[QUOTE=Slick Cam;181075]I keep asking myself, what’s going to happen when everything is automated and people are not needed for most labor? Will we overcome our current system of trading labor for goods and services, and move to a more enlightened state, or devolve into dystopia and chaos?[/QUOTE]
We will be sitting on the beach sipping Campari while watching the autonomous ships sailing past and checking the stock market to see how our investment in shipping is growing.
[QUOTE=ombugge;181083]When all ships are autonomous there will not be a need to pick up people in distress. Until then there will still be SAR vessels and helicopters to do so. There will still be manned vessels around for the foreseeable future however.[/QUOTE]
All vessels will NEVER be autonomous.
[QUOTE=ombugge;181082]No alarm will go off in the C/Eng. cabin since there will not be any C/Eng. to get annoyed, or any cabins for that matter.
Any system alarm will be dealt with by shore based personnel, who will be able to check the status of the machinery, system or individual equipment to verify if it is a faulty sensor, or a serious problem. In the last case there will be 100% redundancy, just like on a DP3 vessel today.
If I haven’t said it before I will repeat it here: We are NOT talking about taking an existing vessel, with yesteryear’s technology and machinery and making it autonomous. We are talking about vessels designed, built, equipped and programmed to operate autonomously, but with someone sitting in a control centre somewhere who can, if necessary, take control remotely.[/QUOTE]
I don’t believe we are even close to technology that removes the need for an engineer to physically be there to verify alarms. How do you know if the sensor is reading correctly unless you can go verify its reading manually?
I literally cannot imagine how a ship can operate reliably without a crew. However my ablity to imagine something is not a requirement for it’s existence.
[QUOTE=Kennebec Captain;181106]I literally cannot imagine how a ship can operate reliably without a crew. However my ablity to imagine something is not a requirement for it’s existence.[/QUOTE]
A short sea ship or ferry able to do autonomous trips could be built tomorrow, but it wouldn’t be allowed to sail because the legal requirements are not in place yet.
When a large tanker or container ship etc. would be approved for autonomous voyages across oceans is some if not many years off, but that it will happen is not in doubt, only the time aspects is open to discussion.
It will not be USA taking the lead here, that is for sure.
[QUOTE=Capt. Phoenix;181091]All vessels will NEVER be autonomous.
I don’t believe we are even close to technology that removes the need for an engineer to physically be there to verify alarms. How do you know if the sensor is reading correctly unless you can go verify its reading manually?[/QUOTE]
By doing so remotely.
I can tell you first hand than nothing on ships is 100% redundant
[QUOTE=ombugge;181109]By doing so remotely.[/QUOTE]
How? Do you have robots onboard that can put a heat gun on something? Or manually check all the other possible alarms to be sure they aren’t faulty? How can you remotely verify the remote sensors are correct?
[QUOTE=brjones;181111]I can tell you first hand than nothing on ships is 100% redundant[/QUOTE]
Not on existing ship that you have served on, but before autonomous ship gets approved IT WILL HAVE TO BE.
We are not talking about taking any old ship and do some basic conversion, but to design, build and equip the ships of the future for autonomous operation, with all the necessary systems in place to do so safely.
I am of the old schooled that sailed on ships built in the 1930s, 40s and 50s, some even without radar or gyro, but I am also able to see that the future ships will be VERY different, even from today’s premium vessels.
Vessels with DP3 class may be the closes to that future, but not 100% there yet.
Some of the brightest brains in the ship design and automation business is hard at work to make the autonomous ship a reality, sooner rather than later.
You may as well get used to the idea. I don’t, I’m too old for this shit, but it will probably happen within my life time, I.A.
Those ships would have to be designed with every system completely separate and in multiples. More than just two pumps or two motors. You would have to have two JW systems, two LO systems, two FO systems. Just about every component in the power management would have to be in multiples by the time it’s all said and done it would have been cheaper to keep a crew
This won’t happen in my career and willing to bet in any one else coming out today. Not saying it won’t ever, but hey in the 50’s they said we would have flying cars by now right?
Economics. If the cost of a crew is more than the cost of a autonomous and increase in insurance, inability to repair things while steaming, etc etc, then crews will not be used.
Look towards land for similar advancements. Modern gas turbine power plants are very autonomous with motor operated valves “push to start” control systems and fewer humans. But somebody still has to walk around and fix broken things, and bang on the stuck valve, hang up plastic so the leak doesn’t damage other stuff, etc.
