that moment sooner than later.
[QUOTE=company man 1;34086]Another out of control plume now.[/QUOTE]
Answer to your earlier question the Q4000 is smoking pretty heavy. Maybe they’re pumping again.
Thanks. is the Dolphin pumping ? You can really see the difference in their stacks if they are.[QUOTE=AHTS Master;34108]Answer to your earlier question the Q4000 is smoking pretty heavy. Maybe they’re pumping again.[/QUOTE]
Riser crimp changed status again. Time for you experts to analyze. Note the right side cracks are hardly venting anymore. I assume that the drill pipe is sort of “crimped” down the center of this riser. Therefore it now appears at this point in the riser there are two chambers that do not communicate; a right (almost stopped) and a left (flowing mud). Now there are only two ways that right chamber shows no flow: 1) They plugged it. 2) They are cutting the riser off from the right side, or there has been a crack/break in the riser on the right side between the BOP and the riser crimp.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]879[/ATTACH]
PS thanks for the info on the DDII.
[QUOTE=CaptDaveB;34088]Both of you guys have b[ATTACH=CONFIG]881[/ATTACH]een very enlightening to us non oilfield folks on here. I appreciate the explanations and sometimes conflicting views presented. Neither of you having cold hard facts and no one expects either of you to be 100% accurate. Yall just keep on blogging about what you think is occuring. No need to blast each other…[/QUOTE]
[I]Personally[/I]…I’m MORE than capable of typing in bp.com myself…
For others: It’s [I]b[/I]…then a [I]p[/I]…followed by a period…and then the domain [I]com[/I]…
The reason we see the plume 24X7 is part of congress demanded it. This all started when the volumes were in dispute. BP claimed 5K Purdue thought it was much more. Past of Congress went nuts. Note BP owes royalties on every drop and even more when they spill it. Congress wants their $$$. Some want to bankrupt BP and any extension of drilling. Here is the link and more details. You should note the Web address. For the record BP never wanted to show the image of the oil gushing. They did it to make some people “happy”. The plumes video’s are killing the US drilling industry.
http://globalwarming.house.gov/spillcam
[QUOTE=company man 1;34104]The bottom line is Doug Settles is saying pay no attention to the plume right? then why has the freaking camera been focused on the damn plume for like 4 days now? There was a LOT of cement that came from somewehe this morning. Is it possible that it came from a boat dropping huge chunks in the water? I doubt it ? Then where did it come from? There has been another huge plume erupting with outrageous force since then & the color we’re not supposed to pay attention to since then has changed back to mostly oil. Due to the total lack of honesty by these people I have had to stay on this sight & report to many people who have emailed me privately letting me know I have been very helpful to their understandin of what’s actually going on as best as I can relay it. I might imagine their are attrorneys for family memebers & possibly family memebers of the very same people you say we are disrespecting who would like getting to the bottom of this totally avoidable disaster. I will say again for the record, either this will break BP finanfcially or they will just walk away at some point realizing that FINANCIALLY it isn’t worth it for them to keep this marage up. Then you will hear whailing & teeth nashing like never before in the history of this country.
Furthermore, with the announcement of the pulling of one of the rigs I predict that moment sooner than later.[/QUOTE]
[I]“Video of what appears to be an explosion and flying debris taken by the BP live blowout cam around 8am ET.”[/I]
This is the best video I myself have seen to raise my concerns over failure, which was high to begin with. At 2:50 I notice large chunks of what appear to be concrete fragments falling like shrapnel from a shell burst. Expert opinion or comentary would be appreciated. All I know is what it looks like to my eyes and imagination.
Remember depending on the distance and angle the video looks very different.
[QUOTE=bigmoose;34110]Riser crimp changed status again. Time for you experts to analyze. Note the right side cracks are hardly venting anymore. I assume that the drill pipe is sort of “crimped” down the center of this riser. Therefore it now appears at this point in the riser there are two chambers that do not communicate; a right (almost stopped) and a left (flowing mud). Now there are only two ways that right chamber shows no flow: 1) They plugged it. 2) They are cutting the riser off from the right side, or there has been a crack/break in the riser on the right side between the BOP and the riser crimp.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]879[/ATTACH]
PS thanks for the info on the DDII.[/QUOTE]
Fascinating technical discussion. My thanks to all who have contributed.
My question for those of you familiar with deep water drilling. At a press conference I saw several days ago, BP CEO Tony Hayward expressed great confidence that the relief wells would work. Is that confidence justified? And if so, how do they go about finding a fairly small diameter hole with another well coming in from the side? Do they have some sort of sonar-like technology for “seeing” into the rock formation in which they are drilling?
Just curious. Thanks in advance for any responses.
Michael Smith
[QUOTE=bigmoose;34110]Riser crimp changed status again. Time for you experts to analyze. Note the right side cracks are hardly venting anymore. I assume that the drill pipe is sort of “crimped” down the center of this riser. Therefore it now appears at this point in the riser there are two chambers that do not communicate; a right (almost stopped) and a left (flowing mud). Now there are only two ways that right chamber shows no flow: 1) They plugged it. 2) They are cutting the riser off from the right side, or there has been a crack/break in the riser on the right side between the BOP and the riser crimp.[/QUOTE]
I noticed the change as well, but I think it’s just that they moved the ROV slightly. If you look at the right side you can see a plume coming up from that side. When they were over a bit to the right, looking more WNW, they were caught up in that side plume and were getting clouded out occasionally. They have shifted a little to the left and are looking more NW now. Even now, when the current shifts a bit, you can see that right plume wander into view. I had seen that yesterday, so I don’t think it’s a dramatic change.
Now that I’ve heard the BP guy say they have not been able to try cement yet I have to change my opinion about what was in the eruption earlier. I wonder if there was a significant amount of mud cake which had settled into the crevices of the pipework which was jarred loose by the junk shot. That would better explain why it so quickly followed the junk. It would also explain why the chunks did not settle as fast as I expected for cement.
I must share CM1’s pessimism about this top kill working after what we’ve seen. I suspect they’ll be cutting off the riser and lowering the cap as soon as they throw in the towel and admit this is not working.
In the meantime, I’m happy to have them pump like heck for as long as they want. As long as the mud pumps are running there is little or no oil coming out. The oil which was reported at the surface today was probably from one of the periods where they were not pumping, because they do not seem to be spraying dispersant into the plume during the top kill operation. When they get oil in the relaxed flow between pumpings, that oil is headed straight for the surface. It sounds like they will need another day or so to get the next phase ready, so they will probably keep this up into tomorrow even if they think it is ultimately doomed to fail. And who knows, maybe they’ll get lucky and find the right mix of junk shapes and sizes to jam up the holes and actually get the mud going downhole.