Deepwater Horizon - Transocean Oil Rig Fire

As many people here wondered about technical details, I think this leaked presentation in PDF format might shed some light.

http://www.mediafire.com/?nihjff1imy2#1

Origin: this popped up in another forum which consists mostly of conspiracy nuts (preview JPGs there):
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread580589/pg1

The files looks legit though.

I don’t think that pdf is leaked because I already have it. ?? Don’t remember where I got it originally though.

[QUOTE=navallo;35765]As many people here wondered about technical details, I think this leaked presentation in PDF format might shed some light.

http://www.mediafire.com/?nihjff1imy2#1

Origin: this popped up in another forum which consists mostly of conspiracy nuts (preview JPGs there):
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread580589/pg1

The files looks legit though.[/QUOTE]

The BPpresentation pdf file was released by the Feds on 5/29/2010

Government link that still works: http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100527/BP.Presentation.pdf [U][B][/B][/U]

[QUOTE=bigmoose;35769]The BPpresentation pdf file was released by the Feds on 5/29/2010[/QUOTE]
Nevermind then, sorry for bringing old stuff to the table.

FPSO en-route is reported to be Helix’s Toisa Pisces. The vessel has a processing capacity of 15,000bpd–the same as Discoverer Enterprise.

Given that capture rates at present seem to be limited by Enterprise’s process capacity, one hopes BP intends to use Pisces to supplement Enterprise rather than to replace it.

[QUOTE=navallo;35765]As many people here wondered about technical details, I think this leaked presentation in PDF format might shed some light.

http://www.mediafire.com/?nihjff1imy2#1

Origin: this popped up in another forum which consists mostly of conspiracy nuts (preview JPGs there):
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread580589/pg1

The files looks legit though.[/QUOTE]

Amazing how much those “conspiracy nuts” are looking at exactly what you folks are, and more, [U]perhaps a day earlier[/U]. If one does not imagine conspiracies, or oil spills, one cannot see them when they’re looking at them. [I](What oil spill?)[/I]
I see a conspiracy of coverup and silence by corporations and government regulators and politicians on this since day one. But few call me a nut. If they would I’d laugh at them, perhaps shake my head in wonder. There are nuts who believe in conspiracy, but all people who believe in conspiracy are not nuts. There is enough money lost and riding on this disaster to create much secrecy and skullduggery. This is the stuff of real conspiracies. The US revolution was a conspiracy. The only conspiracies we ever learn of are the failed ones. Granted there are some real wackos in the conspiracy movement, but then again, they’re not certified, licensed and regulated much. Maybe one day conspiracy theorists will be made illegal and we can be done with them. We know Goldman Sachs wouldn’t lie. [I]No offense to you meant, Navallo, and I’m glad you posted the link.[/I] I’m funning with you.
PS: Fluoride toothpaste is poison, but nobody thinks about the back panel. I haven’t used it in 10 years. But everything I quote here, I cite sources as I did in grad school. The closer to the original source the better. The poster on AboveTopSecret should have quoted [I]his[/I] sources for credibility. His message would have been stronger but he did not wish to share sources. Professionalism is hard to find these days among online. I like it here however and you folks are trying to know because [I]the secret is out there.[/I]

[QUOTE=TroubledByThis;35774]Amazing how much those “conspiracy nuts” are looking at exactly what you folks are, and more, [U]perhaps a day earlier[/U].[/QUOTE]
Well, I did not want to discredit conspiracy theorists per se, I am also wandering that paths from time to time. How else would I have stumbled over that document…
I just wanted to state the source where I found the document. If you look around the site, quite a lot of the topics popping up are rather obscure, like ‘Voodoo caused Hurricane Katrina and the Oil Spill’ or ‘Oil Spill Appears to be INTENTIONAL. Destroy the world for the allmighty DOLLAR’. That’s what I thought as ‘nuts’… no offence taken :wink:

[QUOTE=OldHondoHand;35762]I’d be real careful about using un-professional media sources, such as the myriad of bloggers that are out there. I spent some time looking at these sites and allegations, and the quotes you list are attributed to a comedian who said he was using satire.

