Listen to all of the rig and boat companies recent earning conference calls. None of them see anything positive on the horizon this year regardless of what OPEC does. The majors will have to see 6-12 months of sustained prices above $70 before they even consider expensive offshore projects. Just about every company will need a year to get their books out of the red. I would say 2017 will be a bloodbath but everyone has already bled out.
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[QUOTE=Fraqrat;195460]Listen to all of the rig and boat companies recent earning conference calls. None of them see anything positive on the horizon this year regardless of what OPEC does. The majors will have to see 6-12 months of sustained prices above $70 before they even consider expensive offshore projects. Just about every company will need a year to get their books out of the red. I would say 2017 will be a bloodbath but everyone has already bled out.[/QUOTE]
Thanks for your accurate and well informed explanation of where the offshore oil industry stands. It seems that sometimes well-intentioned, but under-informed folks get a little too excited and start extrapolating slightly positive news for land drilling into a premature renaissance for offshore drilling. Any meaningful upturn in offshore employment is probably at least three to five years away.
I think that a modest recovery in non-oil patch related tug and barge employment is probably about two years away.
This is is a good time to be dusting off non-maritime skills and to be working shoreside for the next few years.
[QUOTE=tugsailor;195465]Thanks for your accurate and well informed explanation of where the offshore oil industry stands. It seems that sometimes well-intentioned, but under-informed folks get a little too excited and start extrapolating slightly positive news for land drilling into a premature renaissance for offshore drilling. Any meaningful upturn in offshore employment is probably at least three to five years away.
I think that a modest recovery in non-oil patch related tug and barge employment is probably about two years away.
This is is a good time to be dusting off non-maritime skills and to be working shoreside for the next few years.[/QUOTE]
This crisis started because of the US frackers producing too much oil to sustain the price for other producers.
If the rising price causes them to put rigs back in activity and saturating the market, it will cause the price to stagnate at or below $60/Bbl.
Since deep water and remote location oil require >$70/Bbl. to be viable you are VERY right, the possibility of a major improvement in that sector in the Gom is not likely for some years yet.
The option is to reduce exploration and production costs to below that limit, or to increase efforts in shallow waters at low costs.
That favour under-explored areas in the North Sea, West Africa, the Middle-east, S.E.Asia and China. There is little prospects left in shallow water GoM.
Shallow water Arctic MAY offer some good prospects, but only if the risk is at acceptable levels, but this does NOT include Alaska and Canada due to a ban on exploration in their waters.
[QUOTE=Fraqrat;195460]Listen to all of the rig and boat companies recent earning conference calls. None of them see anything positive on the horizon this year regardless of what OPEC does. The majors will have to see 6-12 months of sustained prices above $70 before they even consider expensive offshore projects. Just about every company will need a year to get their books out of the red. I would say 2017 will be a bloodbath but everyone has already bled out.[/QUOTE]
Thanks for your thoughtful analysis
Iâm not an economist, but this is a bit of a simplistic view. Most fracing produces gas, the OPEC had something to do with it, and as tasteless and disgusting as it is: the prices got a nice sustained and totally artificial boost from 9/11 and the wars that followed. The hallmarks of a downturn were there prior to 9/11, and wars can only support spending, demand, and scarcity fears until a peace breaks out. The prices have never been geo-technically driven, rarely been real-supply driven, and always been politically driven.
Shallow water Arctic MAY offer some good prospects, but only if the risk is at acceptable levels, but this does NOT include Alaska and Canada due to a ban on exploration in their waters.
Canât speak for AK, but our Arctic ban is both locally unpopular (because they want the jobs and because they resent Ottawa making decrees without consulting them) and temporary. There are strategic reasons to build infrastructure in the North (Russia is beating the rest of the world by an easy lightyear in northern development), but the business case isnât all that strong right now.
GREAT NEWS!!!
This isnât great news, once they bid and secure the lease they have like 10 years to do something with it. They will just sit on it til the market gets better. This will have no immediate impact on bringing jobs back to the GOM.
[QUOTE=Fraqrat;195923]This isnât great news, once they bid and secure the lease they have like 10 years to do something with it. They will just sit on it til the market gets better. This will have no immediate impact on bringing jobs back to the GOM.[/QUOTE]
Santa ainât real?!?
As long as this is a concern things are not gonna get better anytime soon.
[I][B][SIZE=5]Maybe I put a gris gris on 'em[/SIZE][/B][/I]
[QUOTE=Fraqrat;195923]This isnât great news, once they bid and secure the lease they have like 10 years to do something with it. They will just sit on it til the market gets better. This will have no immediate impact on bringing jobs back to the GOM.[/QUOTE]
I am very aware of the lease sales in the GOM and the process.
A family member has worked for Mineral Management Systems and the purchasing of the leases in the GOM for over 30 years.
Never said âthis would be an immediate impact on bringing jobs to the GOMâ, but I am very optimistic along with many others, that this is a very positive movement for the oil industry. (taking one step at a time).
With all the new green energy movement stuff I doubt it and Iâm glad. GoM oil money was for bigoted misogynists, BBC and oil tycoonâs daughters with an affinity for it. Girl power or BBC? I think they take BBC any time! What can I say, canât blame 'em. We all have our weaknessesâŚ
What does the British Broadcasting Corporation have to do with any of this?
Translated from E24:
EIA adjust the forecasts for oil production and higher prices03/08/2017¡ Ingvild Sagmoen
US Energy Information Agency (EIA) will adjust up their forecasts for oil production over the next two years. EIA now projects an average American output of 9.21 million barrels of oil per day in 2017, up from the previous forecast of 8.98 million. For 2018 the EIA estimates 9.73 million barrels per day, up from 9.53 million in the previous estimate.
Also price expectations for this year are more positive. Now think EIA at an average price of WTI oil at $ 53.49 per barrel and Brent crude at $ 54.62 per barrel.
With increased crude oil production in the US the export will likely increase as well, thus keeping the prices at around present level for the foreseeable future. (Unless you get another war going somewhere to hot up things)
[QUOTE=Flyer69;195980]What does the British Broadcasting Corporation have to do with any of this?[/QUOTE]
I heard one of the oil companies daughterâs just LOVES bbc I mean just absolutely ADORES it and will do anything for it!! 00oops! I mean themâŚBritish Broadcasting Network that is! Why do think there are so many british guys working out there???
Its not, I would say we are circling the drain but there is no more water in the bowl. The industry is a giant dried up turd stuck to the bottom of the toilet. This is my fourth one of these to live through they keep getting worse each time. In 01 there appeared to be light at the end of the tunnel from the bust of 99. Then 9-11 happened and there went the little bit of ground we gained. We spent every hitch from the end of 01 until Katrina in 05 wondering if this hitch would be the last. This is how things are right now and itâs not going to get better this calendar year.
What!? What are you even talking about? At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
What in the blue fuck are you babbling on about?? Donât you have batteries to go test?
[QUOTE=Bayrunner;195990]What in the blue fuck are you babbling on about?? Donât you have batteries to go test?[/QUOTE]
Iâll just wait and let you two figure it outâŚtic tocâŚtic tocâŚyea this might be awhile
[QUOTE=Bayrunner;195990]What in the blue fuck are you babbling on about?? Donât you have batteries to go test?[/QUOTE]
Blue? no. but youâre on the right track.