# Raising the Bayesian **URL:** \ **Category:** Professional Mariner Forum\ **Created:** [January 9, 2025, 3:13am UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546 "2025-01-09T03:13:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Ausmariner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e274bd/32.png) [@Ausmariner](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Ausmariner)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2025, 3:13am UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/1 "2025-01-09T03:13:24Z")
Salvage experts are quoting 2 months and €15m to raise the wreck. I pose the question……why bother? Remove the distillate, cut off the mast and remove to landfill, record and mark the hull’s resting position and get on with life. Others may have a different viewpoint and perhaps I am missing an important and salient reason. Nevertheless, that is my question. ---
**Author:** ![valvanuz](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/forum.gcaptain.com/valvanuz/32/675_2.png) [@valvanuz](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/valvanuz)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2025, 8:21am UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/2 "2025-01-09T08:21:22Z")
Apparently there are inside the hull safes with very (politically) “sensitive” content… ---
**Author:** ![Ausmariner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e274bd/32.png) [@Ausmariner](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Ausmariner)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2025, 8:43am UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/3 "2025-01-09T08:43:51Z")
I had heard this previously. It raises (no pun intended) the challenge as to why divers are unable to locate these safes and retrieve them with out the necessity of retrieving the entire wreck at great expense and effort. ---
**Author:** ![Steamer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Steamer](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Steamer)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2025, 11:26am UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/4 "2025-01-09T11:26:30Z")
€15m equals 2 or 3 cups of expresso per Italian each year. The training benefits and potential to improve the design and safety of an industry that earns Italy around €29 billion a year seems like a reasonable investment. ---
**Author:** ![Kennebec\_Captain](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/forum.gcaptain.com/kennebec_captain/32/13_2.png) [@Kennebec\_Captain](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Kennebec_Captain)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2025, 11:33am UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/5 "2025-01-09T11:33:05Z")
Are public funds being used? I only skimmed the article but seemed like insurance is paying. > The **yacht** is insured for around $2.1 billion, according to records filed in Italy, which lists several different insurance companies that covered the ship for liability as well as its engine and hull. ---
**Author:** ![Steamer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Steamer](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Steamer)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2025, 11:52am UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/6 "2025-01-09T11:52:51Z")
> [@Kennebec\_Captain](#): > > Are public funds being used? Bottom line is that the “public” pays for every cent paid out by insurance companies. They might write the big check but every single citizen pays them back, one policy increase at a time. ---
**Author:** ![Kennebec\_Captain](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/forum.gcaptain.com/kennebec_captain/32/13_2.png) [@Kennebec\_Captain](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Kennebec_Captain)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2025, 1:03pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/7 "2025-01-10T13:03:51Z")
Apparently the cost of raising is being paid for by Revtom which is controlled by Angela Bacares, Lynch’s widow. Separately the Bayesian hull insurance is reported to be about $40 million and the P&I insurance is estimated to be about $200 - $300 million. So for the most part, evidently the raising of the yacht Bayesian is not being paid directly for by [public funds](https://thelawdictionary.org/public-funds/) (in general, money from taxpayers etc) From [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sunk-superyacht-likely-cost-insurers-least-150-million-experts-say-2024-08-29/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)! ---
**Author:** ![Urs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/958977/32.png) [@Urs](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Urs)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2025, 4:04pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/8 "2025-01-10T16:04:45Z")
> [@Steamer](#): > > …They might write the big check but every single citizen pays them back… Doubtful… the insurers do not calculate their premiums overall for all their different businesses. They do the calculations independently for their small or large sectors. An example is the ‘Costa Concordia’ disaster in January, 2012: The ship’s P&I insurer was the ‘Steamship Mutual’, which had an excess of loss reinsurance with the ‘International Group Reinsurances’ A consortium of large general insurers paid out the loss of the ship (H&M), three months after the sinking. No problems there. For passenger ships, the reinsurer raised the premium for 2013/2014 by 125%, due to the ‘Costa Concordia’. The second steep rise of 39% was for the Dry Cargo sector. There, the removal of the container ship ‘MV Rena’ was the reason, which crashed into the rocks in New Zealand; October, 2011 (during the same premium period of 2011/2012). See here… > **[L.203.pdf](https://www.steamshipmutual.com/sites/default/files/downloads/circulars-london/L.203.pdf)** > > 73.20 KB ---
**Author:** ![float](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8491ac/32.png) [@float](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/float)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2025, 7:25pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/9 "2025-01-10T19:25:15Z")
The insurance industry, besides finance and the NSA, with academia trailing far behind, is the largest employer of top notch mathematicians, because they tend to calculate their risks rather well, rather specifically and rather elaborately. ---
**Author:** ![powerabout](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/43a26b/32.png) [@powerabout](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/powerabout)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2025, 11:58pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/10 "2025-01-10T23:58:09Z")
Pleasure boats here in asia need wreck removal insurance now as the countrys have woken up to the issue where insurers paid out to owners and left the wreck. ---
