As of late May, sea surface temperatures (SST) are cooler than normal over most of the eastern half of the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) while they remain warmer than normal over the southwestern North Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf. This is in contrast to 2024, when most of the Atlantic was warmer than normal.
As a result, this year’s outlook has a much higher degree of uncertainty which is apparent in the large range of storm predictions from various forecast centers. Forecasts for the total number of named tropical cyclones for this year range from as little as 10 to as much as 19 with 5-10 expected to reach hurricane strength and 2-6 becoming major hurricanes. The average season will produce 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. During 2024, there were 18 named systems with 11 becoming hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
Full Reort 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update