[QUOTE=jmccaski;39819]I know Darryl, he’s got his head screwed on straight and is real live well control expert, as compared to some of us who just think they are (don’t take offense, I’m talking about me). If he says it’s good news, I’m betting it is.[/QUOTE]
If you were an investor would you buy BP stock at this point ?
[QUOTE=New Orleans Lady;39822]Next round of hearings to start next week https://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/3043/788559/eek https://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/3043/788559/ Vidrine, and Kaluza will testify july 20th; Mike Williams July 23rd[/QUOTE]
John will be attending. If anyone else on here is going to be there, you should try to meet up.
Mikey, Is it open to the public? If not, can I go as John’s Chief nurse mate lol <we could say he’s on new medication, and I have to monitor his blood pressure, esp if he’s seated between alcor, and CM1 . I m going monday,if they are allowing the gen. public.
[QUOTE=BLISTERS;39820] Does anyone know how much longer testing will go on for ?[/QUOTE]
It’s coming up on 31 hours now, so 17 more to go unless something changes.
There’s speculation that the reduced pressure may be due to crossflow between resevoirs.
Also, this is the first time I’ve read anything like it:
"A key turning point – one that set the strategy that led to the integrity test – came when government scientists in early June came up with a new, staggering estimate for the flow rate of 35,000 to 60,000 barrels a day. That spurred the government to demand that BP come up with a more robust set of containment measures. Allen said Thursday that, while developing this plan, it occurred to engineers that they might be able to use the new set-up to shut in the well."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/15/AR2010071500642_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2010071506710
[QUOTE=BLISTERS;39824]If you were an investor would you buy BP stock at this point ?[/QUOTE]
Investing at a blackjack table in Vegas would be more predictable.
With all the good undervalued energy companies out there I wouldn’t consider investing with BP right now. This baggage is going to drag on them for a long time.
Tengineer
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_gulf_oil_spill
Pressure readings after 24 hours were about 6,700 pounds per square inch and rising slowly, Allen said, below the 7,500 psi that would clearly show the well was not leaking. He said pressure continued to rise between 2 and 10 psi per hour. A low pressure reading, or a falling one, could mean the oil is escaping.
But Allen he said a seismic probe of the surrounding sea floor found no sign of a leak in the ground.
Benton F. Baugh, president of Radoil Inc. in Houston and a National Academy of Engineering member who specializes in underwater oil operations, warned that the pressure readings could mean that an underground blowout could occur. He said the oil coming up the well may be leaking out underground and entering a geological pocket that might not be able to hold it.
“A Whale” Operational Review Completed
NEW ORLEANS - After an extended trial period during which the supertanker skimming vessel “A Whale” was given an opportunity to demonstrate its capability to remove oil in open seas of the Gulf of Mexico, Federal On-Scene Coordinator Admiral Paul Zukunft today announced that it will not be deployed as a part of the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill response.
“A Whale,” the 1,115 foot long supertanker that sailed to the United States from Lisbon, Portugal, was modified in an innovative way, and went through an extensive operational review by a multiagency team under the supervision of the U.S. Coast Guard. The report concluded that after significant effort, the amount of oil recovered was negligible, and limited oil beyond a sheen was found in the cargo tanks. Over the same 24 hour testing period, the Unified Area Command mobilized more than 590 smaller, more agile skimmers to remove more than 25,551 barrels of oil water, conducted 26 controlled burns, and recovered 12,800 barrels at the source to continue to fight the oil as far offshore as possible.
“While its stature is impressive, ‘A Whale’ is not ideally suited to the needs of this response,” said Admiral Zukunft. “We appreciate the ingenuity of the TMT team to try to make this innovative system work under these unique conditions. This is the largest oil spill response in our nation’s history and we will continue to attack the oil as far offshore as possible with our fleet of hundreds of skimmers, controlled burns, and effective use of dispersant.”
Because the oil consists of relatively smaller patches and numerous ribbons spread very thinly across a great distance, the mission has required the deployment of smaller skimmers with the agility needed to maneuver and pursue oil in both crowded and open waters.