Bad enough we have BP’s mis-information services team clouding the water, we don’t need to let the internet spew more crud into this thread.[/QUOTE]
Hondo, I don’t know that I’d call the ticker forum a totally unreliable source. The founder of the forum does a daily blog & has been right on target in many instances about the financial meltdown in 2008 & since. In fact he was one of the first to predict the credit crisis & at the time I beilieve he was being called a conspiracy nut. Turns out his nuttyness was fact based & predicted the fall of Lehman Brothers, Bear sterns, & Washington Mutual. I’d say that’s a pretty good batting average for an unreliable blogger.

[QUOTE=navallo;35778]Well, I did not want to discredit conspiracy theorists per se, I am also wandering that paths from time to time. How else would I have stumbled over that document…
I just wanted to state the source where I found the document. If you look around the site, quite a lot of the topics popping up are rather obscure, like ‘Voodoo caused Hurricane Katrina and the Oil Spill’ or ‘Oil Spill Appears to be INTENTIONAL. Destroy the world for the allmighty DOLLAR’. That’s what I thought as ‘nuts’… no offence taken ;)[/QUOTE]

There didn’t have to be a conspiracy wrapped up with a huge short position for Tony Hayward & Goldman Sachs to be culpable. Why would a banking giant sell of millions of shares of the most profitable of the big oil companies at a time when oil was @ $80/ Bbl. & rising? Maybe good old Tony told one of his pals at Goldman he was concerned because he knew his company was taking too many risks to generate excess profits & they decided to sell off a large part of their positions just in case something happened.

I’ve been trying to discern if this is true. From what I’m reading in the media, it appears that the Schlumberger crew were scheduled to leave that day – and the poor drilling decisions of the day had nothing to do with that.

Anyone know???

This is a good site for journalism with links to documents, in case some of you aren’t familiar. It’s not going to have the bleeding edge stuff like CM 1 is talking about, but the articles there are researched well, and referenced well. http://www.propublica.org/

[QUOTE=OldHondoHand;35750]Furthermore, wouldn’t the fact that the fluids at tremendous formations pressures be far more dense than fluids at surface pressures, causing them to act more like a solid than a liquid? Also, wouldn’t any kind of plug (cement or other, or casing collapse) in the hole act as stop to create a closed-end cylinder capturing the upwards force of the pressures below? If the casing lockdowns pins and/or rings were not installed, then what prevents the whole string from being lifted up to the top of the BOP stack?

Time for some of our brilliant and learned lurkers to weigh in on these fluid dynamics. Archimedes’ principle (of bouyancy) is all Greek to me.

Assuming Archimedes’ principle to be reformulated as follows,
then inserted into the quotient of weights, which has been expanded by the mutual volume
,yields the formula below. The density of the immersed object relative to the density of the fluid can easily be calculated without measuring any volumes:
(This formula is used for example in describing the measuring principle of a dasymeter and of hydrostatic weighing.)

etc, etc, etc… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bouyancy[/QUOTE]

Honda-handed Friend. I used to drive a Suzuki 4-stroke engine branded by Evinrude only because I couldn’t quite afford a Honda outboard. The important thing to remember is that [U]bouyancy[/U] is a principle explained by Archimedes, almost 2,000 years before [U]hydraulics[/U], later explained and defined by Blaise Pascal in the 1600’s. This “floating” of pipes has nothing to do with bouyancy and everything to do with hydraulics I feel.

