From Tradewinds, looks like a lot of laid up vessels will be worthless:
Clarksons Platou: most charterers will reject laid-up OSVs
Industry survey reveals tough stance of oil companies towards long-term idle tonnage.
September 6th, 2017 11:00 GMT
by Gary Dixon
Published in Offshore
A survey of shipping players has revealed that most charterers will refuse to employ offshore support vessels (OSVs) that have been laid up for more than one or two years.
Clarksons Platou Securities asked 1,700 industry figures for their thoughts on the struggling sector and 258 responded, including owners, brokers and charterers.
A total of 77% of charterers indicated they would not accept a vessel laid-up for two years or more, and 69% said they would not accept a unit that had been out of the market for a year or more.
As idle ships make up 25% of the global fleet, this could have a profound effect on vessel use.
Clarksons said that if OSVs stacked for two years or more are excluded, utilisation stands at 62% at the current demand level.
Getting rid of ships laid up for one year or more boosts the figure to 69%.
Turner Holm, managing director of equity and credit research at Clarksons Platou Securites, said: "Only 10% of owners said they would reactivate a vessel without a contract, which surprised us given the history of speculative behaviour in the OSV industry.
“Almost two of three owners (64%) said they would require a contract that at least pays for the reactivation cost in order to reactivate a stacked vessel.”
In this case, one-year term rates would need to rise from $7,800 per day now to $12,000 to entice owners to move vessels out of layup, the broker calculated.
Better times ahead?
The survey revealed three main conclusions: that activity is very unlikely to fall in the next 12 months, and will probably rise; that supply may be tighter than previously thought; and the market is heading for balance or better within three years.
A huge 94% of respondents said they expected ship demand to rise or remain stable over the next year.
Only 6% expected this to fall.
Clarksons believes the OSV market could reach a balance if all vessels stacked for two years or more are excluded and demand were to rise 15% to 2,000 vessels, which was the level experienced in 2012.
“A 15% improvement in demand by 2019 is not far-fetched in our view,” it said.
"Note that OSV demand from servicing existing production should be significantly higher in 2019 compared to 2012 because the installed base of offshore platforms will have grown 20% in that period.
“In 2012 we estimate that production support absorbed 1,200 vessels, but with the growth in offshore infrastructure we think by 2H19 production support will absorb 1,400 vessels.”