Understanding China


#561

Norwegian owned REC Silicon produces Silesia for solar panels at their production facilities, include two U.S. based silicon materials plants in Moses Lake, WA, and Butte, Montana.
Due to the trade war their largest export market in China has dried up and 85 US workers have lost their jobs:


So much for saving US jobs.

REC group have a large solar panel plant in Singapore that import their Silesia from USA, but they have problem because their main market is in USA and affected by the tariffs imposed on imported Solar Panels there. A vicious circle created by the Trump policy of “America First”, which turns into “America alone”,

So you say the easy solution is to produce the Solar Panels in USA?
Well, it doesn’t work that way, since the US market for both Silesia and Solar Panels are too small to sustain the capacity of the existing US plants and the cost of producing Solar Panels in the US is too high for the export market.


#562

Usually your use of English words that have a family resemblance to the one you’re looking for is just mildly amusing; but this one is confusing. Silesia is a historical place now part of Poland. Were you trying to say silicon, polysilicon, or ???


#563

I think it’s Silane Gas he is talking about, or silicon which is called silisium in Norwegian.


#564

Maybe I should have used the term “polysilicium”, which is synonym with “polysilicon” and frequently shortened to “silicum” or “silicon”.
The misspelling was probably because I was first reading this article in Norwegian:


It probably didn’t make much difference to the understanding of the post, but just in case I’ll apologise for this grave mistake.


#565

In my reading “Silicium” as a name for silicon was superseded by “silicon” in 1817 – I’ve been around silicon in the electronics industry for many years and never heard it called silicium until you just did. My searching (duckduckgo) found no obvious connections with silesia. So I really was confused about what exactly you were speaking of.

But calling a (likely autocorrect) wrong word a “grave mistake” is of course sarcasm, so I’ll take the completely unnecessary apology in the spirit in which it was given. :slight_smile:


#566

Yamal LNG arrives in China


#567

The trade war with China is going to cost US tax payers a pile of money:


And this is just the first instalment.


#568

Yes it will. Whether the voters are willing to withstand this short term pain in pursuit of the long term good will determine the fate of the country. We’ll know a lot of the answer to that in 4 months and the whole answer in Nov 2020.


#569

you could leave things as they were and just send $300 billion over every year while the Chinese tax American imports and the USA doesnt tax any Chinese imports.
Even a $100 billion farm subsidy and you would still be better off with some tariffs


#570

China’s regional influence keeps growing, the axis of power continues to tip to the Far East:


#571

and not just the Far East.. At least some are catching on.

I’m so disturbed that the Chinese diaspora is (apparently) being leveraged for foreign influencing. The Canadian Chinese diaspora is seen to be large, powerful, and wealthy. They all ready come under suspicion for those reasons. Its not good for us when we’re looking at each distrustfully, but maybe there’s a reason not to trust? Or maybe someone has a reason to make us untrusting? Disturbed.

Social engineering has apparently taken a useful step forward, so how to know?


#572

That is an interesting take. China has tens of thousands of students in the UK, and probably across Europe. Some will settle and become citizens.

What is interesting is that in the Trump / China trade war China is dong what Trump should be doing. 2020 may be too long to wait.


#573

China is not likely to trust anything said by Trump, or promised by anybody in his administration.
You cannot expect them to be played twice:

Without it being in the form of a binding agreement and in accordance with WTO rules and regulation, no deal.


#574

The story we are being told is that even binding WTO agreements aren’t being honoured.


#575

Nice to see the EU has faced up to reality and were very quick to solve the tariff issue.
(I notice its tariff free for everything except cars stuff meaning Trump agreed not to add any?)
It will be funny if the USA moves the soybean volume from china to the EU, that will upset a few locals in china and do wonders for the price no doubt

Where is China in solving the issue…still sulking?


#576

Kikomans will not be troubled. Monolithic commodity trades between continnents sill still go on.

From today’s LL

True impact of China-US trade war to be felt in next year’s peak season

Prospect of fundamental supply chain shifts in the long term if situation continues to escalate

30 Jul 2018

by Mike King

Fundamental changes could be seen in the supply chain in the long term.

ANY bump in ocean volumes ahead of the first raft of US tariffs on Chinese products implemented on July 6 may have been minimal, but one analyst believes the true impact of a Sino-US trade war will be felt in next year’s peak season.

Earlier this month, US president Donald Trump followed through on his promise that the US would enforce 25% tariffs on $50bn worth of Chinese goods, with the first batch covering some 818 product categories valued at $34bn taking effect on July 6.

Gregory Nichols, Asia principal at Tradewin, the trade consultant subsidiary of freight forwarder Expeditors, told Lloyd’s List that for the most part, the Chinese goods covered by the special import tariffs were not finished consumer goods such as apparel, footwear, toys and household goods.

As a result, the impact on the retail peak season would likely be minimal this year, unless new, expanded tariffs kicked in before October, which was unlikely.

“If the rhetoric from the Trump administration continues at the current pace and/or new tariffs are announced, then the impact on next year’s peak season could be significant as companies urgently look to source from vendors in alternate countries,” he said.

The pros and cons of a second round of tariffs on Chinese products are being discussed in the US. “There is another list of 6,000 harmonised system sub-headings, which was published on July 10, of Chinese goods that could be subject to special 10% import duties,” Mr Nichols said.

These will go through rounds of public hearings throughout August. Any new tariffs on these products would be unlikely to come into effect before mid-September.

“This list includes most categories of manufactured goods but again excludes apparel and footwear,” Mr Nichols said. “Some other consumer goods such as furniture are included.”

More long-term, Mr Nichols said fundamental supply chain shifts could be expected.

“For sure China is being thought of by US importers as a much riskier sourcing origin than it ever has been in the past,” he said. “We have seen a few examples of companies who have put planned manufacturing expansion in China on hold.

“We have also seen companies who are starting to move production of certain covered goods to alternate manufacturing sites. If this continues to play out in an ever-escalating fashion, the long-term effects could be transformational.”

He said that if the US market became cost-prohibitive for Chinese suppliers they would seek out new markets for their goods.

“This may lead to intense price competition that may in turn lead to concerns of dumping in the EU, Southeast Asia and other global markets.”


#577

COSCO still taking market share


#578

And the OBOR rolls on…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-08-01/china-s-empire-of-money-is-reshaping-lives-across-new-silk-road


#579

While the US and China fight out a trade war that nobody can win, European and Chinese brewers join forces to promote high-end imported brands in China and Chinese brands in the rest of the world (minus USA??):


#580

China will impose retaliatory tariffs on US LNG. Will this hurt China or US the most?
According to this Fairplay article US LNG was only 3.9% of Chinese LNG import in 2017 and can be easily replaced with import from other sources, incl. Yamal gas via NSR:

It may have a much larger impact on the US LNG export, which is in it’s infancy and need markets:
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2018/8/3/billions-at-risk-for-us-lng-exports-on-china-25-tariffs