His inventions include the hydraulic press, which multiplied a smaller force acting on a larger area into the application of a larger force totaled over a smaller area, transmitted through the same pressure (or same change of pressure) at both locations. This implies that by increasing the pressure at any point in a confined fluid, there is an equal increase at every other point in the container, i.e., any change in pressure applied at any point of the fluid is transmitted undiminished throughout the fluids.
~ from wikipedia

If a pipe is plugged somehow, it can behave like a piston in a cylinder. Like in your car brake’s lines which may be 1/4" in diameter, (area 0.05 sq in), if you slam on the brakes and push 50lbs, that 50lbs is distributed evenly everywhere on ALL surfaces of the closed system. If in that system there is a brake caliper of 1.25" diameter, it has (area 1.23 sq in) so 1.25/0.050) = 25x the surface area, and each unit of area has the same pressure, so the pressure on the caliper is 25x the 50lbs you put into the brake pedal or 1,250lbs squeeze on that brake disk. [I]That must be why boats don’t have brakes … they just float on bouyancy … (smile with me)[/I]

A 7" pipe with 8,000psi would work in a similar manner on a plugged pipe above say 18" by producing 8,000psi on every sq inch, even though the pressure was the same on each sq inch, to produce tremendous pressure like a hydraulic jack upon a larger piston. I feel this is the sort of lift we might be discussing here. I studied such things in college briefly. Related links:

http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/WindTunnel/Activities/Pascals_principle.html


Also while I’m posting … an update on the 2nd oil leak, summarily acknowledged but downplayed and dismissed by [U]Discovery magazine[/U]:

[B][SIZE=3]Second Oil Spill in Gulf Confirmed (So What?)[/SIZE][/B]

Rumors have been circulating for the last couple of weeks about the possibility of another oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico emanating from the Ocean Saratoga, a drilling rig about 12 miles southeast of the southern tip of the Mississippi Delta.
Turns out they were true. Sort of.
A report this evening confirmed that the spill is indeed real, but it’s very small – less than a barrel a day of oil is leaking into the gulf. And according to Taylor Energy, the spill isn’t coming from the Ocean Saratoga but but from a long-abandoned hole in the vicinity.
As you can see, oil from the Deepwater Horizon disaster dwarfs the slick here. [B]And with [/B][B]natural oil seeps [/B][B]pouring as much as 1.4 million barrels into the Gulf each year, it’s not wise to make a mountain out what strongly appear to be a molehill.[/B]
Granted, oil companies haven’t done much to garner public trust lately, but Taylor Energy’s statement indicates that the spill was [U]caused by a landslide[/U] on the seafloor after Hurricane Ivan rolled through the area in 2004. Since then, the company said it has been operating a (mostly) successful subsea containment system to capture oil from the destroyed well.
It’s worth pointing out that for the decade ending in 2008 (ie, before the Deepwater Horizon spill), natural oil seeps accounted for 9 times more oil discharged into U.S. waters than all the spills in the oil industry put together.
Still, the saga of the Ocean Saratoga and its nearby well highlights a worrying trend: from 2000 until 2009, oil spills on offshore rigs nearly quadrupled, and the number of barrels spilled per year increased compared to overall production, according to this analysis of records from the Minerals Management Service.
More broadly, there is the massive uncertainty about how many spills go unrecorded. The MMS has shown itself to be an inept regulatory agency riddled with corruption, but assumptions are dangerous.
What we do know is that 1. the Gulf ecosystem can handle a constant, relatively small amount of oil that naturally seeps into the sea every year, and 2. when independent observers start looking hard at oil and gas extraction activities in the Gulf, previously unreported leaks are found.
The major question that remains unanswered is: do unreported spills and leaks add enough oil to the Gulf to pose a significant hazard to marine life? Environmentalists might argue that any amount of oil is too much, but interestingly, the million-plus barrels of oil naturally flowing into the sea annually don’t support that argument – nature it seems, is somewhat more complex than that.
http://news.discovery.com/earth/second-oil-spill-in-gulf-confirmed-so-what.html

[B]Discovery Communications, Inc.[/B] ([B]DCI[/B]) (NASDAQ: DISCA, NASDAQ: DISCB, NASDAQ: DISCK) an American global media and entertainment company. The company started as a single channel in 1985, The Discovery Channel. Today, DCI has global operations offering 28 network entertainment brands on more than 100 channels in more than 180 countries in 39 languages for over 1.5 billion subscribers around the globe. It is also the Military Channel, TLC, Animal Planet, Discovery Health Channel and a family of digital channels. DCI also distributes BBC America and BBC World News to cable and satellite operators in the United StatesThe company’s slogan is: “The number-one nonfiction media company.”

