Refuting Ombugge's left wing rhetoric


#302

In general since the arrival of the pilgrims in 1620 it’s been thought the the arrival of immigrants has increased the size of the economy. Now the thinking is each immigrant takes someones’ job.

When did the dynamics of the economy change?


#303

When the quantity of quality jobs becomes limited to the point that citizens and immigrants are directly competing for those limited jobs and the resulting depression on wages negatively affects the quality of life of the citizenry.

As far as when that happened, it wasn’t a single date. Rather the result of decades of policy that has gutted America’s core industries (Good living wage jobs) both by sending the jobs away and importing cheap labor to fill those that remain.


#304

I think the dynamics today are similar to when immigration reached its previous peak in 1915.

As in 1915, about 15% of the US population is now foreign born. That seems to be a breaking point.

There has been too much immigration too fast (and for the wrong reasons) in the past 30 years. Just as in 1915, there is a public backlash and immigration will be curtailed for the next 20 years or so.

The immigration cycle will undoubtedly repeat itself many times far into the future.


#305

I don’t know though… With automation progressing as it is I wonder not only if we’ll ever need more people but if we might not too many as it stands now.

I realize we’ve seen this before too (industrial revolution for example) but it seems like this current level of automation/machine learning is damn near eliminating the need for humans all together.


#306

FYI: Europe Population 2018 –748.24 Million. (estimated)

That is true when you include the European part of Russia, otherwise it is 635 mill.
The European Union have a population of 507 Mill (2015)

The GDP figure you quote is for the EU only, but yes the US comes out ahead in GDP per capita. (less so in GDP PPP)

But when it comes to how the wealth is distributed you would be better off in Europe than in USA, unless you belong to the upper 1% or 10%:

The above from this article from World Economic Forum:

Now for the belief that Europe doesn’t take in as many emigrants as USA:


#307

Yes you have a point, automation and AI is changing things much faster than anything before.
But with the present “full employment” in the US (unemployment <4.1%) and call for all lost manufacturing jobs to return, where is the work force going to come from unless from automation?

You could of course bring in more skilled immigrants, but that doesn’t appear to be very popular at the moment.

You could end up in a vicious circle; shortage of labour = raising labour costs = higher prices = less export = higher trade deficit. So what is the gain?


#308

There’s no reason anyone should care about my views on this, having said that…

I just wanted to point out that not everyone agreed with assumption that each immigrant takes someone jobs. There is a view the the economy has second order effects that immigration may be a net benefit. There are more persuasive arguments then the libtards trying to destroy America.

As far as social unrest, that’s more likely when the pie is shrinking. The argument that the financial elites deliberately cause social unrest while they loot the economy fits the facts on the ground to some extent.


#309

You yourself have noted this figure is misleading as our labor force participation rate is no where near full… Come on now…


#310

The unemployment rate in the US is a big lie.

It only measures people in regular jobs that are in the unemployment benefits system who are actively looking for work.

It does not measure unemployed workers who do not qualify for unemployment benefits. It does not measure the unemployed self-employed. It does not measure unemployed “gig” workers. It does not measure contract workers. It does not measure the long term unemployed who have dropped out of the work force. It does not measure a large share of illegal immigrant workers that are unemployed. It does not measure unemployed workers in illegal occupations. It does not measure anyone that normally works in “under the table” employment, which is a significant segment of the US workforce.

The unemployment rate does not measure “under-employment.” There are a lot of educated highly skilled people that normally earn good wages, but cannot find jobs in their fields, or cannot find jobs that pay half the normal wages in there field. For example, MARINERS, machinists, certain types of engineers, lawyers, college professors, some types of social workers, and liberal arts majors in general.

The official unemployment rate is absolute bullshit.


#311

From Foreign Policy a year ago:

(Highlighted by me)


#312

The industry comes back because of automation and or due to taxation issues.
( A chip plant shutdown in Singapore the other day and moved back to the USA, they said no point being in Asia any more due to the above 2 reasons)
Economic output per person is a gauge and that is where you should get productivity gains not by just dumping immigrants in your country to get a GDP increase and with cheap labour the productivity lowers.
Dumping immigrants helps the industries that supply food and shelter and thats it for a long time.
Case in point Singapore, has very low productivity due to all the unskilled cheap workers keeping the top few in a comfortable life.
Many industries struggle to compete as they dont know how once the cheap foreign labour costs start climbing.


#313

To Hawespiper et all:
FYI
Getting somewhat tired of the rethoric that local workers in the maritime industry are being replaced by less earning foreign workers with H3B visas etc.
Have worked in the maritime electronics field since 1963, a couple of years as a Radio-Officer and in different countries as marine electronics service engineer and positions in service management.
As y’all may know there is no vocational training in the US for this line of work and as a matter of fact for many other lines of work and it is no secret that is virtually impossible to find engineers with the skill-set and mindset to do this work, particularly with the hours involved. These are no 9 to 5 jobs. The Maritime service industry is very demanding, 24 hrs, 365 days. It’s also no secret to see many foreigners, immigrants, expats or what-you-may call them at companies providing service to the Maritime industry, whether it be mechanical, electrical, automation or electronics and as surveyors with the major IACS companies and or in management positions in shipping companies other than the traditional Jones Act companies.
These persons do not replace typical US born workers, no they fill a void because local skilled persons with the desire to work odd hours are very difficult to find. And foreigners often have a better basic technical education.
Have hired a fair number of foreign engineers, from Europe, Middle East and Far East and in addition to their relocation and settlement expenses paid them exactly the same wages as their US born and based counterparts. And provided them with legal council to obtain permanent resident visa when they became eligible.

NOTE: Hawespiper is “cold-grounder” in Dutch, which is a maritime officer who started his career “before the mast” as a deck hand or a/b. Usually well skilled and informed and as such you should know better.


#314

An interesting study would be to compare the US’s unemployment and underemployment rate with that of Germany, Switzerland, Austria and the Scandinavian countries. They keep good statistics so it should be easy.


#315

Nearest I can find is OECD unemployment statistics from 2005-16:

There is also a scholarly study of Underemployment and temp work in the Nordic countries, but no comparison to USA: adapt.it/adapt-indice-a-z/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/haataja_2014.pdf

Yes the European countries does keep good statistics, but how reliable are the US statistics on such matters??


#316

Not so good in India
but back when I was in India around 2000 the paper said it was 97% unemployable so its getting better now…


#317

Yes I agree, no vocational training in the USA leaves lots of skill sets lacking that some other countries can fill


#318

This is what I’m talking about.

If people aren’t taking the job you’re posting, you need to raise your wages. Instead we have a system where employers such as yourself can post a job for a below market wage (but a great wage compared to what’s offered in New Delhi) and when it goes unfilled, you say “see? I tried to get an American but they aren’t available so I need an H1-B”. This is the suppression of wages we’ve talked about here.

It’s called supply and demand. Introduce an external source of additional supply into a demand for labor and the price point goes down. As a businessman you should know better… Which I’m sure you do… I’m sure you know damned well what you’re doing. Just don’t come in here selling shit sandwiches and complaining that Americans aren’t buying.


#319

To be an American is not a marketable skill by itself. You need to have something else to offer.
He just stated that he pays the same to imported technicians from Europe, Middle East and Far East (nothing mentioned about India) as what is earned by Americans.


#320

Let me correct your statement:


#321

I know… Not saying it is… What I AM saying is that our elected officials who are supposed to represent the American people should offer protections for Americans when it comes to jobs in America.

I know you don’t agree and that’s fine. You feel the company should be free to hire whoever they want from wherever they want. I get it… And I couldn’t disagree more.