I am only going to post this here due to the fact that this is the most read thread in maritime security here. We all know that the attacks on the East coast of Africa are now common and will probably continue to increase. It is not only due to the naval presence in the Gulf of Aden, but it is due to weather conditions and also historical conditions, as this is not a new area, but not quite as active as the GoA.
A couple months ago, we were predicting the attacks off the East Coast only because it made sense. If the naval patrols are interdicting pirates in the GoA, then they will just move to the East coast area.
Therefore what is the nest prediction of adaptation or copy cat attacks? If we look at the reasons for the attacks, poverty, unstable government etc., we can conclude that a very good possibility is the coast of Madagascar.
Recently, there has been a lot of governmental problems in the Madagascar area, and if the model holds true, and the Somali pirates have their connections, then the next area of concern will be off of the South East Madagascar Coast.
What do you think?