[I]Discovery is absolutely BIG BUSINESS. It’s in the business of information … I did not like the article’s slant, but that’s just me. I worked on the Gulf and I find this "1.4 million barrels of oil seeps into the Gulf annually to be questionable, misleading and specious. In fact it seems crazy. I wish he would tell me more about that LANDSLIDE … but that’s not been “discovered” much yet I guess.[/I]

[B]http://www.doi.gov/deepwaterhorizon/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfile&PageID=34536

Well Design and Construction for All Wells
[/B][FONT=Times New Roman,Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Recommendation 3 of section II.B. of the Safety Measures Report establishes new casing and cementing design requirements and Recommendation 5 of section II.B. of the Safety Measures Report establishes new casing installation procedures. Thus, before you begin any new drilling operations using either a surface or subsea BOP stack or resume drilling operations that were suspended under NTL No. 2010 N-04, you must have all well casing designs and cementing program/procedures certified by a Professional Engineer, verifying the casing design is appropriate for the purpose for which it is intended under expected wellbore conditions. Also, while installing casing you must:
(a) Ensure casing hanger latching mechanisms or lock down mechanisms are engaged at the time the casing is installed in the subsea wellhead; and
(b) Verify the installation of dual mechanical barriers ([/SIZE][/FONT][I][FONT=Times New Roman,Times New Roman][SIZE=3]e.g., [/I][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman,Times New Roman][SIZE=3]dual floats or one float and a mechanical plug) in addition to cement to prevent flow in the event of a failure in the cement. This must be done for the final casing string. You must submit this verification to the appropriate District Manager (Regional Supervisor for Field Operations in Alaska OCS Region) no later than 30 days after installation of the dual mechanical barriers.
[/SIZE][/FONT]

[QUOTE=TroubledByThis;35791]Honda-handed Friend. I used to drive a Suzuki 4-stroke engine branded by Evinrude only because I couldn’t quite afford a Honda outboard. The important thing to remember is that [U]bouyancy[/U] is a principle explained by Archimedes, almost 2,000 years before [U]hydraulics[/U], later explained and defined by Blaise Pascal in the 1600’s. This “floating” of pipes has nothing to do with bouyancy and everything to do with hydraulics I feel.

His inventions include the hydraulic press, which multiplied a smaller force acting on a larger area into the application of a larger force totaled over a smaller area, transmitted through the same pressure (or same change of pressure) at both locations. This implies that by increasing the pressure at any point in a confined fluid, there is an equal increase at every other point in the container, i.e., any change in pressure applied at any point of the fluid is transmitted undiminished throughout the fluids.
~ from wikipedia

If a pipe is plugged somehow, it can behave like a piston in a cylinder. Like in your car brake’s lines which may be 1/4" in diameter, (area 0.05 sq in), if you slam on the brakes and push 50lbs, that 50lbs is distributed evenly everywhere on ALL surfaces of the closed system. If in that system there is a brake caliper of 1.25" diameter, it has (area 1.23 sq in) so 1.25/0.050) = 25x the surface area, and each unit of area has the same pressure, so the pressure on the caliper is 25x the 50lbs you put into the brake pedal or 1,250lbs squeeze on that brake disk. [I]That must be why boats don’t have brakes … they just float on bouyancy … (smile with me)[/I]

