The green El Faro track shows the course change from SSE to ESE (116°) at 01:30, after:
23:02 - BVS’ mail to captain, to download the last forecast
23:05 - 3M calls the captain for new instructions
23:16 – Navtex shows Joaquin’s center at bearing 111° from El Faro, proceeding at 220°
01:20 - 2M calls the captain to explain the Navtex forecast with the planned course change.
She proposes to go South and to escape through the Crooked Island Channel
If the captain had downloaded the BVS forecast from 23:02, he would have seen that BVS forecasted, for the first time, Joaquin going South of San Salvador Islands.
Times from my timeline >>> https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/el-faro-an-overview/47034?u=urs