CAVEAT – My opinion means nothing.
The S&P 500 could easily shed another 12%-15% taking it down to the 2,038-2,110 range. I like the bottom from here down to that level. Why? There’s a great deal of support at around 2,100.
I’ll be a net buyer from here on out. I will likely deploy the first third of my available cash soon. But not tomorrow. This boulder looks to be rolling downhill at quite a clip.
My opinion means nothing either.
I would like to know who is selling this stuff to take the markets so low? I sold bonds & other types of funds a couple weeks ago but only funds that had a positive 1Y return at that time. There’s no way in hell I’m selling anything at a 10-40% lose. I fear it’s mutual fund managers selling peoples 401k & ira shares really low for some bizarre reasons?
I know I wish I had more available money put aside to buy more into this down markets but I’m tapped out until some investments matures in a few months. Before, I always put my dividends into the conservative bucket but not anymore. I’m buying as much as I can in the S&P. I’ve been investing in 401k’s for over 20 years & now is the only time that I haven’t been diversified in my paycheck contribution. Everything that I contribute is in high risk, no low interest paying bonds, money market or income earning funds for me.
I like to read financial articles & I recently read something that made sense to me. One financial analyst theorized the markets will start going back up whenever a reputable (or popular) source says the worst is behind us or a vaccine or a successful treatment is made available. And below is something from Marketwatch that says its possible that the markets will start coming off the bottom before the virus peaks. But either way, I’m in it for the long haul & won’t sell at a lose even if I have to work past my planned retirement target.
Short answer: the big money. Coupled with margin de-leveraging, you get big moves down. Now, the weird thing is that everything gets sold to raise cash. That’s why gold took a hit.
I’m short the market (Cash and Inverse ETF’s). I was late to that game but better late then never. It can keep falling as far as I’m concerned. But…since I realize so many others are taken severe hits to their portfolios I hope things change for the better soon.
I will say that I will not go long based solely on random upside market action. I may back off on the inverse ETF’s a bit but until I see news reports of of long lines at restaurants and movie theaters and reports of declining infected numbers and vaccines that seem to be working I won’t be long the market.
I can say that when the news changes and it finally bottoms the ride back up is going to be fast and intense. I will have a good percent in leveraged ETF’s on the way up. That will be the most fun.
If this is over your head, just keep what you have invested and you’ll be real happy goin forward. Buy and hold always works in the long term. It may take several years as it did after the 2008 hit but you’ll be fine.
Good luck!
When this corona financial volatility first started I did nothing but as time went by I sold most of my holdings upon which I had made a profit over the past several years as I figured this was the black swan. Most stocks were historically over priced anyway. Most bonds I kept. I expect things to fall much further perhaps down to 2008-09 levels. I’m now all set to do nothing for awhile until things settle down. It’s much too volatile to make sense of presently. I continue to buy the maximum annual amount of Series I US Savings bonds for me and every family member I am allowed to buy for, they are a no brainer. At least you keep up with inflation and are super safe, actually the only Treasury completely backed by the USA.
At first when I read your post I thought, “Keep up with inflation? This guys portfolio sounds ultraconservative & he is never going to make any money.” But then I remembered you are retired & already made your fortune by decades of work & diligent saving & investing. Kudos to you. Something tells me a retirement where my financial goal is to only make a profit above inflation is going to be nice. Something to ponder on my way to retirement. How & when to give up the risky business of growing my net worth & just protect the sufficient amount that I already put aside?
At present I am conserving capital. I was not overly conservative prior to this event but I decided to take my profits where they existed within the last few weeks. I still have some money losing stocks but most pay dividends and since I DRIP most of them they’ll be buying cheap shares. The cash I am sitting on will be reinvested when things settle down, who knows when that will be. Many stocks are still historically over priced but that will work itself out. Ray Dalio, who is a pretty good investor, says the US growth may contract by as much 30% in Q2. Junk and low investment grade bonds are turning toes up and it will get worse. More pain to come but been there done that, money to be made eventually if capital is preserved. I hope the crap managed companies that squandered their nest egg or borrowed money to buy back shares are allowed to fail. We will soon see who has been swimming naked when this tide is gets low.