A 7" pipe with 8,000psi would work in a similar manner on a plugged pipe above say 18" by producing 8,000psi on every sq inch, even though the pressure was the same on each sq inch, to produce tremendous pressure like a hydraulic jack upon a larger piston. I feel this is the sort of lift we might be discussing here. I studied such things in college briefly. Related links:

http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/WindTunnel/Activities/Pascals_principle.html


Also while I’m posting … an update on the 2nd oil leak, summarily acknowledged but downplayed and dismissed by [U]Discovery magazine[/U]:

[B][SIZE=3]Second Oil Spill in Gulf Confirmed (So What?)[/SIZE][/B]

Rumors have been circulating for the last couple of weeks about the possibility of another oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico emanating from the Ocean Saratoga, a drilling rig about 12 miles southeast of the southern tip of the Mississippi Delta.
Turns out they were true. Sort of.
A report this evening confirmed that the spill is indeed real, but it’s very small – less than a barrel a day of oil is leaking into the gulf. And according to Taylor Energy, the spill isn’t coming from the Ocean Saratoga but but from a long-abandoned hole in the vicinity.
As you can see, oil from the Deepwater Horizon disaster dwarfs the slick here. [B]And with [/B][B]natural oil seeps [/B][B]pouring as much as 1.4 million barrels into the Gulf each year, it’s not wise to make a mountain out what strongly appear to be a molehill.[/B]
Granted, oil companies haven’t done much to garner public trust lately, but Taylor Energy’s statement indicates that the spill was [U]caused by a landslide[/U] on the seafloor after Hurricane Ivan rolled through the area in 2004. Since then, the company said it has been operating a (mostly) successful subsea containment system to capture oil from the destroyed well.
It’s worth pointing out that for the decade ending in 2008 (ie, before the Deepwater Horizon spill), natural oil seeps accounted for 9 times more oil discharged into U.S. waters than all the spills in the oil industry put together.
Still, the saga of the Ocean Saratoga and its nearby well highlights a worrying trend: from 2000 until 2009, oil spills on offshore rigs nearly quadrupled, and the number of barrels spilled per year increased compared to overall production, according to this analysis of records from the Minerals Management Service.
More broadly, there is the massive uncertainty about how many spills go unrecorded. The MMS has shown itself to be an inept regulatory agency riddled with corruption, but assumptions are dangerous.
What we do know is that 1. the Gulf ecosystem can handle a constant, relatively small amount of oil that naturally seeps into the sea every year, and 2. when independent observers start looking hard at oil and gas extraction activities in the Gulf, previously unreported leaks are found.
The major question that remains unanswered is: do unreported spills and leaks add enough oil to the Gulf to pose a significant hazard to marine life? Environmentalists might argue that any amount of oil is too much, but interestingly, the million-plus barrels of oil naturally flowing into the sea annually don’t support that argument – nature it seems, is somewhat more complex than that.
http://news.discovery.com/earth/second-oil-spill-in-gulf-confirmed-so-what.html

[B]Discovery Communications, Inc.[/B] ([B]DCI[/B]) (NASDAQ: DISCA, NASDAQ: DISCB, NASDAQ: DISCK) an American global media and entertainment company. The company started as a single channel in 1985, The Discovery Channel. Today, DCI has global operations offering 28 network entertainment brands on more than 100 channels in more than 180 countries in 39 languages for over 1.5 billion subscribers around the globe. It is also the Military Channel, TLC, Animal Planet, Discovery Health Channel and a family of digital channels. DCI also distributes BBC America and BBC World News to cable and satellite operators in the United StatesThe company’s slogan is: “The number-one nonfiction media company.”

