[QUOTE=alvis;36676]I’m not qualified to give a synopsis of the article but will anyway. All things stated are from the perspective of the author.
BP is being secret and isn’t releasing technical details that would allow us to follow along with what’s happening. So we have to infer what’s going on with the well through their actions. A lot of information can be gathered from the top kill attempt. This process, by design and if it works, should not take days to complete. By nature, it happens quickly within a matter of hours. BP taking so long is an indication they wanted to test the structural integrity of the well by slowly increasing the pressures and rates. They floated a reason top kill failed to WSJ because of a malfunctioning disk inside the well about 1,000 feet below the ocean floor. There are no disks in the well, all there is is well bore. This means the casing is ruptured and oil is leaking into the surrounding formation 1,000 feet below. Which means if BP restricts the flow of oil coming out of the riser, this means more pressurized oil enters the surrounding formation and erodes it further. BP want’s to eliminate some of this back pressure from the well by letting more oil flow out of the well because they know if they don’t, the surrounding formation will erode to the point where it takes away the support of the sea floor and either starts leaking through channels to the sea floor or caves in the sea floor. They were doing inclinometer readings because they know the surface casing is starting to lean/tilt more after they cut the riser off. As the formation starts to erode around the casing, the support structure that helps support the weight of the bop becomes weaker and susceptible to collapse allowing full oil flow from the reservoir.
Because of what I have just stated, all roads lead to one destination. A fully wide open well bore directly to the oil reservoir. We’re screwed. We couldn’t top kill it and we won’t be able to bottom kill it. The oil will flow until the reservoir runs dry some 2.5 billion barrels later.
If I misinterpreted anything or left anything important out, feel free to add.[/QUOTE]
This is a very valid possibility that is being discussed by industry well kill experts I know and have met with this week. Also bottom kills from a relief well have to pump at a rate and pressure / density to overcome the flowing oil and displace it with a heavy mud or eventually cement. There is serious doubt that this is now possible with the high flow rate and a larger diameter eroded wellbore.