Navy and South China Sea


#41

Problem is nobody knows where the Chinese will make up a story about their territory next?
I hear they might be after Pedra Branca next, lol


#42

Then based on your experience I presume that you agree with me that any assertions about the degree to which an action by the Chinese is driven by settled policy or internal politics is pure speculation on our parts.

Cheers,

Earl


#43

I presume that depends on how well anyone know China, Chinese people, Chinese thinking and Chinese history.

Chinese actions are usually deliberate, well planned and not “spur of the moment”. They have had a few thousand years to learn the art of politics and are not in a hurry to meet the next goal.

I also presume there are nobody on this forum who have the knowledge to answer your question fully.


#44

I just posted about this: More Information Leads to Worse Decisions

If the assumptions you start with are incorrect or you’ve framed the problem wrong then more information might just cause an unjustified increase in confidence.


#45

Oh yes, I read that one, although I didn’t participate.in the discussion.

I presume it has something to do with the accuracy of the information you receive in the first place and your ability to understand if it is inaccurate, propaganda, deliberately misleading, or what is now popularly called “fake news”.

There are, and always have been, a lot of such things being circulated to gullible people and called information, which leads people to draw wrong conclusions and ultimately make bad decisions.

It is hard to find reliable information on China and Chinese policy in western media. It is mostly tinted by preconceived perceptions, lack of actual knowledge, or deliberately slanted to fit an agenda as wanted for political purposes.

Checking several sources and having a healthy scepticism helps to shift through the information and make up your own mind where the truth lays. Nobody is always right, but it helps to detect and expose falsehood and hypocrisy on all sides.


#46

The only thing that remains true is ‘Power Corrupts and Absolute Power Absolutely Corrupts’
Those in power need to prove to the punters they need to be in power by any means.

Press freedoms all have massive clampdowns in Asia/Russia, prison is the result.
Do you notice that in Asia the issue of fake news is taken very seriously, prison now in many countries, sounds like scared governments to me. Who decides what is fake news?

Seems to me the western governments can deal with this without the above…


#47

That is easy to answer; whatever is reported that you don’t like is “fake news”.
How do I know? I got it from the highest office in the “free world”.


#48

The second Chinese carrier is ready for commissioning and to start work-up soon:

A third carrier (Type 002) is under construction in Dalian.


#49

Doubtful we’ll see a war between china and usa, like russia, proxy states will be used as this expresses resolve and shows how far one or the other can go. This reasoning probably prevails in the financial community…There is so much money passing between these countries and so many people, corporations, politicians etc. making it that having a war just isn’t worth the money. During the cold war one of the USA Generals tried ‘pushing’ a Chinese general. His off hand reply “so we lose a million or two” pretty much shut down the American General.
There are more immediate and serious threats but to see a china navy the biggest on earth makes one think. Despite the ban I believe one or the other (prob USA) will find a way to “legally” weaponize space which obviates any navy.


#50

Proxy wars are going on right now in the Middle East and Africa, but I don’t see China presently being involved in any. They prefer to fight their “wars” with soft power and aid without strings.

I doubt that any of the countries surrounding the South China Sea will be enticed into fighting a proxy war on behalf of any of the big powers of our time.

That includes Taiwan. They are not dumb enough to antagonize China, or to thrust USA to come to their aid if the do.


#51

This is how the South China Sea will be solved. Between the parties involved, not by anybody from the other side of the world that have no stake in the matter:


#52

what happened the the UN agreement China signed in the 50’s?


#53

Which UN agreement are you referring to??
China (PRC) was not a member of UN in the 1950’s The seat at the SC was held by ROC (Taiwan)


#54

your right I was referring to this, was later than I thought.

12 miles and a few islands…


#55

China:

Population: 1,379 Million
GDP: $11,200 Billion

Vietnam:

Population: 93 Million
GDP: $203 Billion

Yes, I am sure these two nations will be able to sit down at the table together as equals and come to an understanding. I wonder how that would go?

China: I claim all of your territorial waters.
Vietnam: I grant you none of my territorial waters.
China: Ok, I compromise and only claim half of your territorial waters.
Vietnam: I grant you none of my territorial waters.
China: You are unwilling to compromise? Then negotiations are over! If only we had one of the largest navies on earth to enforce our claims. Oh wait…

Look at it this way: the Vietnamese take the Chinese threat so seriously they’re working with us to bolster their claims.


#56

Why do you assume that a large and powerful China cannot negotiate on equal terms with Vietnam?
China and the Chinese are pragmatists and know how to handle smaller countries with respect, not contempt.

They know the humiliation of being the underdog. In their recent history the Chinese were forced into unequal deals by stronger and arrogant western nations. They are also skilled negotiators who knows how to use their strength to their advantage, without humiliating their counterpart.

Not directly related; recently US trade negotiators demand that South Korea must allow more import of US made cars. South Korea gracefully bowed to pressure and increased the quota from 25000 units/yr/manufacturer to 50000 units.

Great American negotiating success, right?? Well, not really. No American car manufacturer had managed to fill their quota the last few years. In fact the best had sold just 13150 unit/yr.:
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-cars-a-tough-sell-in-south-korea-even-as-trump-targets-trade-deal-2017-7?r=US&IR=T&IR=T


#57

"China and the Chinese are pragmatists and know how to handle smaller countries with respect, not contempt".

you must be joking, coastguard patrol boats in Malaysians waters off KK telling drilling rigs to get out of chinese waters, how far is that from China??
They are just becoming bullies with their newfound muscle

Why would the yanks export to china when they make cars there and in GM’s case export them to the USA
The Buick Envision was responsible for 228,257 sales last year ( 2016) in China and 32,000 exported to the USA, just like apple phones?


#58

Further to my above;


#59

The case of Pedra Branca will be heard by the ICJ again this June:
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/icj-hold-public-hearings-malaysias-challenge-pedra-branca-judgement


#60

The US does make good cars, including Ford, GM, Chrysler (Fiat), Honda, Toyota, VW, BMW, Mercedes, etc.

I really doubt if there is any meaningful difference between US, European, or Korean safety standards. All of the cars are safe enough.

Safety standards are just another non-tariff barrier. If Korea does not think US cars are safe enough, then the US should withdraw 50,000 troops and let the Koreans see if that makes them feel safer.

Just as many Americans like the status and perception of quality of foreign cars, people elsewhere in the world like the status and larger size of US cars.