[I]Discovery is absolutely BIG BUSINESS. It’s in the business of information … I did not like the article’s slant, but that’s just me. I worked on the Gulf and I find this "1.4 million barrels of oil seeps into the Gulf annually to be questionable, misleading and specious. In fact it seems crazy. I wish he would tell me more about that LANDSLIDE … but that’s not been “discovered” much yet I guess.[/I][/QUOTE]
Actually I can tell you about the Taylor leak. It occured during Katrina in 2005. The platform was caught in a mudslide on the edge of Mississippi Canyon. The wells were lost, but the safety systems they had in place & that were working protected the environment. Taylor is a responsible company that was owned by one of the best gentlemen in the business. He had the highest paying production comapny in the business & did things the right way. He also gave full scholarships to every single kid in Louisiana who carried a 3.0 GPA & wanted to go to college. He is responsible for instituting the TOPS program in the state. The leak coming form the destroyed platform is one to two barrels per day & they pay fines & royalties to the MMS every month on the well that is leaking. The destruction of this facility is well known throughout the GOM & Taylor has spent over $100 Million to attempt to find & permanently plug the 6 wells.
This is the problem with a disaster of this magnitude. It brings a boatload of bad will towards people in this business who do everything they can to do things the right way. Hurricane Katrina was an incredible act of God & no man made structure could have survived its fury. The Macondo well was a consilidation of negligent & incompetent acts which should have never occured.

I know one thing. There are a lot of wealthy folks, who own water front properties in Fla. who will not tolerate a greasey, smelley back yard,and I think that will motivate a solution to all this mess. As far as the Ceo’s for BP., if they don’t wise up, they will be sharing a cell with Mr Maddoff, and his like, or be in eternal seclusion for the rest of thier lives. How unfortunate for their children.

[QUOTE=New Orleans Lady;35794]I know one thing. There are a lot of wealthy folks, who own water front properties in Fla. who will not tolerate a greasey, smelley back yard,and I think that will motivate a solution to all this mess. As far as the Ceo’s for BP., if they don’t wise up, they will be sharing a cell with Mr Maddoff, and his like, or be in eternal seclusion for the rest of thier lives. How unfortunate for their children.[/QUOTE]

I heard on one of the TV media shows, possibly CNN, that Tony Hayward’s family now has security as they have received threats.

On Anderson Cooper 360 tonight, there was mention of the government working on a Gulf Coast Restoration Act that would help try and rebuild the area. And could be partially funded from additional fees for oil extraction from the Gulf. He, I didn’t get the gentlemen’s name, mentioned there was also talk of redirecting the Mississippi River to flood the marshlands in an attempt to heal that area.

And of course the news that the government will be asking BP to pay for the salaries of any one laid off as a result of the six month moratorium on deepwater exploratory drilling.

I wonder what kind of action the Justice Department will be taking to “ensure BP had enough money on hand to cover damages from the Gulf of Mexico spill.”

[QUOTE=company man 1;35793]Actually I can tell you about the Taylor leak. It occured during Katrina in 2005. The platform was caught in a mudslide on the edge of Mississippi Canyon. The wells were lost, but the safety systems they had in place & that were working protected the environment. The leak coming form the destroyed platform is one to two barrels per day & they pay fines & royalties to the MMS every month on the well that is leaking. The destruction of this facility is well known throughout the GOM & Taylor has spent over $100 Million to attempt to find & permanently plug the 6 wells.[/QUOTE]

Thanks my friend, I appreciate you. But as we know when a bad corporate apple cheats, cuts corners, rushes, abuses employees, all to make a bigger profit, unless corrected it encourages others to play along, like a bad apple spoils the bunch. I don’t know about Taylor but I did a LOT of research on my interests in the “[U]Discovery[/U]” article I quoted last page,[U]Second Oil Spill in Gulf Confirmed (So What?)[/U] http://news.discovery.com/earth/second-oil-spill-in-gulf-confirmed-so-what.html I t seems Michael Reilly, who wrote that simplistic piece, riled me up and since I can’t talk to him in his ivory tower of babble, I’ll share my research here with you. Select excerpts from his story:

“And with natural oil seeps[U]pouring as much as 1.4 million barrels into the Gulf each year.[/U]”
"[U]natural oil seeps accounted for 9 times more oil discharged into U.S. waters than all the spills in the oil industry put together[/U]."
“Taylor Energy’s statement indicates that the spill was caused by a[U] landslide on the seafloor after Hurricane Ivan[/U] rolled through the area in 2004.”
“Environmentalists might argue that any amount of oil is too much, but interestingly, the million-plus barrels of oil naturally flowing into the sea annually don’t support that argument – nature it seems, is somewhat more complex than that.”


