China, U.S, Taiwan

The Chinese are claiming this is just a weather balloon that drifted off. I say wait until it goes back over water and use it for target practice.

I’m not an expert on balloons in any shape or form, but aren’t they just drifting with the wind without any way of controlling their trajectory, only altitude?

In the case of high altitude balloons that mean that once they gets up in the high troposphere they are carried by the jet stream to wherever that may be. (??)

I know that the jet stream changes both where it flows and strength and that this is important for weather forecasting, thus observations and predictions are made by many nations.

It is also possible to backtrack the trajectory of anything carried by the jet stream, incl. balloons, to determine were it originated from. It can also be forecasted where it is going.
In fact this has been done for this balloon:

Are the Chinese able to make a balloon stop and hover over a desired area for days, or will that only happen if the balloon somehow gets out of the jet stream? (Move to lower or higher altitude)

Why use an “uncontrollable” and not very sophisticated balloon when China has ample coverage of the US mainland using their already existing spy satellites??

Is there a five year old Chinese boy in it?

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The balloongate plot thickens. When asked about news reports of ominous balloon headed east to spy on his beach house, President Biden blames Trump with collusion with the Chinese and angrily responds that there is no “there, there”.

Meanwhile, Defense Department spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder attempts to ease public unrest by demonstrating how he plans to poke a hole in the balloon with his government issued BIC pen.

Screenshot 2023-02-03 170124

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The PRC showed their resolve when they bumped an EP-3 in 2002, forcing the plane to land on Hainan island. PRC sent the plane back in pieces, after inspecting all the secrets contained. . The US has also showed its resolve - just in negative integers. As a veteran, I am totally embarrassed by the military’s lack of action. This ballon should have been shot down as soon as it violated US airspace. Better to have done it over land to inspect the debris, but certainly tolerable to have destroyed it over the PAC.

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The excuse about not shooting it down to avoid endangering people on the ground sounds lame. The most advanced military on the planet isn’t capable of bringing this balloon down without completely destroying so we can inspect it so we’re just going to let it go on its merry way? WTF?..over.

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Balloon is high enough up to not interfere with air traffic but close enough for US sigint to monitor any information being gathered and the means by which it was being gathered. Shooting it down would end that. US citizens spend over a trillion dollars a year for their military so I’m pretty sure the US military could shoot down a balloon if it was worthwhile.

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Chinese have plenty of spy satellites orbiting over the U.S… Chinese airliners fly over the USA daily. So how can an unguided balloon flying over mostly sparsely populated areas collect any significant data?

We won’t know why it was launched until it has been studied, and if it is shot down we’ve reduced our ability to do that. We are analyzing its transmissions to see what changes with time. Kill it and we can’t do that. Announce that we are analyzing the balloon’s capabilities and the Chinese operators may change the way they operate it, complicating our analysis.

There was a reason why during the Cold War we allowed Soviet spy trawlers to enter American ports like Lahaina, and even allow their crews to go ashore. We knew they were spy ships spying on us. They regularly tracked our fleets. But we were spying on them too, learning their capabilities. I remember walking past the spy crews on shore leave, and I’m sure they were all being tracked too.

Agreed, but my caveat is that we don’t have any interceptors, with guns, that operate at 60k feet. Sure you could get a SAM up there, but the warhead would, most likely, destroy it. That said, I’m TOTALLY OK with a good old fashioned SAM! ! !

I’m not privy to US collection capabilities in its entirety or depth, but sometimes it’s the stuff we don’t know what we don’t know, that bites us in the butt. While I may accept your thesis, on a “military” basis, I reject it on a political one. We have failed to show the PRC our resolve; and the “don’t fu@k with us” part.

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“So how can an unguided balloon flying over mostly sparsely populated areas collect any significant data?”

  1. Lots of time to collect SIGINT. What electronic emissions the US are using to track & communicate. That isn’t done via China Air 777’s.

  2. While the satellites are capable, their timing & path are predictable. Furthermore, if optical & infared sensors are closer to the ground, the sensors have better resolution.

  3. It’s not flying over sparsely populated areas anymore. Great opportunity for increased SIGINT gathering.

US military doesn’t appear to be too worried about the whole thing:

It could have been detected in the Aleutians and shot down over the Pacific, if it was predicted to be drifting towards the US and suspected of being a spying device.

“China hawks” has been trying to stop all attempts at improving the relations for years. How much of this “Balloongate” excitement is caused by US domestic policy and partisanship?

Source:

Both the F-15 and the F-22 can reach altitudes in excess of 60k feet and could easily shoot down the balloon but there’s no point in destroying it. If there’s any value to be gained from it, it has to be brought down in one piece or at least in as few pieces as possible.

So you should perhaps leave this issue to the experts. You’re paying them over a trillion dollars a year ! Thank them for their service and let them do their job.

Hilarious. A trillion+ dollars a year and can’t defeat a balloon? /s

The trajectory should be predictable enough so it can be brought down over the Atlantic and recovered without endangering anyone. Until then the Chinese can have a good laugh at all the angst they’ve created.

It has been drought down within US waters and the debris will be recovered.
Will we ever know what this thing REALY was?
If it actually was a weather balloon, like the Chinese claim, it is hardly likely that Pentagon will say so.

Which government do you trust more, Bugge? Oh… never mind.

I don’t trust any government to tell the truth and I don’t think that we will be told the truth about this balloon, no matter what it may be.

The ASEAN countries are not too enthusiastic about the prospect of further escalation on US-China distrust, causing increased tension in the region either:

Not only ASEAN, even some Republicans are skeptical:

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/04/biden-china-xi-history/?