Since early June, at the direction of National Incident Commander Admiral Thad Allen, the number of skimmers fighting oil in the Gulf has been increased more than fivefold to 593 as of today. There are currently more than total 6,800 vessels responding on site, including skimmers, tugs, barges, and recovery vessels to assist in containment and cleanup efforts—in addition to dozens of aircraft, remotely operated vehicles, and multiple mobile offshore drilling units. Nearly 33 million gallons of an oil-water mix have been recovered and 387 controlled burns have been conducted, efficiently removing an additional 11 million gallons of oil from the open water in an effort to protect shoreline and wildlife.
[QUOTE=BLISTERS;39824]If you were an investor would you buy BP stock at this point ?[/QUOTE]
Both the family investor and I say, no–not at this point, and this price ($36.84 at the close of after-hours trading). At $25-28, and without a known gusher a mile away, maybe. At that point, you’re simply gambling, with a fair chance of wipeout (of not all that much) but also some chance for a really nice steep climb over a reasonable time horizon. Sorta like buying Ford as GM went into bankruptcy, or buying Citibank or BoA when they were, in reality, insolvent, but with the full faith and credit of the US gov’t behind them. Compare [I]their[/I] present prices! And remember that both Svanberg and Hayward are heading for the exits.
BTW, BP went down 4.68% today in regular trading and then another 0.70% in after-hours. On a day when all the [U]public[/U] news was all good? Think someone else, mebbe, also was hearing what cm1 passed along?
(I would also dearly love to know which way realists like Baugh (above) or Cavnar are putting their money…)
Buying BP stock would be immoral.<maybe that’s why, I m not wealthy> it has the blood , of those eleven men on its portfolio. It would be as immoral, as buying a foreclosed home, with knowing the family lost, with all they had for their children.
New capping stack drawing,
Note the bore pressure gauge.
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/posted/2931/3BOPSTACK.786815.pdf
Darryl Bourgoyne, director of the petroleum engineering laboratory at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, said today in an e-mailed message. “Pressure of 6,700 pounds per square inch indicates that if there is any leak, it is probably deeper than 4,500 feet (1,372 meters) below the seafloor and won’t reach the ocean.”
[QUOTE=BLISTERS;39820] I can’t figure how Darryl reckons from this figure probability of a leak based on this figure is likely below 4500 psi. [/QUOTE] I think I can make the numbers add up to explain 4500 feet … the ambient pressure increases by .44 psi per foot in seawater so the pressure at the mudline (5000 feet) is 2200 psi. I read on The Oil Drum a few weeks ago that it goes up by another 1 psi per foot under the mudline. So 4500 feet below the mudline the pressure would be 4500 + 2200 == 6700.
If a leak was above there, and the pressure at the wellhead is 6700, then it should force flow down the wellbore and out the leak and reduce pressure inside the wellhead.
If the leak was more than 4500 feet below the mudline then 6700 psi at the wellhead would not be enough to force flow down to flow out of the leak.
Therefore, any leak must be more than 4500 feet down. I’m guessing that is how he got there … a purely top-down static analysis.
[QUOTE=OneEyedMan;39837]I think I can make the numbers add up to explain 4500 feet … the ambient pressure increases by .44 psi per foot in seawater so the pressure at the mudline (5000 feet) is 2200 psi. I read on The Oil Drum a few weeks ago that it goes up by another 1 psi per foot under the mudline. So 4500 feet below the mudline the pressure would be 4500 + 2200 == 6700.
If a leak was above there, and the pressure at the wellhead is 6700, then it [I]should[/I] force flow down the wellbore and out the leak and reduce pressure inside the wellhead.
If the leak was more than 4500 feet below the mudline then 6700 psi at the wellhead would [I]not[/I] be enough to force flow down to flow out of the leak.
Therefore, any leak must be more than 4500 feet down. I’m guessing that is how he got there … a purely top-down static analysis.[/QUOTE]
Good try and thanks. I can agree with the 0.44 psi/ft figure for seawater hydrostatic gradient at the mud line. But don’t forget the well bore is shut-in, thus isolating this pressure, so it won’t have an influence on internal shut-in pressure, just as low atmospheric pressures outside of an airliner’s pressurized cabin won’t affect passengers unless there is a leak in the fuselage. The resultant 2200 psi at seawater gradient of 0.44 psi/ft would affect wellbore pressure if the well is open and flowing, acting against it.