My reply and questions from research resulting …

Council (NRC, 1975; NRC, 1985) (see summary by Kvenvolden and Simoneit, 1990). Although it is clear that hydrothermal petroleum occurs in the sea, the rates of seepage are unknown, but are believed to be very small, and therefore are not included in the new global assessment.
In 1975, the estimated worldwide rate of natural seepage of oil into the marine environment ranged widely from 200,000 to 6,000,000 tonnes per year, with a “best estimate” of 600,000 tonnes per year. These rates were based on a comprehensive global survey incorporating extensive geological considerations, but used extrapolations from only a few known seeps. In 1985, little new information had become available, and estimates of individual oil-seep rates had not changed significantly.

Although only a few new seeps have been identified and estimates of known crude-oil deposits throughout the world have not changed greatly from about 300,000 million tonnes, new technologies, particularly [U]remote sensing techniques[/U], have provided better means of natural seep detection and assessment. [U]Studies in parts of the Gulf of Mexico[/U] (MacDonald et al., 1993; MacDonald, 1998; Mitchell et al., 1999), [U]using these new technologies, have resulted in an estimated seepage rate for the entire GoM of 140,000 tonnes per year[/U].
The new North American estimate of 160,000 tonnes per year is only 40,000 tonnes less than the 1985 global estimate of 200,000 tonnes per year, suggesting that the 1985 value was grossly underestimated. [U]To accommodate the new information now available, the “best estimate” of the global crude oil seepage rate has been revised to 600,000 tonnes per year, reviving an estimate made originally in 1975[/U]. These limits are set by the amount of crude oil seepage estimated for North American waters and the amount of crude oil ultimately available for natural seepage during geologic time.
[U][SIZE=1]http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10388&page=69[/SIZE][/U]

[I]They adjusted the world estimate to fit one study using “sensing devices” in the just GoM? But even then doing the math …[/I]
1 toe = 7.11, 7.33, or 7.4 [U]barrel of oil equivalent[/U] (boe) [I]140,000tons x 7.4=1,036,000 barrels not 1.4million[/I]
[U][SIZE=1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ton_of_oil_equivalent[/SIZE][/U]

[SIZE=1][B][SIZE=2]How much of this seep is methane, not crude oil? I can show evidence that MOST oil seeps up and is transformed by archea and and bacteria at depths into methane which is further consumed by a layer above that, and what is left over escapes, presumably much of it as methane, not oil. [/B][/SIZE]

[B][ATTACH=CONFIG]959[/ATTACH][/B]

[B][SIZE=2]If dinosaurs are from where oil comes from and this oil has been seeping at this rate for say, 20 million years, then that is 20,000,000 x 160,000 tons from the GoM = 3.2 million, million tons (3.2 TRILLION TONS) of “dinosaur juice” has escaped from the GoM in the last 20 million years. [/B][B]I assume either:[/B]

[B][SIZE=2]1. they are using sensors to detect present amounts and making INFERENCES that this is normal. This is not good science because the sensor cannot determine the origin of the oil whether natural or manmade.[/B]

[B][SIZE=2]2. Oil is abiotic in origin and not sourced from dead fossil remains. [/B][/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE]

[B]73.78 million barrels/day = 10 million tons/day x 365 = 365 million tons per year[/B] (world extraction 2008) [/SIZE]
[U]http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/txt/ptb1105.html[/U]

