The Pottery Barn rule, wrt Iraq.
Bounded rationality applies regardless if you’re in the wheelhouse at night approaching a TC or planning an invasion.
Not to say rules of thumb can’t be wrong or don’t apply. This is same argument I was making in the thread Why the gcaptain forum sometimes gets it wrong.
The rule of thumb being that the cause of a serious incident involving a big tanker is going to be an unforeseen chain of events that will only resolve with an investigation. The additional information about the old steamship route shouldn’t have been enough to abandon the rule.