**Author:** ![salt\_n\_steel](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/forum.gcaptain.com/salt_n_steel/32/1367_2.png) [@salt\_n\_steel](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/salt_n_steel)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2025, 4:30pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/11 "2025-01-11T16:30:35Z")
I think it will be very interesting to see the wreck on the surface after several months on the bottom. If it’s in any decent condition an entrepreneur with a lot of resources could conceivably refit it. (Likely with a shorter mast). ---
**Author:** ![powerabout](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/43a26b/32.png) [@powerabout](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/powerabout)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2025, 1:09pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/12 "2025-01-12T13:09:14Z")
still got to work out where the water came in to sink it so fast. Especially when the divers say they cant see anything wrong with it ---
**Author:** ![Binbag\_the\_Saylore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Binbag\_the\_Saylore](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Binbag_the_Saylore)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2025, 5:33pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/13 "2025-01-12T17:33:56Z")
It’s been a standard requirement everywhere for years now - e.g… ![image](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/uploads/gcaptain_maritime_forum/original/3X/c/f/cfbef22bd6956cbb78f149815e584300e49f936c.png) ---
**Author:** ![Binbag\_the\_Saylore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Binbag\_the\_Saylore](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Binbag_the_Saylore)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2025, 3:35pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/14 "2025-01-19T15:35:21Z")
> **[Il Bayesian resta ancora nei fondali di Porticello, il recupero slitta in...](https://palermo.gds.it/articoli/cronaca/2025/01/15/il-bayesian-resta-ancora-nel-fondo-di-porticello-il-recupero-slitta-alla-primavera-b4949745-44dc-4cbb-9e55-e1b6f95768ee/)** > > Il recupero del Bayesian, affondato nella notte del 19 agosto dell’anno scorso nella rada di Porticello, non potrà avvenire prima della prossima primavera. La... Salvage of sunken #bayesianyacht delayed until spring. A few more months of electrolysis and fouling/growth will fudge everything nicely for Perini/ISG ---
**Author:** ![Urs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/958977/32.png) [@Urs](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Urs)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2025, 1:18am UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/15 "2025-03-03T01:18:17Z")
By order of the Public Attorney, the Bayesian will be raised after April 20, 2025; works finished on May 25, 2025. All costs will be charged to the owner and the insurer. The 75-meter-mast will be cut at the bottom. The fuel in the tank will be removed only when in port. [https://palermo.gds.it/articoli/cronaca/2025/02/27/il-veliero-bayesian-affondato-a-porticello-sara-recuperato-dal-20-aprile-al-10-maggio-il-punto-sulle-indagini-37f3864c-15a2-4a39-a25f-c5dbf0d07d29/](https://palermo.gds.it/articoli/cronaca/2025/02/27/il-veliero-bayesian-affondato-a-porticello-sara-recuperato-dal-20-aprile-al-10-maggio-il-punto-sulle-indagini-37f3864c-15a2-4a39-a25f-c5dbf0d07d29/) ---
**Author:** ![Binbag\_the\_Saylore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Binbag\_the\_Saylore](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Binbag_the_Saylore)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2025, 1:16pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/16 "2025-04-27T13:16:26Z")
Update yesterday from local news [Bayesian, recovery operations will begin on April 30: bans are triggered - Giornale di Sicilia](https://palermo.gds.it/articoli/cronaca/2025/04/26/bayesian-le-operazioni-di-recupero-inizieranno-il-30-aprile-scattano-i-divieti-cc2f8d1f-7a44-4786-8312-2847d5721486/) "\*Port Authority, has informed the recovery operations… will begin on April 30. \* _The forbidden area .. 650 meters from sailing ship .. will be closed from April 30 and until the completion. The operations are entrusted to Hebo Maritiemservice and Smit International … Hebo Lift2 and Hebo Lift 10.._ _In the off-limits area it is forbidden to sail, anchor or stop with any boat. Scuba diving, bathing and fishing activities are also prohibited. Overflight is also prohibited over the area. Once recovered, the Bayesian will be transported to the port of Termini Imerese._" ---
**Author:** ![Earl\_Boebert1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/forum.gcaptain.com/earl_boebert1/32/116_2.png) [@Earl\_Boebert1](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Earl_Boebert1)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2025, 12:23pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/17 "2025-04-27T12:23:29Z")
From the Times of London: > **[Raising the Bayesian yacht: a giant saw and an 83m sea crane](https://www.thetimes.com/article/b2d541bc-6966-4ceb-8b98-9e894e8419c1?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Briefing%2C%20Sunday%2027%20April%202025&utm_term=audience_BEST_OF_TIMES)** > > The tycoon Mike Lynch, his daughter Hannah and five others died when his vessel sank in August. Now it is being lifted to discover why it went down so quickly Behind a paywall, so the takeaways: Waiting on weather, job expected to be straightforward, Hebo Lift 10 will do it. Cut off mast and raise it first, then get cables under the hull, right it, and lift with fuel still in tanks. Take it to Termini Immerse and set it down on a closed dock for inspection. Expected to be a media spectacle, local accommodations already sold out. Earl ---
**Author:** ![powerabout](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/43a26b/32.png) [@powerabout](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/powerabout)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2025, 12:29pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/18 "2025-04-28T12:29:39Z")
Cant wait to find out where the water got in to sink it so quickly ---
**Author:** ![Kennebec\_Captain](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/forum.gcaptain.com/kennebec_captain/32/13_2.png) [@Kennebec\_Captain](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/Kennebec_Captain)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2025, 1:33pm UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/19 "2025-04-28T13:33:11Z")
I’d guess there’s about a 90% chance the threads here on the sinking of the Bayesian were correct. The dynamic wind load on the mast, the sunken deck entryways to the cabin and the non-functioning watertight doors in the cabin. I don’t expect any of that to be confirmed until the accident report comes out. ---
**Author:** ![powerabout](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/43a26b/32.png) [@powerabout](https://forum.gcaptain.com/u/powerabout)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 12:06am UTC](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546/20 "2025-04-29T00:06:05Z")
It was MCA complant build, so floats with 2 compartments flooded. Swim platform is on port and it went down healed to stb it will be interesting… [Next page](https://forum.gcaptain.com/t/raising-the-bayesian/71546.md?page=2)