When a power plant on land shuts down, no money is made until the broke stuff is fixed. When a ship at sea shuts down…?
[QUOTE=brjones;181121]Those ships would have to be designed with every system completely separate and in multiples. More than just two pumps or two motors. You would have to have two JW systems, two LO systems, two FO systems. Just about every component in the power management would have to be in multiples by the time it’s all said and done it would have been cheaper to keep a crew
This won’t happen in my career and willing to bet in any one else coming out today. Not saying it won’t ever, but hey in the 50’s they said we would have flying cars by now right?[/QUOTE]
I’d be interesting seeing some details. I wonder if they would use a diesel-electric system with multiple engine rooms?
Fuel oil could be processed ashore, a lot of man-hours goes into managing the heavy fuel oil, waste oil etc. They’d be no hotel functions, some heat/cool, no potable/waste water, no galley support, no reefers.
Seem like the turn-around times would be longer as more work would have to be done in port.
I would imagine that an autonomous ship would have an engineer or two onboard. . . just sayin’
You need people to blame when things go wrong. No company wants to get sued when they can blame a poor mariner.
that would be just great…I can see the automation system reading the lips of the engineers and reporting everything they say to Joe Boss
A lot of what we read about Terrorism involves Hacking now a days and this would or could be a major problem for this idea.
Just think about someone in XXX Country sitting behind their Computer hacking into a ships system and all of a sudden it’s heading in a different direction. Picture a Fully Laden VLCC heading straight for the coast line, that’s not answering any of the Controllers Commands. This is not as far fetched as it may sound.
I do not care how many Firewalls are put up someone will find a way through them. There already stories floating around about cars being hacked and causing them to ignore the commands from the driver.
Maybe, I am of a dying breed but a Ship, Tug, Ferry or anything else on the water needs some crew onboard to handle emergencies. As was stated a couple of posts ago, if something goes wrong who is the Company going to blame when there is no crew onboard?
Knowing how cheap shipowners are, once they spend the extra money to build the automated ship to eliminate Mariners they will be just as cheap with repairs. No mariner to complain, just ignore problems longer. We also notice many issues before they’re real issues. Vibrations, condensation, stuff there’s no way a sensor will detect or deal with. And when Joe boss gets the message saying there’s a vibration he will certainly ignore it until the ship breaks down with nobody aboard to fix it.
We know how well dp3 worked on the aiviq, and these non dp cruise ships with redundant engines rooms
Said this in another thread:
Somebody will have to fix the machinery and keep it running. So engineers will be needed.
Somebody will have to do the paper work and deal with the entropy of modern government and regulation. mates and A/E?!? will be needed
And I bet, at many points, somebody will still have to ensure the damn thing doesn’t run into stuff (and avoid navee ships). Deck will still be needed.
[B]And lastly, somebody will always be on the ship for the corp suit monkeys to blame when the shit hits the fan. Captain still needed. [/B]
[QUOTE=johnny.dollar;181146]Said this in another thread:
Somebody will have to fix the machinery and keep it running. So engineers will be needed.
Somebody will have to do the paper work and deal with the entropy of modern government and regulation. mates and A/E?!? will be needed
And I bet, at many points, somebody will still have to ensure the damn thing doesn’t run into stuff (and avoid navee ships). Deck will still be needed.
[B]And lastly, somebody will always be on the ship for the corp suit monkeys to blame when the shit hits the fan. Captain still needed. [/B][/QUOTE]
The plan is to shift tasks shoreside. For example the plan is for an officer to be controlling the ship from ashore, same as a drone pilot. Presumably he would be responsible for any mishap.
Engine rooms today go ummanned for 12 hrs or more. The engine room of an unmaned ship would have far few systems. They will need to run ummanned for how long? Twenty or thirty days at most?
I’m not saying it can be or should be done but money is being spend and it’s being worked on by some smart people so presumably there has been at least some thought put into it.
Now if we have autonomous warships will sailors still be called sailors?
How will autonomous ships affect the Jones Act? Isn’t there a requirement for them to be manned with a certain percentage of US mariners? What comes first, autonomous ships or foreign mariners on US flagged vessels?
I’m imagining that shoreside ‘captains’ will be in charge of a fleet of vessels that are in-route at any given time. Will they have enough situational awareness to deal with all potential problems?
Is every single error sent ashore, or does a program only select certain errors that have been selected as ‘important’ by some software engineer who has no experience in the field?
Every thing I know about this I read in this Economist article from last year. They describe moving tasks ashore in steps.
