Not being a professional mariner but have a new found interest in the trade and have been following this tread for reports and like everyone hoping for positive news,
I have just seen the El Faro lifesaving equipment list and it does lend to some hope.
In addition to the two 43 person lifeboats the boat had four 25 person life rafts and a 6 person life raft on the bow. All designed to free float and self deploy. I have no idea what it would be like to try to swim to a deployed life raft in a Cat 4 hurricane. If it’s even possible.
Additionally, There is a NWS graphic that depicts how the forecast track and strength predictions were changing constantly. Clearly a huge factor.
Using the controls of the graphic on the left and manually advancing the images one by one and noting the time it tells the story of this storm doing exactly the worst thing for the El Faro and crew.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5W.shtml