well one should know that there are different bankruptcy filings. chapter 7 is the type of bankruptcy where the assets of the corporation are all sold and the operations cease. chapter 11 and 13 allow the company to continue to operate but under the oversight of a bankruptcy judge.
in a case of a chapter 7 liquidation, the fallout through the industry would be a bloodbath as more and more lenders to other offshore operators want to get their money back before the asset values plunge to zero so then it becomes a domino effect as more and more companies get forced by their lenders to file. in such a world, as in a nuclear war, nobody can win and everyone loses...the companies, the lenders and shareholders so I believe that we will not see a chapter 7 liquidation being filed by HOS if this downturn continues for another year (which I fully expect). HOS is big enough and has enough market share to convince a bankruptcy court that they have a good chance to survive overall and that judge will agree and then tell the bondholders and other lenders to just be patient and wait after a chapter 11 filing. it would then give protection to a lender to step in to keep the company alive knowing that the capital they put in will have the top priority to being repaid.
I see HOS surviving but smaller companies in the same state of financial health are very likely doomed as their liquidation will not destroy the industry. I just wished we could see behind the iron curtain into the state of ECO's financial health? How leveraged is Massa Gary? How much money has he borrowed before the downturn? Most operators do not self finance all their growth especially when money is cheap so I expect Gary to be in hock quite deep but then don Chouest is Darth Vader who possesses "the force" to bend the will of those he owes money to.