I may be half crazy. but stocks are on a fire sale. It may take a bit of good news and warmer weather, choose wisely. As I have said in the past, don’t be greedy and choose well run companies that pay a dividend. Some have chosen recently to suspend or reduce dividends( Ford and GE) which have not been my champions for sure, bought GE during the last big flummox many moons ago at less than $4.00 per share.,but also paid much higher prices when Jack was at the helm. As that old captain told me, we still have to pay for water, electricity, and what used to be phone bills…internet. Everything is on sale, pick your poison.
Tengineer1, Was not as stealthy as you perhaps when the market took this dump, but have been through many ups and downs. This one is a doozy. I always tried to keep at least a 10-15% cash position to buy when these opportunities present themselves. My income since I retired is based on a pension, dividends, and a few modest rentals. Cash preservation is a priority for me and my bride. I charge less than the market for the quite nice area I rent to and have long term tenants that take good care of my property. One or two months with a bad tenant can ruin that track record. Perhaps one other thing our young investors should consider is real estate, if possible or in their long term plans. They don’t make land anymore.
Had I been privy to the same information some of our senators had last month I would have sold out more just like they did. But no…they bailed while telling everyone things were just fine. What they did was legal as there is no law saying that if a senator or congressman has intelligence that the shit is about to hit the fan they can’t sell their stocks and avoid a loss without letting their fellow citizens know about the information they have. One of these senators is married to the chairman of the NY Stock Exchange and is worth $500,000,000 already but greed has no bounds or morals. The US government is as corrupt as any third world country and will handle this pandemic and financial collapse just as any third world country does. I would like to be wrong but I think not.
True and you have been wise. There may be some bargains coming up in the next year. If a person can catch a failing real estate investment and buy before the lender takes it one could do well. Due diligence though as it may be encumbered by who knows what liens. Once the lender takes it back they’ll hold on until things pick up or manage it themselves. There is a small window that needs ready cash to take advantage of such things.
Get your drift sir, they are rotten players, with a slight if not more tip. One day perhaps, they get a tip and tip over. I am fine with my investment protocols, although not happy now perhaps with the recent downturn, been there, done that, and am looking forward to the next upturn
Collins was on the board of the drug company, that’s true insider trading. A senator or congressman having knowledge of adverse upcoming events does not come under SEC rules or any other rule that has been taken to court. They are dirt bags, especially when they tell they tell the public everything is just fine while they cash out.The STOCK act was supposed to stop this but hasn’t. Sen. Burr who cashed out big time was vehemently opposed to the stock act, naturally.
No one knows when this will end. Sadly in a 401k the options are limited. Once I reached 59.5 years of age I moved all my 401k money into a self directed IRA where I had much more choice.
If you have time and your 401k money is in good funds you’ll recover eventually. Might have to work a bit longer but that will keep you off the streets and out of trouble. 
Chris Collins was a rat bastard for sure. There are many more, he just left a trail of crumbs even Toto and Dorothy could follow.
Dividend payers are nice and have their place, but they are not the end-all cure-all. In times of distress and high volatility, the “flight to safety” can crowd the trade and make them expensive. Growth stocks, particularly small cap growth stocks usually offer better opportunity.
When bargain hunting, zig when others zag. And don’t forget, “Buy when there’s blood in the street.” I recommend “The Million Dollar Portfolio” by David and Tom Gardner for a good investing foundation.
That literally is what the law JCavo sent says—the STOCK ACT applies the prohibition of SEC insider trading to members of Congress. And yeah, it was supposed to stop it, and if it hasn’t it’s cause some member of Congress didn’t follow the law. It will only have failed as a law if the enforcement of criminal provisions is not followed due to politics. You’re defending this crap?!
Dividend payers will always have a place in my portfolio. Have my share of high flyers, and low sinkers. The dividends mostly come through. Every quarter.
I’m afraid to even look at my 401k. I just hope history holds over the long term. I pay a bigger fee for my 401k to be managed. The older I get, the more conservative the investments become.