The 1 psi/ ft is interesting but I have no idea how it was derived. Under normal compaction, worldwide average for formation gradient is close to 0.465 psi/ft. Shut-in or opened, fullbore pressures we are seeing are obviously overpressured or else the well would not flow. If it were pure gas flowing out we can calculate using a gas gradient of 0.12 psi/ft and likewise for oil at 0.30 psi/ft.
I will trawl TOD to see if I can find how they arrived at this figure.
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/audio/techAudio_160710_2pm.htm @ 06:0 min ,
Kent Wells pressure interpretation ranges are as follows :-
less than 5000 to 6000 psi = no integrity
greater than 7500 psi = well has integrity
With a 6000 to 7500 psi range here could be 2 scenarios as per modeling:-
That is if I heard him right @ 06:00 min into the audio clip.
1.0 psi/ft is the geostatic or overburden rock matrix density gradient.
This is a fabulous 20 minute presentation, by Shell and compares, their best practise, of deep water drilling, to bp…And this gives me the re assurance, that we need to get back to deep oil drilling, in GOM…with safe practices, in place. {makes bp look like the dollar store, compared to Bloomingdales}http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/15/bp-shell-and-the-design-of-deep-wells/?scp=1&sq=bp,%20shell%20and%20the%20design%20of%20deep%20wells&st=Search PS today is my birthday…and yes,I am 39,and don t look a day over 29. :>
http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/07/test_results_from_oil_well_not.html
Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said Friday afternoon that pressure readings from the cap have not reached the level that would show there are no other leaks in the well.
I would have thought that top kill had already given them this information. Did they think Nature deployed a band-aid and healed thyself?
Watch out for the undertow. Because there sure are a lot of undercurrents…
During the process of being able to control the choke and kill lines in the DWH BOP, BP recovered one of the BOP pods to the surface and fixed it and deployed it back to the DWH Bop, with with new umbilical and probably a hydraulic hotline from the Q4000.
Each BOP pod from the Cameron Mux control system has 2 computer and modem lines that talk with the 2 surface computers. If I am not mistaken the computers on the pods store the logs of the last operations done in them.
Question :
What was done with the hard drives data in the computers in this recovered pod? Did the Cameron team on board the Q4000 erase them or was this information passed on to the several investigation teams?
[QUOTE=alvis;39843]http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/07/test_results_from_oil_well_not.html
I would have thought that top kill had already given them this information. Did they think Nature deployed a band-aid and healed thyself?
Watch out for the undertow. Because there sure are a lot of undercurrents…[/QUOTE]
I agree. I actually thought they’d figured something out, something quite profound, which made them happy with a shut-in. Now it looks like we may well never know what crossflow, leakage or depletion is occurring.
I can imagine lots of furious debate throughout the engineers and government geniuses working on this!
[QUOTE=alvis;39843]http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/07/test_results_from_oil_well_not.html
I would have thought that top kill had already given them this information. Did they think Nature deployed a band-aid and healed thyself?
Watch out for the undertow. Because there sure are a lot of undercurrents…[/QUOTE]
These clowns are disconnected from nature let alone human nature and worst of all they are totally oblivious to it.
“For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.” - Dr. Richard Feynman.
Originally Posted by New Orleans Lady
Next round of hearings to start next week https://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/3043/788559/eek https://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/3043/788559/ Vidrine, and Kaluza will testify july 20th
Dell, can you help me out here please as I don’t understand what’s going on.
I’m not American, nor am I very “legal” savvy, but I thought that once someone had “taken the 5th” under US law, then they were only obliged (read… forced/have to be present) to appear thereafter only in a court of law to face criminal charges?
[QUOTE=tvhawaii;39818]If bandwidth is the problem, you might want to try:
http://data.plan9.de/akamai-bp-streams.html?
seems to be the most forgiving in that department.
Edit; Of course as soon as I posted that link, all the streams appear to be down…hopefully they’ll come back soon.[/QUOTE]
Thanks. It’s just that I live in the “back of beyond”. Nothing like US or European connectivity here.
[QUOTE=New Orleans Lady;39822]Next round of hearings to start next week https://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/3043/788559/eek https://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/3043/788559/ Vidrine, and Kaluza will testify july 20th; Mike Williams July 23rd[/QUOTE]
It will be interesting to see if Messrs Vidrine or Kaluza actually have anything substantial and worthwhile to say, or if they have been “gagged” somehow.