[B][I][U]Consider that it would take us[/U] 3.2 trillion tons at leak rate per yr / 365 million tons world usage rate per yr = [U]8,767 years at 2008 rate of WORLD consumption to use up the oil that has presumably naturally seeped up from the GoM in the last 20 million years[/U]. [/I][I]I find my analysis staggering. Perhaps I am wrong, check my work, but something surely doesn’t add up.[/I][/B]

Offshore oil production involves environmental risks, [U]Produced water[/U] is generated, which is excess water from well drilling or production and includes varying amounts of oil, [U]drilling fluid[/U] or other chemicals used in, or resulting from, oil production. According to the organization Culture Change, a [U]Gulf of Mexico[/U] rig dumps about 90,000 tons of drilling fluid and metal cuttings over its lifetime, with its wells also contributing with heavy metals.[[I][U]citation needed[/U][/I]]
[U]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshore_oil_drilling[/U]

[I]Regarding Hurricane Ivan as mentioned as the cause of the “landslide” that produced these leaks:[/I] Ivan struck [U]Gulf Shores, Alabama[/U] as a strong Category 3[U] storm[/U].
[U]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan[/U]

[I]Regarding landslides in the Mississippi canyon of GoM:[/I]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]DOI: 10.1306/A1ADDAB2-0DFE-11D7-8641000102C1865D 0[I]GCAGS Transactions [/I]Volume 32 (1982)
[/SIZE][/FONT]It is highly probable, therefore, that the canyon originated from massive shelf-edge slope failure on an unstable continental margin. A series of successive failures, each one creating an upslope instability that triggered the next failure, caused an elongate trough to form that excavated the canyon. Once the canyon has formed, its steep side walls continued to be unstable and sediments slumped into the canyon axis, forming the initial canyon fill. [U]This phase is well documented: the lowermost sediment fill is composed of displaced material similar to that now found on the canyon rim. Large scars from side-wall failures can also be easily mapped on the seismic data[/U]. From 20,000 years to approximately 5,000 years B.P., a series of late Wisconsin and Holocene delta lobes formed and were responsible for the remainder of the fill of the canyon.[U] During the past 5,000 years only a thin deep-water pelagic drape has been deposited within the canyon[/U]. Maps have been constructed that depict the various horizons, and the geometry of these [B]horizons[/B] verify this mode of formation.
[U]http://search.datapages.com/data/doi/10.1306/A1ADDAB2-0DFE-11D7-8641000102C1865D[/U]

We’re overdue for slides?

[B]“[I]Large skepticism leads to large understanding. Small skepticism leads to small understanding. No skepticism leads to no understanding.” [/I][/B]~ Xi Zhi (borrowed from another poster here)

[QUOTE=New Orleans Lady;35794]I know one thing. There are a lot of wealthy folks, who own water front properties in Fla. who will not tolerate a greasey, smelley back yard,and I think that will motivate a solution to all this mess.[/QUOTE]

There’s wealth and then there’s [I][B]wealth[/B][/I]. Florida’s waterfront residents have the former. BP has the latter and then some.

A wealthy individual going after an oil supermajor is like trying to take on a tank with a pea shooter.

New NTL -05 (NOTICE TO LESSEES) on Increased Safety Measures for Energy Development on the OCS

MMS now requires that all CEOs of oil companies with production or driling unit in the OCS:
…"(1) a general statement by the operator’s Chief Executive Officer (authorized official) certifying the operator’s compliance with all operating regulations at 30 CFR 250 and (2) a separate statement certifying compliance with each of the 4 specific items above."
This second part is related to BOP & Operator training…

"You must certify each of the 4 specific items above separately, and include the following statement in your written certification: “By signing this certification, I certify in my capacity as authorized official that the statements herein are true and complete to the best of my knowledge. I understand that the submission of false statements to the United States is a criminal offense under 18 U.S.C. Section 1001.” "

Recommend you all read it.
http://www.doi.gov/deepwaterhorizon/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfile&PageID=34536

It will put the full pressure on the top of the companies (CEOs having to certify that they are complying with the regs…)

Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.
----------------Confucius